Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

[AlaskaETC]

i guess a lot of the posters were disappointed that the storm did not hit land at 200 mph.. so they look to downplay it's strength cause it weakened before landfall...

 

Exactly, definition of bitter casting. Some people were actually upset that the vast majority of catastrophic conditions did not make landfall.

[ncforecaster89]

I would respectfully suggest that one has to be careful not to minimize the extraordinary danger and extreme damage that a category-four hurricane can produce. Actually, the same is true for any "major" hurricane based upon wind speed alone. This doesn't take into consideration all the other dangerous elements of a TC, whereby it doesn't need to be a "major" hurricane to produce major destruction (e.g. Ike, Sandy, etc.).

[H2O]

If the numbers say it was a Cat 5 then it was a Cat 5. Storms don't get recorded as weakening Cat 5 or zomg Cat 5.

[ncforecaster89]

Exactly, definition of bitter casting. Some people were actually upset that the vast majority of catastrophic conditions did not make landfall.

I for one am hopeful, and thank God it didn't. I'm sure you will hear of incredible devastation in the very small area where the inner-eyewall came ashore, nonetheless.

[user13]

Reports are positive, little damage and no loss of life.

[jbcmh81]

Maybe everyone should wait to see the full damage/observations made before making any claims that it was underwhelming at landfall.  Pretty much every landfall is initially downplayed because it takes time to get to the damaged areas and fully access what happened.

[user13]

Maybe everyone should wait to see the full damage/observations made before making any claims that it was underwhelming at landfall. Pretty much every landfall is initially downplayed because it takes time to get to the damaged areas and fully access what happened.

The reports are from those towns. The rain will be the biggest issue with this storm.

[ncforecaster89]

If the numbers say it was a Cat 5 then it was a Cat 5. Storms don't get recorded as weakening Cat 5 or zomg Cat 5.

To avoid any misunderstanding, for I can only speak for myself, I'm saying that it's a legitimate argument as to whether or not it actually made landfall at category-five intensity. It may not have. Since RECON wasn't taking observations within the last hour preceding landfall, we will likely never know the definitive answer. The NHC official landfall intensity is an estimate based partly on subjectivity (such as the presumed rate of weakening) in the absence of the "numbers" RECON wasn't there to provide.

From the forecasters perspective, and considering the impacts to those in harms way, it was far more prudent to operationally error on the side of retaining category-five intensity. They have plenty of time to do post-storm analysis, after the fact. Even then, there will be some subjectivity involved for the aforementioned reasons.

I'm definitely not saying it wasn't a category-five at landfall...but it's most certainly reasonable for one to question whether it was.

[ncforecaster89]

The reports are from those towns. The rain will be the biggest issue with this storm.

If those reports are accurate, I'm surprised that there was very little damage despite the rapid weakening. But, am hopeful the reports are accurate!

[Ginx snewx]

As exciting as it is to see a cat 5 at sea the only true metric of judging storms is at LF. Obviously weakened and infiltrated by dry air it will be interesting to see based on visual damage assessment what the LF impact wind speeds were. I suspect as has happened countless times aircraft  measurements at sea don't necessarily transmit into landfall wind speeds

[user13]

As exciting as it is to see a cat 5 at sea the only true metric of judging storms is at LF. Obviously weakened and infiltrated by dry air it will be interesting to see based on visual damage assessment what the LF impact wind speeds were. I suspect as has happened countless times aircraft measurements at sea don't necessarily transmit into landfall wind speeds

The surge is normally the main issue but the way the land shelf is, it lessened the impact for that area. So the wind was the main threat in this case. However, winds may have diminished rapidly as it approached land.

[ncforecaster89]

there should be a higher number for hurricanes than a cat 5.. if there was this storm be a cat 6 or even a cat 7....

I completely understand your reasoning and it is valid one. That said, the SSHS was initially created to assign a generalized interpretation of the damage one could expect based on the various wind speeds in each category. At the time, there was no need for an additional category since most structures weren't built to withstand sustained category-five wind speeds. Most still aren't today, despite the improved building standards...which is why it's unlikely there will be an additional category added to the SSHWS any time soon.

[Ginx snewx]

The surge is normally the main issue but the way the land shelf is, it lessened the impact for that area. So the wind was the main threat in this case. However, winds may have diminished rapidly as it approached land.

surge is a function of time too, the rapid buildup and limited fetch  were limiting factors. The IKE was unimpressive due to Patricia's size although certainly that 15 mile tornado zone at sea must have been insane.

[eyewall]

So far the only footage I have seen claims this is in Guadalajara:

[hawkeye_wx]

Does anyone know at what elevation weather measurements are no longer valid for supporting a storm's intensity?  Obviously, a wind measurement on the beach is legit.  What about a higher wind measurement up on a hill, or an even higher measurement from an elevated station 300 ft up?

[DTWXRISK]

 SEE   KATRINA 


user13, on 24 Oct 2015 - 08:57 AM, said:

 

Reports are positive, little damage and no loss of life.

[DTWXRISK]

 YA think?    I mean folks we go through  with every BIG hurricane 

 

 I can  post video from  south FL  mostly based out of  Miami   saying  the next days otr two  "  well damage is much less  than expected with  Andrew "

   some  folks never  ever learn

the very nature of  , mass communications in the 21st century   means that   the areas that  are reporting in and saying  " not too bad here "   are the  areas  NOT hit hard 

 

 Conversely the  opposite is also true --areas badly hit  NEVER   report in early  or  on time 

 

Maybe everyone should wait to see the full damage/observations made before making any claims that it was underwhelming at landfall.  Pretty much every landfall is initially downplayed because it takes time to get to the damaged areas and fully access what happened.

