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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Check out the 18z GFS output for KMDT:

 

160123/0000Z 150 07015KT 28.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

160123/0300Z 153 07015KT 30.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0

160123/0600Z 156 05023KT 32.4F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.163 5:1| 1.6|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.35 11| 86| 3

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160123/0900Z 159 03024KT 31.0F SNOW 16:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.531 11:1| 10.1|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.88 100| 0| 0160123/1200Z 162 01025KT 30.6F SNOW 18:1|16.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.896 15:1| 26.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.77 100| 0| 0

160123/1500Z 165 01021KT 31.0F SNOW 8:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.396 14:1| 29.7|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 2.17 100| 0| 0

160123/1800Z 168 35023KT 31.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 30.1|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 2.22 100| 0| 0

 

Yes, that's 16.3 inches of snow in a 3 hour period.  :lol:

L

O

L

I'll buy everyone in this thread all the alcohol they can drink one night if that comes even close to verifying.

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But lying will send somebody else to hell. Can you live with being an accessory to somebody else endinh up in Hell?

The land needs to settle for the upcoming growing season. Snow makes the ground cold, adds to the moisture, the crops grow bigger. Happy prayers!

I may quote you at bedtime....:)

 

Nut

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Glad to see were all up waiting for the 2am run of the Euro. Are MAG and MillVille awake yet?

 

I'm here and watching. I'll try to give a Euro play by play here shortly. GFS definitely came to play tonight, GGEM is a bit warm but looked like at least a front end snowfall ordeal and Miller B evolution. The GFS had this all out snowstorm a few days ago when it was in the 222-240ish range before kinda losing it and occasionally looking like the Euro with cutting the southern wave off and thus cutting off the cold air... although the Euro has been all over the place. 

 

Cautiously optimistic on it.. def a legit storm threat for that time frame. Just worried about enough cold air. It seems so far this year when we involve the southern stream we end up too warm. We should have an antecedent cold air mass in place this time so central PA should definitely be in the game. Hopefully we get it, cuz it's getting to that point of the winter that unless we have a good March like we did in 07.. it's going to be tough to even get to our average winter snowfall totals (esp interior stations like IPT/UNV/JST, etc) without a big hitter or two. But we're still in mid-January, so plenty of time yet. 

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Euro at 126hr so far is further south and weaker than the GFS is... but the system is def there. GFS has 1004mb centered on about Nashville and Euro has a broader 1010ish low centered on roughly central Alabama. 

 

138 hr - 1008 on the central GA/SC border with precip to the mason dixon line. Snowing in most of western/central VA and arriving into DC

 

144 hr - Broad 1008mb centered on the Carolina coastline, precip (snow) into PA up through JST/AOO/MDT

 

150hr - Light to moderate snow south of I-80... heavier precip near the mason-dixon

 

156hr - Light to moderate snow hanging in the LSV below I-80

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Still precip lingering in the LSV through 168.. Euro bombs the system out (984 mb offshore of Ocean City, MD) and ends up slower than the GFS. Looks like a good Sus Valley hit, but really a good I-95 hit from NYC south. 

 

All of the 95 corridor from DC-Boston still getting hammered at 174 and Philly-Boston at 180.

 

In short, I think the Euro just gave the Mid-Atlantic and I-95 weenies an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary. 

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The Euro is a beautiful run for the southern portion of the forum with a gorgeous H5 ULL pass. The Euro really bombs out the system and the captured 500 basically slows the storm down once it gets to latitude of OCMD. Likely a further expanded QPF shield to the NW as is classic of a storm of this magnitude. Low and mid level layers look great and would likely lead to pretty good snow growth near the height due to the lift associated with the ULL passage. Best Euro run of winter for a storm.

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Still precip lingering in the LSV through 168.. Euro bombs the system out (984 mb offshore of Ocean City, MD) and ends up slower than the GFS. Looks like a good Sus Valley hit, but really a good I-95 hit from NYC south.

All of the 95 corridor from DC-Boston still getting hammered at 174 and Philly-Boston at 180.

In short, I think the Euro just gave the Mid-Atlantic and I-95 weenies an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary.

