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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Has anyone looked at last night's 0Z GFS run?  I'm pretty sure it's showing a decent Greenland block that develops mid-way through the run and intensifies through the end.  Strong high pressure approaching 1050mb with 850's in the minus 30's over Greenland while it keeps us below -10 at 850 (probably not during the 18Z timeframes) for almost 5 days straight.  That seems pretty darn impressive for late November to me.

 

Eric H's first blast might be arriving ahead of schedule if this run turns out to be accurate.  At the very least it looks like Thanksgiving Day is going to be feeling more like winter.

Don't buy into the hype for the blocking.  It's still out in la la land and is probably a transient event.

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We have about 1 more week to wait until we get the long awaited pattern change. The Euro & GFS both show temps trending colder as we get to early next week. For the first time this season, I just glanced at the Weatherbell weather models page to look at the Euro ensemble 0z run. The 15 day forecast which takes us to the end of the month, shows many of the 51 ensemble members putting snow down in central PA. A quick count showed a little over 20 members putting down at least 1 inch of snow. A few of these showed a couple inches, and a couple members put actually had impressive looking totals for the heart of winter. The main message is that we are heading toward the time of year when our snow potential window finally opens, and the players are starting to take the field next week!

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The anniversary of one of Buffalos top lake effect storms is coming up on Tuesday. I put together a quick video of the best pictures and some video that I was able to find. I apologize for a few of the repeats! I hope you guys like it!

 

 

As a huge lake effect enthusiast I also did some research about the top events to last years storm to see if anything in the history of the area was ever even close to the severity that this event had. Many were close and I still think 1977 beats it quite handily, but it would be # 2 in my book. Here are some of the top events that I was able to research.

 

I gathered some of the data pre 85 on this research paper about the Blizzard of 1977.

 

 

http://www.nwas.org/...2no03-Dewey.pdf

 

Here are just a few of the note-worthy events.

 

October 18-19 1930

 

The first lake-effect snowfall of the season in the vicinity of Buffalo, New York usually occurs mid-November. However, in 1930, a lake-effect snowstorm struck the region as early as October 18-19. Over four feet of snow occurred in the southern and western suburbs of Buffalo during this weekend storm stranding many tourists who had been out enjoying the colorful autumn foliage.

 

December 8-10 1937

 

Wiggin described two examples of a severe lake-effect storm occurrence in Buffalo. The first memorable storm noted by Wiggin occurred during December 8-10 1937. A fall of three feet of snow was observed in North Buffalo and over four feet of snow in the northern suburbs.

 

December 14-18, 1945

 

The second Lake-effect storm described by Wiggins occurred on December 14-18, 1945. The airport measured 36.6 inches in this particular storm and falls in excess of 70 inches were reported just four to six miles to the south. The governor of New York declared a state of emergency for the western portion of New York.

 

November 22-23, 1956

 

A Lake Erie induced lake-effect snowstorm on November 22-23, 1956, which produced up to 48 inches of snow just to the south and west of Buffalo.

 

November 22-23 1957

 

This event repeated itself exactly one year later on November 22-23 1957 in the same area and with similar magnitudes of snowfall of up to 48 inches.

 

December 5-11, 1958

 

Perhaps the most intense lake-effect storm ever to hit the Buffalo, New York area lasted from December 5-11, 1958. A storm total of six feet (with some unofficial measurements of over eight feet) of snowfall was observed in the snow-belt just south of Buffalo.

 

November 23-24, 1970

 

A lake-effect snowstorm on November 23-24, 1970 produced only 24 inches of snow, however, the most memorable aspect of this storm was the extensive 12 foot drifts throughout the southern suburbs of Buffalo.

 

November 29-Dec 2, 1976

 

The lake effect snowstorm originating over Lake Erie during November 29-December 2nd paralyzed activities in portions of the seven western counties of the State. Snowfall amounts exceeded 48 inches in Hamburg and at the Buffalo Airport.

 

December 16-19 1983

 

Had storm totals of 40" and higher in the city of Buffalo and its surrounding suburbs.

