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Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia


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I would imagine this might be similar to Charley on crack. Approaching the coast at a similar angle that Charley approached Florida, and a small, but very intense inner core. I remember them issuing tornado warnings where Charley made landfall, because it was literally like a massive tornado buzz sawing the entire area.

I was actually making my first visit to Florida the week Hurricane Charley came ashore, my grandparents have a house on "Pine Island" right around punta gorda port Charlotte area, Which took a direct hit I remember the mandatory evacuations they had in place, and we drove 6 hours north in traffic jammed interstates to escape.

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000

URPN12 KWBC 231839

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015

A. 23/17:33:00Z

B. 18 deg 10 min N

105 deg 16 min W

C. 700 mb 1924 m

D. 169 kt

E. 305 deg / 5 nm

F. 118 deg 204 kt

G. 133 deg 5 nm

H. 883 mb

I. 12 C / 3063 m

J. 28 C / 2901 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C7

N. 12345 / 7

O. 1 / 1 nm

P. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04

MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS

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Yep. He is on his way to EZ. Told him he may have to head further N to Careyes or Chamela. Can't lie. Not fully comfortable but trust his judgement. Running out of time and has to find somewhere to hunker down.

 

For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall.

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000URPN12 KWBC 231839VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  EP202015A. 23/17:33:00ZB. 18 deg 10 min N  105 deg 16 min WC. 700 mb 1924 mD. 169 ktE. 305 deg / 5 nmF. 118 deg 204 ktG. 133 deg 5 nmH. 883 mbI. 12 C / 3063 mJ. 28 C / 2901 mK. 11 C / NAL. CLOSED WALLM. C7N. 12345 / 7O. 1 / 1 nmP. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55ZMAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS

 

883mb with 45kts, suggests 879mb is pretty much the correct call.

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For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall.

You might be right, if the trochoidal idea is right, then it should start moving more NNW soon.

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Media sensationalization ftw:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/hurricane-patricia/

 

"Hurricane Patricia-- The Strongest Hurricane ever recorded--"

 

Not quite, CNN, not quite

 

I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think 175kts is the highest advisory intensity for any tropical cyclone ever, so in that sense it would be the "strongest". Additionally, the 879mb would make it the deepest hurricane (not the deepest tropical cyclone). So it's not really sensationalization.

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I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think 175kts is the highest advisory intensity for any tropical cyclone ever, so in that sense it would be the "strongest". Additionally, the 879mb would make it the deepest hurricane (not the deepest tropical cyclone). So it's not really sensationalization.

Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained.

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For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall.

 

I think you may be right that this will wobble back, but the way it bounced off of 105W I don't know that it can get as far east as La Manzanilla.  Josh's play might be right.

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Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained.

 

Tip was a typhoon. They said hurricane. And I don't know the advisory intensities for Tip, but as far as I can see the highest 1m sustained winds for Tip were 165kts (190mph). It was a huge storm, so even though the pressure was lower, the gradient may not have been as strong.

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I don't know who this Josh is but I assume he knows his stuff regarding the tropics. With that said tho, I hope he gets out of the direct path and loses the tunnel vision ASAP. This isn't some Cat 1-2 storm...,this is the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Serious concerns for this persons well-being.

 

HurricaneJosh dude.  He knows what he's doing.

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