WxBlue Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS GSP is now forecasting record breaking snow for Asheville. They're going with 13-19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've never seen numbers like 17-18 inches thrown over McDowell county by GSP and the NWS. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS GSP is now forecasting record breaking snow for Asheville. They're going with 13-19". Yeah they are really putting a blanket out with all the numbers. Iv seen 4 to 8 to 14 to 24 inches where it stays all anow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What kind of ratios could we expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've never seen numbers like 17-18 inches thrown over McDowell county by GSP and the NWS. Crazy stuff. I know right, it was 93 the last time I saw a forecast like this. GSP has Marion maxed out at 22in on the detailed forecast and changed us from snow/sleet to all snow from 1am till lunch time Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's my final call: This was before NWS updated their forecasts, so... *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Getting real now! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm hurting guys! LOL this is the pinpoint for my old house! Tonight Rain and sleet before 1am, then snow and sleet between 1am and 2am, then snow after 2am. Patchy fog after 11pm. Low around 26. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Snow. Patchy fog. High near 28. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. Low around 24. North wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow! Gfs just came in colder and looks more like the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 After looking at 18z NAM12, I moved my snow bonanza location to Mt Leconte. Looks like it reads 4" qpf for that location?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't like the big hole in Buncombe County that this QPF map shows. I assume this is from downsloping winds? Still should be a good amount of snow, but the map suggests closer to 8 inches than 18 for western Buncombe. That may not be a bad thing if everyone is getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guys this is really long but I have to post the near term AFD from GSP. Just got to save it for posterity! Sorry for the length! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM...MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE COLUMN AS THE ATMOS MOISTENS AND PRECIP BEGINS. EVEN THEN...PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE LATTER AREAS. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION SO SNOW AND SLEET IN THE LATTER AREAS WITH THE SNOW/SLEET MIX IN AND CHANGE OVER SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CHANGE OVER IS CAUSED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING THEN A STRONG BARRIER JET DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING. THE BARRIER JET WILL BRING COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU DAYBREAK KEEPING PRECIP AS SNOW OR SLEET FOR ALL BUT THE AREAS SOUTH OF A TOCCOA...ANDERSON TO LAURENS LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX...BUT SHUD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THAT CHANGES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR COMES RUSHING IN AND HEAVIER PRECIP DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT ICE ACCRETIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY FROZEN. HOWEVER...SNOW AND SLEET WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...2 TO 4 OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AND GENERALLY 4 TO 6 ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WRN VALLEYS OF GRAHAM AND SWAIN WHERE WARMER TEMPS MAY LINGER. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WRN CWFA BY LATE ON FRI. STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRONG DEEP LIFTING. A STRONG H85 JET MOVES IN AS WELL...KEEPING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DEEP WARM NOSE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE WARM NOSE WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ERN PIEDMONT OF THE UPSTATE. THE NON-MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL BE TRICKY AS THEY WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH THE STRONG BARRIER JET...THE WARM NOSE WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS STRONGLY...AND THE NEARBY LAKES WILL KEEP THE SFC TEMPS WARMER. HOWEVER...AS THE H85 JET MOVES EAST...THE WARM NOSE WILL WEAKEN AND THE BARRIER JET WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD BE APPROACHING THE PHYSICAL LIMIT...ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ERN UPSTATE PIEDMONT. THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER LOCATIONS WILL BE ON THE BORDER OF A QUARTER INCH ACCUMS...BUT WILL ADD TO THE WARNING FOR CONSISTENCY. THE LAKELANDS AND ELBERT COUNTY WILL NOT SEE MUCH ICE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE ENUF OF A MIX THAT AN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS...A DIFFERENT STORY DEVELOPS. THE WARM NOSE WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT DOES MOVE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN OVER THESE LOCATIONS...THE WARM NOSE IS NOT AS STRONG AS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...THEY WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SLEET FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT MTNS WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW THROUGHOUT. THE TN BORDER AREAS WILL BE THE TRICKY LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS COULD WARM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COLD AND DRY BARRIER JET AND DEEPER COLD AIR. THIS MAY LIMIT ACCUMS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THAT SAID...THIS ENTIRE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN SOLIDLY IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOW AND/OR SLEET. THE LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL ICE...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH ACCRETION SOUTH OF I-40 FROM CATAWBA EAST. AGAIN SNOW AND SLEET ARE THE BIGGER STORY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN SERN ROWAN COUNTY TO A FOOT OR MORE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 10 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS DOWN ACROSS THE SC AND NE GA MTNS AND INTO THE NC VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF GRAHAM AND WRN SWAIN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't like the big hole in Buncombe County that this QPF map shows. I assume this is from downsloping winds? Still should be a good amount of snow, but the map suggests closer to 8 inches than 18 for western Buncombe. That may not be a bad thing if everyone is getting clobbered. Asheville is the driest location in North Carolina for a reason. A rain/snow minimum should always be assumed there as a first start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The radar looks awesome fellas. All kinds of storms and convection in that huge swath rotating in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was actually worried for a little bit today because we actually warmed up quite nicely but we have dropped down to 37 