 

Blizzard of 1985

On January 18, 1985, Buffalo was hit by the “Six Pack Blizzard.” The storm dropped 33.2 inches of snow with winds gusting to 53 mph. It was during this storm that Mayor Jimmy Griffin told Buffalonians to “Stay inside, grab a six-pack and watch a good football game.” This by far is one of the best lines EVER voiced by a political leader. The storm dropped 33.2 inches with winds gusting to 53 mph.

 

 

post-16475-1264297607.png

 

9-10 December 1995

 

38 inches of snow in 24 hours. Heart of the metro area hit the hardest. Highest snowfall in 24 hours at KBUF airport.

 

November 20th 2000

 

25 inches of snow in 24 hours most of which fell from 2-10 pm.

 

December Christmas week 2001

 

82.6" of snow at KBUF.. Largest lake snow event at KBUF

 

strmtotl.gif

 

October 12-13 2006

 

Buffalos earliest season snowfall. 2 feet of snow storm totals.

 

EventSnowfall_2006_10_02.gif

 

2007

 

40+ inches in the Buffalo southtowns. 42" at East Aurora

 

2010

 

40+ inches just south of Buffalo and eastern suburbs. Max of 42" at Depew

 

If I had to do a top 10 ranking it would be the following

 

1.) 1977

2.) 2014

3.) 2001

4.) 1958

5.) 1945

6.) 1930

7.) 1985

8.) 1937

9.) 1956 & 57 Nearly identical events

10.) 2006

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I would say the end of this week is shaping up to be the rude wake up call that has been due to show up given the summery conditions that have generally prevailed so far this month. Pretty significant system progged to develop in the north central states (lifting into southern Canada) and eventually drag a strong frontal passage across PA late Thurs into Friday this week..allowing seasonal late November weather to settle in for the weekend.

 

More intriguing is a wave that is currently progged to develop following the late week frontal passage that would figure to at least reinforce/strengthen the cold in the area. Pretty reasonable similarites between the 12z GFS/Euro given the range and both develop at least a 3-6" swath of snow across the lower lakes (northern IL,IN,OH) before tracking the weak low through PA thus keeping best precip northwest. Something to watch as it could easily deliver the first snowfall of the season for at least the NW half of PA if it were something that would eventually end up further south than progged. Either way, could be the first notable LES outbreak of the season behind this progged wave as it drags -8 to -10C 850 air over the commonwealth for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. 

 

I don't think it sticks around, yet...as Thanksgiving week looks to be changeable at first glance and teleconnections seem to support more progression (no major blocking) and probably a bit of a continuation of the overall troughiness/unsettled weather being biased more to the western half of the US (-PNA). There's really no one teleconnection that's forecast to be overly dominating + or -.. although the AO is forecast to make another brief swing deep into + territory. At any rate, It seems like a reasonable possibility that we'll have another warm up to some degree and probably another cutting system during Thanksgiving week. Overall nothing that's all that out of the ordinary for late November as it is usually about the time of the year we start seeing the actual winter weather try to fight it's way south of Canada. 

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I would say the end of this week is shaping up to be the rude wake up call that has been due to show up given the summery conditions that have generally prevailed so far this month. Pretty significant system progged to develop in the north central states (lifting into southern Canada) and eventually drag a strong frontal passage across PA late Thurs into Friday this week..allowing seasonal late November weather to settle in for the weekend.

 

More intriguing is a wave that is currently progged to develop following the late week frontal passage that would figure to at least reinforce/strengthen the cold in the area. Pretty reasonable similarites between the 12z GFS/Euro given the range and both develop at least a 3-6" swath of snow across the lower lakes (northern IL,IN,OH) before tracking the weak low through PA thus keeping best precip northwest. Something to watch as it could easily deliver the first snowfall of the season for at least the NW half of PA if it were something that would eventually end up further south than progged. Either way, could be the first notable LES outbreak of the season behind this progged wave as it drags -8 to -10C 850 air over the commonwealth for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. 