[DTWXRISK]

    CORRECT ... which is why I have been on kind  of  a tear  in this  thread 

 

 to suggest   that a  rise  from 879  to  910 mb means its  was not a cat 5 ...

 

Reading these posts,... smh.... this storm was far from ordinary, and all signs point to the fact this was still a Cat 5 at landfall but we'll see what Josh comes up with.

[dan11295]

Would like to see verified reports from areas around landfall location before making anything close to a final judgement. That fact it was weakening , small storm(although still a very strong storm certainly at landfall) and hit a relatively unpopulated area with fast movement (to limit flooding a major source of fatalities in TC's) should limit the damage.

 

Remember Hurricane Bret? It hit the US as a major in 1999 but the general public doesn't remember it at all because it hit Kennedy County, Texas and only caused $15 million dollars in damage. Location is often a big factor to overall damage with smaller tropical cyclones.

 

Cyclone Tracy in Australia is another example. Very small cyclone, just happened to hit Darwin directly.

[Ginx snewx]

 YA think?    I mean folks we go through  with every BIG hurricane 

 

 I can  post video from  south FL  mostly based out of  Miami   saying  the next days otr two  "  well damage is much less  than expected with  Andrew "

   some  folks never  ever learn

the very nature of  , mass communications in the 21st century   means that   the areas that  are reporting in and saying  " not too bad here "   are the  areas  NOT hit hard 

 

 Conversely the  opposite is also true --areas badly hit  NEVER   report in early  or  on time 

Thankfully the authorities in Jolisa are reporting no deaths

[DTWXRISK]

 You said   this in post  656   "  Yea, it's gone from an unprecedented, unimaginable strike, to an extreme, yet ordinary one.

 

 now  you say its  was a weak cat 5

 
Please Explain to us  how a  weak cat 5  -- you are right about that -- is  ORDINARY

 

910>879

A weakened cat 5.

[clskinsfan]

   but  it did  not weaken  ---  sorry

 yes the  MSLP  went  up  from 885 to 910  but  it was  STILL a cat 5  and the data proves it

 

 

   

[eyewall]

This thread has derailed.

[wxeyeNH]

From what I can see on the maps there is only one coastal road (Rt 200)along the Pacific. Josh is there and will have to travel it to get home. I would guess he would fly out of PV so he would have to go north along 200 where it comes out to the coast at Costa Careyes. That should have been near the center of the eye.  He saw what Haiyan did so should be able to give us a good comparison of wind damages. Also because the core was small once helicopters get a quick view flying down the coast and we should know more how the fishing villages did.  We should know quickly as weather is rapidly clearing.

 

Of course inland flooding, mudslides and inland loss of life is another aspect of the storm that will take longer to report. It is more spread out.  One mudslide covering a village and taking a large loss of life could end up being the biggest part of the story.  I don't know if the eventual record rainfall that Texas will get and possible loss of life is considered part of Patricia's legacy. 

[user13]

SEE KATRINA

user13, on 24 Oct 2015 - 08:57 AM, said:

Reports are positive, little damage and no loss of life.

I Knew someone would say that. NO is a bathtub that took a while to fill up, causing the delay.

[Rick G]

That is why I said a Cat 5 is a cat 5. I don't care if it is a "weak" cat 5 it is still a dangerous storm.

 

Also the question about wind speeds. yes 200 is faster than 160 but once you get to cat 5 strength it is going to be bad.

[Rjay]

Would like to see verified reports from areas around landfall location before making anything close to a final judgement. That fact it was weakening , small storm(although still a very strong storm certainly at landfall) and hit a relatively unpopulated area with fast movement (to limit flooding a major source of fatalities in TC's) should limit the damage.

Remember Hurricane Bret? It hit the US as a major in 1999 but the general public doesn't remember it at all because it hit Kennedy County, Texas and only caused $15 million dollars in damage. Location is often a big factor to overall damage with smaller tropical cyclones.

Cyclone Tracy in Australia is another example. Very small cyclone, just happened to hit Darwin directly.

Yup. If Patricia had hit a highly populated area this would have been a huge ongoing story.

[Quincy]

That is why I said a Cat 5 is a cat 5. I don't care if it is a "weak" cat 5 it is still a dangerous storm.

 

Also the question about wind speeds. yes 200 is faster than 160 but once you get to cat 5 strength it is going to be bad.

"Weak" Cat 5 is really misleading. Low-end vs. high-end seems better when further explaining hurricanes of different categories (although, I'm not sure there is a such thing as a high-end Cat 5, since there is no Cat 6).

 

Saying that would be like saying a tornado was a "weak EF-5."

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yup. If Patricia had hit anywhere in the US, this would have been a huge ongoing story.

Fixed.

I mean no disrespect to the people that live there, but quite frankly, not too many people in the USA care about a Mexico hit aside from weather fanatics and people with property, friends, or family there. Aside from us weather freaks there aren't many of the latter.

The Texas/LA flooding will get headlines in the USA and rightfully so.

[Ground Scouring]

The reports are from those towns. The rain will be the biggest issue with this storm.

I still don't see any reports from areas that experienced the inner core. And iCyclone still hasn't reported in.