franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The main slug of precip will be moving in from the southwest. It develops on the TN/AL border and then moves east until the low transfers. The northern mountains need a quicker phase to happen and for it to try and go neg tilt as the moisture arrives.what does the Euro have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gsp is practically like, what storm... That has me a little concerned. There thinking a dusting at best below 4500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Hard to get excited when GSP onlys hints with a little rain/snow mix with NO accumulation.. They are right 95% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z nam was another good hit. Looks like the 12Z cut totals in half from 6Z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like the 12Z cut totals in half from 6Z run?looked about the same, maybe a little less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I guess the NAM must not be a very reliable model since the NWS is saying this is pretty much a non-event for the SW mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 what does the Euro have? Euro had .4" of Qpf for AVL and .5" for Franklin. So twice as much precip in AVL on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z and .1" more for Franklin. Temps are very borderline through the column so I would love to see a colder trend over the next 18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro had .4" of Qpf for AVL and .5" for Franklin. So twice as much precip in AVL on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z and .1" more for Franklin. Temps are very borderline through the column so I would love to see a colder trend over the next 18 hrs.rgem came in a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Considering the track, will there be much flow snow behind this storm as it goes up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Surprised WLOS is being so bullish, GSP thinks this will be a non event, even the higher Mtns looks to get a half inch at best. Wonder what there seeing that were not, maybe temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 All models show a decent event except for the Gfs, maybe that's what they are looking at? Even the Gfs para has a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 All models show a decent event except for the Gfs, maybe that's what they are looking at? Even the Gfs para has a decent hit. That's what I was thinking, the Euro has been fairly consistent the last few days, even the GFS didn't look to terrible. I have alot of respect for GSP, there normally spot on, that's what worry's me, maybe they will change there tune by tomorrow, if the rest of the runs remain consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That's what I was thinking, the Euro has been fairly consistent the last few days, even the GFS didn't look to terrible. I have alot of respect for GSP, there normally spot on, that's what worry's me, maybe they will change there tune by tomorrow, if the rest of the runs remain consistent. I suspect that if the upstate is not in play, even above I-85, GSP can get a little lackadaisical. If this is going to be anything, it's strictly going to be an NC Mountain special, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I suspect that if the upstate is not in play, even above I-85, GSP can get a little lackadaisical. If this is going to be anything, it's strictly going to be an NC Mountain special, it appears. One thing to factor in is that road temps are likely going to still be pretty warm going into this, which should limit travel impacts to some degree, even for areas that get several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 One thing to factor in is that road temps are likely going to still be pretty warm going into this, which should limit travel impacts to some degree, even for areas that get several inches of snow. Absolutely. I have seen this setup many times in my life. GSP downplays it, it snows a few inches but doesn't hinder travel, it melts by the afternoon. I remember being in school in March, it would snow, they'd call off school, and the snow would dang near be gone by the time I got to the house. My gut is telling me a few inches, but I understand GSP's stance in believing this will not be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination. I could see a few wet inches sticking to the grass and trees, and come Friday at 5, we'll have a muddy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 One thing to factor in is that road temps are likely going to still be pretty warm going into this, which should limit travel impacts to some degree, even for areas that get several inches of snow. Roads were white in many places this morning in the Boone area so I honestly don't see that being a factor what so ever. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Roads were white in many places this morning in the Boone area so I honestly don't see that being a factor what so ever. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I don't think so either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Snow is still on track at elevation esp 4,000 FT. Some models are balking on snow output. Believe it is due to a warm 850-700 mb partial thickness. At elevation it does not matter as much as elsewhere. Traditional and more relevant 1000-500 mb thickness is at 540 no problem. A look at 700 mb alone shows -10C most models which is great for snow. The 1000-700 mb partial thickness is also favorable. Perhaps models are confused by the 850-700 mb thickness, which does not hurt at elevation. So the surface is 35 F a couple hours before sunset Thursday, not a show stopper at all. 12Z NAM has a dry slot that allows the boundary layer to warm up a bit for a few hours, 850 slightly above freezing and 700 at -6 or so, if a dry slot really does verify perfectly 36 hours out. Yeah it happened right before President's Day but this is a different situation. No massive warm push is forecast during the event. QPF still looks nice. And the 18Z NAM just in removes of the above trouble. Even if a dry slot comes over, it is just a break not the end. Look for the NWFS encore into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like we just got NAM'ED fellas lol. Looking good for a few inches in all of WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Snow is still on track at elevation esp 4,000 FT. Some models are balking on snow output. Believe it is due to a warm 850-700 mb partial thickness. At elevation it does not matter as much as elsewhere. Traditional and more relevant 1000-500 mb thickness is at 540 no problem. A look at 700 mb alone shows -10C most models which is great for snow. The 1000-700 mb partial thickness is also favorable. Perhaps models are confused by the 850-700 mb thickness, which does not hurt at elevation. So the surface is 35 F a couple hours before sunset Thursday, not a show stopper at all. NAM has a dry slot that allows the boundary layer to warm up a bit for a few hours, 850 slightly above freezing and 700 at -6 or so, if a dry slot really does verify perfectly 36 hours out. Yeah it happened right before President's Day but this is a different situation. No massive warm push is forecast during the event. QPF still looks nice. Even if a dry slot comes over, it is just a break not the end. Look for the NWFS encore into Friday morning. Great post Jeff! I am thinking that this one surprises a few people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z Nam was a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GSP seems to be getting on board somewhat. From the HWO: ..THURSDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAYAFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TOOCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLYABOVE 3500 FEET. ..FRIDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOWFREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAYMORNING. UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES MAY DEVELOP BLACK ICE ORPACKED SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THEMORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 GSP seems to be getting on board somewhat. From the HWO: ..THURSDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET. ..FRIDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES MAY DEVELOP BLACK ICE OR PACKED SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE. Yep seems so. Things are looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 18z Nam and rgem just came in a lot colder.the12z Gfs para is much colder too,it also dumps a ton of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 18z Nam and rgem just came in a lot colder.the12z Gfs para is much colder too,it also dumps a ton of qpf same old stuff, I guess nothing for Buncombe County? last I heard maybe a inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 same old stuff, I guess nothing for Buncombe County? last I heard maybe a inch. Boyer said nothing for Asheville and a maybe an inch or two for the "mountains". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Been watching several tv mets the past little bit and everything I'm hearing is MAYBE an inch or two from all of them that I have seen thus far. Doesn't line up with the models all too well but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Boyer said nothing for Asheville and a maybe an inch or two for the "mountains". So WLOS went back to ultra conservative..... Sounds about right, I guess I'll have to wait for the morning newscast to get the low down haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Boyer said nothing for Asheville and a maybe an inch or two for the "mountains". I like him fine, but it drives me up a freaking wall that he doesn't consider Asheville in the "mountains." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 I like him fine, but it drives me up a freaking wall that he doesn't consider Asheville in the "mountains."Yeah I met him a few times around Asheville. A very nice guy and family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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