 

I don't think it sticks around, yet...as Thanksgiving week looks to be changeable at first glance and teleconnections seem to support more progression (no major blocking) and probably a bit of a continuation of the overall troughiness/unsettled weather being biased more to the western half of the US (-PNA). There's really no one teleconnection that's forecast to be overly dominating + or -.. although the AO is forecast to make another brief swing deep into + territory. At any rate, It seems like a reasonable possibility that we'll have another warm up to some degree and probably another cutting system during Thanksgiving week. Overall nothing that's all that out of the ordinary for late November as it is usually about the time of the year we start seeing the actual winter weather try to fight it's way south of Canada. 

Thanks for update Mag.  Always enjoy your reads.  Informative and spells out the good...the bad...the unknown.  Nice to at least see some talk of more seasonal (albeit transient...for now) weather.  

 

Nut 

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This winter will be interesting as...

 

Enso is off the hook

 

NAO still says...not so fast...were goin down.  

 

Add in a +PNA and we may be able to play once in a while...

 

Read the other day where the SE ridge should'nt be a big problem...but it still scares the dickens outta me.  

 

Regardless the outcome, still fun times ahead as the southern stream should keep the pipeline full of opportunities.

 

Nut

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A bit outside our range but Steven DiMartino from NYNJPAWeather.com was on his local FOX Affiliate last night talking about the upcoming winter (for NYC) and suggested that once you get past November and December, January thru March should be cold and snowy.

 

So there's hope.

LOTS of mets/climatologist are pointing at Feb-March in this general region to produce a big storm or two. 

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Every day I wake up, hoping to see my fears about the upcoming winter are false...that we'll see a consensus on  the long range will bode well for us snow lovers.  Well, just the opposite kind of consensus from the Euro, GFS, CMC.   :axe:   

 

attachicon.gifpost-4215-0-96224600-1448043972.gif

 

Well, on the other hand, it the trough axis would've been set up a little bit further east and perhaps dug a bit more we would be talking the first winter storm of the season for some or all of C-PA this weekend before whatever happens later this coming week. That looks to be quite a snowmaker for Iowa into the Chicago area and on through Michigan. 

 

At any rate, those anomalously low heights over Greenland during that timeframe of those 7-10 day maps are especially ugly and def reflect on my post from a few weeks ago saying that things could really heat up in a hurry this winter if we didn't have some semblance of the Pac ridging pattern from last year, as I personally don't think the NAO is gonna be much help again this winter.. at least early. That setup as it is shown is just not right for us in it's alignment, with the undercutting western US trough and the high latitude + heights cutting into western Canada (no source region for any strong/sustained cold).

 

So yea that looks like a pretty crappy period from a winter standpoint, but I'm nowhere close to worried about the winter as a whole. We just went through this last year and the Mid Atl/NE had a pretty lousy go of it all the way into January last year. 

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This week, Joe Bastardi in his Weatherbell Premium blog said he sees the pattern setting up for the first week of December for a possible winter storm in the East. The ridge will be moving into western Canada, with the trough emerging in the southern plains heading east he said. Overall for December, Weatherbell had most of PA with temps averaging near normal for the month.

The West has had a lot of snow this month, the Midwest is getting it now, and hopefully we will get on the board in PA in early December!

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This week, Joe Bastardi in his Weatherbell Premium blog said he sees the pattern setting up for the first week of December for a possible winter storm in the East. The ridge will be moving into western Canada, with the trough emerging in the southern plains heading east he said. Overall for December, Weatherbell had most of PA with temps averaging near normal for the month.

The West has had a lot of snow this month, the Midwest is getting it now, and hopefully we will get on the board in PA in early December!

Bastardi is just a snow weenie.

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This week, Joe Bastardi in his Weatherbell Premium blog said he sees the pattern setting up for the first week of December for a possible winter storm in the East. The ridge will be moving into western Canada, with the trough emerging in the southern plains heading east he said. Overall for December, Weatherbell had most of PA with temps averaging near normal for the month.

The West has had a lot of snow this month, the Midwest is getting it now, and hopefully we will get on the board in PA in early December!

 

Models have looked a little bit better the last day or so with that Thanksgiving weekend and after timeframe. The Euro especially and the GFS to a degree had been hung up with dumping a trough into the west and pumping and holding a ridge in the east. But as we get closer and into better range this appears to be turning into a late week system pushing a front across relatively quickly over next weekend returning seasonably cold weather back to our region. And as I posted a few days ago, the pattern this coming week isn't much of a revelation to me as I expected a changeable week with the cold retreating with nothing to hold it and another cutting system later in the week. 