already. Exciting night/day ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Kerosene heater: check Plenty of Pringles: check Two Pounds of Coffee: check Local Brew for each Inch: check Sled/Ski's, & Snow Shovel: check Flashlights & Gopro: check I am guess the rest of you are getting your necessities, good luck everyone.. I am going to try and stay awake for every flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Kerosene heater: check Plenty of Pringles: check Two Pounds of Coffee: check Local Brew for each Inch: check Sled/Ski's, & Snow Shovel: check Flashlights & Gopro: check I am guess the rest of you are getting your necessities, good luck everyone.. I am going to try and stay awake for every flake! Lol a good list Ward. If need be I'll pitch a tent and build a fire and pretend I'm camping in the woods lol. Iv got all camping necessities to survive fellas. Hunker down and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was actually worried for a little bit today because we actually warmed up quite nicely but we have dropped down to 37 already. Exciting night/day ahead!yeah temps warmed up very nice today but have dropped back to 33 currently. I tell you what right before a big snowstorm in the mountains it seems the day before we always have beautiful weather. Today was no exception. Big time coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Below freezing here (29.8) after a high of 34.2. Not much of the 4 inches that I got yesterday which fell on top of the 2 Monday has melted. Secondary roads here are still pretty much a mess. If we get what they're calling for we will be in trouble. Good luck to all and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just for reference here's Ray's Weather Center's last call. Don't really agree with the 4-8 he has for Waynesville and Asheville. Everything else looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just for reference here's Ray's Weather Center's last call. Don't really agree with the 4-8 he has for Waynesville and Asheville. Everything else looks pretty good. Yeah that 4 to 8 runs right over my place. We will see but a little odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah that 4 to 8 runs right over my place. We will see but a little odd. His depiction of the Smokies is going to be wildly inaccurate. Looks like temps are ranging from 27 to 32 in the highest elevations with 30's in the valleys. For sure, temps will quickly wet bulb below freezing everywhere. Now what precip type? Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 His depiction of the Smokies is going to be wildly inaccurate. Looks like temps are ranging from 27 to 32 in the highest elevations with 30's in the valleys. For sure, temps will quickly wet bulb below freezing everywhere. Now what precip type? Hmm. Yeah I think we may just start out as snow right off the bat. I think snow for majority of the event really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah I think we may just start out as snow right off the bat. I think snow for majority of the event really. Balsam might be the dividing line between a mix to the SW and snow points to the NE for the first part of the storm. If the webcam there quickly goes to snow..will be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well. Besides the QPF maps looking kinda off in places with dry spots, We made it to the biggest storm in a while. Like it was mentioned before, we hit 42 in ashe with full sun earlier, but luckily for us, the clouds haven't really filled in much yet and temps are dropping fast. I look forward to hearing what you guys are getting that are SW of me. I'm stuck at work for three days so not getting to enjoy it like I would like, but free food for 3 days might make up for it. Good luck guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have a weird feeling that a lot of the QPF is going to be East of the mountains and foothills, limiting some of these giant totals for us. No reason or evidence for it outside of some of the recent model runs. Should the position of the low being further south than originally modeled be worrisome or good news for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just wanted to say guys & I'm not done posting but it has been a blast tracking this one with you all! The Mnt thread is the best on the whole board. You guys let people from everywhere come & go as they please and don't bash anyone. It's nice the mods give you the leeway to police the thread as you see fit. Your all a special group of people & I feel really close to you all even though I haven't met you. My hope is that all of you stay safe and set personal records for this one!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just wanted to say guys & I'm not done posting but it has been a blast tracking this one with you all! The Mnt thread is the best on the whole board. You guys let people from everywhere come & go as they please and don't bash anyone. It's nice the mods give you the leeway to police the thread as you see fit. Your all a special group of people & I feel really close to you all even though I haven't met you. My hope is that all of you stay safe and set personal records for this one!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Very nice! I hope Florida has been working out for you! FYI..precip should develop within 30 minutes or less in Balsam. The HRRR is showing some wildly varying precip amounts over night with huge enhancements near Highlands, the Plotts and the Smokies over 2" of precip with not much more than trace amounts in some of the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have a weird feeling that a lot of the QPF is going to be East of the mountains and foothills, limiting some of these giant totals for us. No reason or evidence for it outside of some of the recent model runs. Should the position of the low being further south than originally modeled be worrisome or good news for us? I actually think that once the low transfers the best spot is going to be the east side of the apps along the blue ridge. Kind of happened last year with the big low in February, the further west you went the less snow. Example. I live In jefferson, we had 13 inches, at my boss's house which is in on the west side, Crumpler i believe, she had 9 inches. i'm not sure if this setup will have the same results, but I do believe the heaviest amounts will be the western foothills and east side of the mtns. I don't have much data to back it up, more of a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I actually think that once the low transfers the best spot is going to be the east side of the apps along the blue ridge. Kind of happened last year with the big low in February, the further west you went the less snow. Example. I live In jefferson, we had 13 inches, at my boss's house which is in on the west side, Crumpler i believe, she had 9 inches. i'm not sure if this setup will have the same results, but I do believe the heaviest amounts will be the western foothills and east side of the mtns. I don't have much data to back it up, more of a hunch. That's a good hunch. I could see that happening . Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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