pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You were one of the first people I thought of on that Euro run. It was bittersweet since it came at end of week with entire weekend to recoup, but the NW extension in PA got kind of shafted that run. Experience on these types of systems leads me to believe the NW side will be more expanded. And all of 81 didn't get the shaft After looking at the Euro qpf outputs, I thought the same thing as this is a true Miller A and the Euro's NW qpf bias the "donut hole" should fill in as currently modeled. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 00z parallel Euro (hi-res upgrade which goes "live" in March) buries State College and has a MECS for the southeast 2/3rd of PA. No idea on its track record, so take it for what it is...still in test mode. I hope it passes the test.... Nice to see you back Matt. Hope you join in this week. Thoughts for beyond the weekend deal (in a broader sense?) LR has been like a fish floppin around lately. Relax n reload?? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I hope it passes the test.... Nice to see you back Matt. Hope you join in this week. Thoughts for beyond the weekend deal (in a broader sense?) LR has been like a fish floppin around lately. Relax n reload?? Nut Thanks. Good to be back! Been very quiet thus far. It doesn't look super conducive to big snows after this weekend. NAO trending positive (flips to positive by next weekend), AO going from being in the basement to hovering near neutral to close out January, and the PNA appearing to trend negative toward neutral....all those signs point to some milder air. However, some of our biggest winter storms have occurred during a flip or transition period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks. Good to be back! Been very quiet thus far. It doesn't look super conducive to big snows after this weekend. NAO trending positive (flips to positive by next weekend), AO going from being in the basement to hovering near neutral to close out January, and the PNA appearing to trend negative toward neutral....all those signs point to some milder air. However, some of our biggest winter storms have occurred during a flip or transition period. yeah I've been seeing the trends you suggest, but it just seems like we've had so much volatility in the modelling inside 5 days, let alone beyond. After learning the the ENSO recently ticked back up, lets just say I'm more than a little leary as to getting typical Nino climo round here in Feb. This year is not normal by any stretch. Don S suggested that it is once again cooling, but, to me, the values are at levels that will likely keep the Pac flow as a prominent player. Maybe just a really late spring again.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Okay, its a legitimate threat when AllWeather is in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 From the MA forum. Para is a crush job for ALL of us here. L O N G week incoming but looking forward to whatever happens. Nut AnthonyDabbundo, on 17 Jan 2016 - 09:09 AM, said: Ryan Maue just tweeted that the Para Euro snow map is one of the biggest he has ever seen for the MA? Anyone confirm what it shows? talked about it earlier in the thread. 3ft totals for Deep Creek, Altoona, State College. 18 for bwi, 15/16 for DCA. 2 ft+ for winchester, front royal, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Holy @&^! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Okay, its a legitimate threat when AllWeather is in the house. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Holy @&^! Holy @&^! indeed, wow. KAOO for the win with 37" on the || Euro lol. That's gotta be about the biggest slam job i've ever seen for C-PA at any range. (Taken from MA thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Holy @&^! indeed, wow. KAOO for the win with 37" on the || Euro lol. That's gotta be about the biggest slam job i've ever seen for C-PA at any range. (Taken from MA thread) WRNLp5h.png A lot of forums including both of ours would be happy with that solution. Wish it was tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 From the MA forum. Para is a crush job for ALL of us here. L O N G week incoming but looking forward to whatever happens. Nut AnthonyDabbundo, on 17 Jan 2016 - 09:09 AM, said: talked about it earlier in the thread. 3ft totals for Deep Creek, Altoona, State College. 18 for bwi, 15/16 for DCA. 2 ft+ for winchester, front royal, etc. Definitely hones in from I-95 up through Central PA with some intense meso totals near 3 feet in the above mentioned spots. CCB gets cranking on that run. Too bad it's Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 A lot of forums including both of ours would be happy with that solution. Wish it was tomorrow. If this pipedream verifies, it would trigger the quickest reversal of opinion on a season in the history of weather on the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thx Mag. As your staring and glaring at the pic....focus on the grey area and tell me what what the Para is doing to the CPA crew..... Dare I say that pic prob give some of folks "woodies" (sorry....I couldnt resist) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Beautiful stuff. But being jackpotted 5 days out can't be good! Voyager, I didn't mean it - I promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 (Taken from MA thread) WRNLp5h.png Also am I the only one seeing a penis and testiicles here?