 

Teleconnections are forecast to become a bit better later in the week with the PNA swinging to positive, although the NAO looks quite positive and the EPO swings from negative to positive (but < 1 st dev on either side so quite weak). Might as well throw in the rest of the alphabet soup as well with the MJO forecast to skirt phases 2&3 or move into phase 3 (3 can be a somewhat mild phase this time of the winter) but lose magnitude heading towards/into the circle. The AO is forecast to remain solidly positive.

 

So basically, I think the development of a positive PNA will help align the pattern to keep us colder, but the +AO is likely to keep really cold stuff bottled up north...and the +NAO isn't doing any favors. So if we end up with a colder pattern it probably won't be anything crazy. But we don't need crazy to score a snow event in our region.

 

post-1507-0-58904700-1448143645_thumb.pn

 

 

 

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Bastardi is just a snow weenie.

y

The last time I checked, Joe is a well respected meteorologist that has clients all over the world that pay for his expertise. He also does national TV & radio occasionally. He does love snow & exciting weather, but his main goal is to be accurate, because his business depends on it.

He is fantastic at the long range pattern development and has nailed the last 2 winter seasonal forecasts.

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y

The last time I checked, Joe is a well respected meteorologist that has clients all over the world that pay for his expertise. He also does national TV & radio occasionally. He does love snow & exciting weather, but his main goal is to be accurate, because his business depends on it.

He is fantastic at the long range pattern development and has nailed the last 2 winter seasonal forecasts.

I followed him on Twitter for about 6 months, before removing him.  He incessantly posts every minute about any model that gives a swath of 6-12" of snow for the NE or how "this is the big daddy" event.  If you're into that, okay, but I've gone tone deaf with him.

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I followed him on Twitter for about 6 months, before removing him.  He incessantly posts every minute about any model that gives a swath of 6-12" of snow for the NE or how "this is the big daddy" event.  If you're into that, okay, but I've gone tone deaf with him.

hahaha, you lasted longer than I did (~month).

 

There is no sense in sugar coating the upcoming weather pattern; it just isn't that great for widespread snows in the Midatlantic. Could it happen still? Of course.

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Regardless of the patterns, there will be snow. Unless the patterns are wrong.

 

Think about this, we could get one or two good snows (8in +) and a bunch of light snows (4" or less) and still have a good winter.

 

I cannot remember the last time we had a 12in + storm here.  but it iwll happen sooner or later.

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Regardless of the patterns, there will be snow. Unless the patterns are wrong.

 

Think about this, we could get one or two good snows (8in +) and a bunch of light snows (4" or less) and still have a good winter.

 

I cannot remember the last time we had a 12in + storm here.  but it will happen sooner or later.

Feb 12-14, 2014

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* Warmer for Thanksgiving - Early December Snow Possible (but far from a lock) *

 

Monday, November 23, 2015:

Temperatures today struggled to approach 40 degrees as the coldest air of the season is now moving through. While chilly air will linger a couple more days, a strong warming trend will take hold for the second half of the week. Thanksgiving day should be partly sunny with highs in the low to mid 50s, and we have a good chance of warming to near 60 on Friday, if sun dominates rather than clouds. A cold front will bring a chance of showers sometime late Friday into midday Saturday, but at this point it does not look like a soaking rain. Seasonably cool conditions will follow for Sunday.

More interesting are signs of developing split flow jet stream during the first week of December. Such a set up provides an opportunity for some snow in the Northeast as cool air presses in from the north and a couple of Pacific disturbances track across the country. In split flow regimens, however, timing is EVERYTHING! If one of these disturbances synchs perfectly with the northern branch, then our first measurable snow could fall sometime between December 1 - 10th. But there's a better chance than not that synchronicity will fail us...and so odds are better for a snow across northern PA, NY and interior New England. The bottom line: the split flow is an intriguing development, but it's not something snow lovers should get too excited about yet. But for the first time this season, I'm saying there's a chance.... --Hörst

 

 

Just a little nugget from Eric today...

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