Was a nice run Mag. Now take it home. I'm heading to bed lol

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Was a nice run Mag. Now take it home. I'm heading to bed lol

 

Lol definitely nice to see something interesting even if it is still out there range wise, I was going to post a snow map grab from the Mid-Atlantic thread but I don't want our northerners (Hazelton, wmsptwx, etc) all riled up yet considering this is still a day 6-8 thing haha. 

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All models now on board for a major snowstorm that begins in only

5 days . Of course the jackpot & rip off zones will jump around over the next few days. I hope this week is all about " how much?"

I was happy with just the thought of a 2-4 or 3-6 inch storm to just get our first real event on the books. But now, a major storm is a very real potential .

I'm all in !!!

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Lol definitely nice to see something interesting even if it is still out there range wise, I was going to post a snow map grab from the Mid-Atlantic thread but I don't want our northerners (Hazelton, wmsptwx, etc) all riled up yet considering this is still a day 6-8 thing haha.

Lol, I'm not much of a snow guy anymore. Post away.
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Was a nice run Mag. Now take it home. I'm heading to bed lol

seein a PBP in our forum all but brought tears to my eyes....

 

Thanks for the analysis guys.  Sweet capture and slow moving....

 

Such a tease....

 

Sounds like a fun week on the board, despite the outcome (can you see me holding the reigns on my emotions.... :ee:

 

Great stuff guys.

 

Nut

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0z GFS gives the entire region 12"+ and the 81/78 corridor are talkng two feet, bonus it screws the 95 cities. This a weenie wet dream - too bad it's 138 hours out.

 

 

Careful now...karma can be a biotch...

 

 

Lol definitely nice to see something interesting even if it is still out there range wise, I was going to post a snow map grab from the Mid-Atlantic thread but I don't want our northerners (Hazelton, wmsptwx, etc) all riled up yet considering this is still a day 6-8 thing haha. 

 

If this thing ends up hammering I-95 and fringes north/west of I-81, I'm coming after you Canderson... :P:gun_bandana:

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So the EURO delivers a nice double gut-punch by wrecking my day with my best friend AND screwing this area. :axe:

 

I wouldn't be too sure about screwing your area. In fact, looking at the individual ensemble Euro members on WxBell, there seems to be a decent amount of members(about 40% of them) that hammer all/most of PA and give the Mid-Atl lower amounts...About 30% of the members show a I-95 storm....and the other 20% ranges from a big lower SQV/Western VA hit to southern suppressed systems. 

 

The mean is spread pretty far because there's still some disagreement, as you would expect for being 6 days out, but definitely some big time hits coming from the Euro on that run. We're relying on perfect timing of trough tilt and enhancement for these hits, and considering the energy is still offshore, there will be some changes. 

 

 

PS - hey everyone! Hope you all had great spring/summer/fall/holidays  :drunk:

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If this thing ends up hammering I-95 and fringes north/west of I-81, I'm coming after you Canderson... :P:gun_bandana:

You were one of the first people I thought of on that Euro run. It was bittersweet since it came at end of week with entire weekend to recoup, but the NW extension in PA got kind of shafted that run. Experience on these types of systems leads me to believe the NW side will be more expanded. And all of 81 didn't get the shaft :P

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You were one of the first people I thought of on that Euro run. It was bittersweet since it came at end of week with entire weekend to recoup, but the NW extension in PA got kind of shafted that run. Experience on these types of systems leads me to believe the NW side will be more expanded. And all of 81 didn't get the shaft :P

 

It's the perfect snowstorm for a truck driver who runs Monday-Friday and off on weekends. I know there'll be 20 different scenarios and tracks over the next week, but I still had to poke a little fun at Canderson for his I-95 statement...lol

 

I do hope you're right though as over the past few years there's been some horrible northwest gradients with the big storms.

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If this thing ends up hammering I-95 and fringes north/west of I-81, I'm coming after you Canderson... :P:gun_bandana:

atta boy....now your talkin... :snowing:

 

Nut

 

In fairness....I think we've all been screwed plenty this year.  Just to see someone w/in 100 put some snow on the stick is gonna make me happy.

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