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Also am I the only one seeing a penis and testiicles here?! I quoted the exact same in the pgh forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 canderson....see post #732 Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Holy @&^! indeed, wow. KAOO for the win with 37" on the || Euro lol. That's gotta be about the biggest slam job i've ever seen for C-PA at any range. (Taken from MA thread) WRNLp5h.png That setup reminds me of the January 1994 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Where were we 5 days prior to Feb 9, 2010? Am i remembering that wrong? Weren't we in a good spot five days out, lost it and got it back inside 48 hrs? Even though... the difference in jackpot and not jackpot in that image is only the difference between meeting seasonal total in one event and being at 75% of average in one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I just love that the new upgraded higher resolution Euro Para model shows All of us in our region getting buried. The best part is that there is room for shifting in all directions that would still leave most of us in a good spot. I think at this point, most of us would be happy with half or a third of the Euro Para map posted above. Heck, last year MDT's highest single storm was just under 6 inches. Anything near double digits would be a huge win, but the quest for the holy grail of a 20+ storm is why most of us are here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 A lot of forums including both of ours would be happy with that solution. Wish it was tomorrow. Definitely hones in from I-95 up through Central PA with some intense meso totals near 3 feet in the above mentioned spots. CCB gets cranking on that run. Too bad it's Day 6. I'd be estatic just with getting half of those amounts the way this winter has been going haha. But definitely gotta keep perspective and a level head as we have a long week of hashing this event out and I'm sure there will be ups and downs as always. I will say the potential for a big one is there IF everything comes together at the right time. This is the kind of opportunity I've been waiting to see this winter if it comes to fruition, a major coastal on a charged southern jet with available cold air and the warm SST's off the Eastern Seaboard especially near the Gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Beautiful stuff. But being jackpotted 5 days out can't be good! Voyager, I didn't mean it - I promise! I just couldn't resist some good natured ribbing!!! It's going to be fun tracking this one all week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Where were we 5 days prior to Feb 9, 2010? Am i remembering that wrong? Weren't we in a good spot five days out, lost it and got it back inside 48 hrs? Even though... the difference in jackpot and not jackpot in that image is only the difference between meeting seasonal total in one event and being at 75% of average in one event. IIRC the first storm was lost at 72 but came back at 48. The one four days later never wavered I don't believe. Those five days were beyond words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 22", that's something I'd be fine sitting home for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Also am I the only one seeing a penis and testiicles here?! being told its part of a new algorythm that covers when we get "the shaft" in any storms..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Where were we 5 days prior to Feb 9, 2010? Am i remembering that wrong? Weren't we in a good spot five days out, lost it and got it back inside 48 hrs? Even though... the difference in jackpot and not jackpot in that image is only the difference between meeting seasonal total in one event and being at 75% of average in one event. I remember laughing at the clown maps about 5 days out for that event only for it to almost verify. Fwiw euro parallel has been scoring quite well recently but has yet to be tested with a big east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 IIRC the first storm was lost at 72 but came back at 48. The one four days later never wavered I don't believe. Those five days were beyond words. Yes they were from a meteorological perspective, but for me and my son notsomuch. We had a very bad snowmobile crash in storm #1. He broke his femur due to my pushing him into the handlebars on my way to flipping over sled (hit large cement culvert in snowdrift....(lets just say it was a really tough year for us). Emergency surgery, some hardware in his leg and we watched storm #2 from our big window....and I/we never got to enjoy it. He's all better now, (and rides very well....made him get on a sled while on his walker to "bite the dog".) I hope this one verifies and we get to enjoy a big one...may not even touch the sleds...just enjoy the storm... Lets do this.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 IIRC the first storm was lost at 72 but came back at 48. The one four days later never wavered I don't believe. Those five days were beyond words. Yeah, my memory of the 2010 events are half-and-half because I spent the Wednesday and Thursday before the February 4 storm stocking up on vodka and jagermeister and ended up, I believe doing a drunken play-by-play on Blizzard92's Wunderground Blog so much that I was hungover the next day shoveling my Chevy Blazer out of thigh-deep snow in pajamas. I'm not the smartest person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd be estatic just with getting half of those amounts the way this winter has been going haha. But definitely gotta keep perspective and a level head as we have a long week of hashing this event out and I'm sure there will be ups and downs as always. I will say the potential for a big one is there IF everything comes together at the right time. This is the kind of opportunity I've been waiting to see this winter if it comes to fruition, a major coastal on a charged southern jet with available cold air and the warm SST's off the Eastern Seaboard especially near the Gulf stream. sst.daily.anom.gif I'm with you. I just want to see what those highly anomalous warm Pac waters can do around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anyways, back to the weather. We probably shouldn't forget about the cold air coming tonight and highs in the twenties early this week. Definitely going to feel like January before any potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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