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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Web cam at Wolf Ridge showing nice snow event currently.

 

Model battle commences for the possible Mon storm.

 

GSP overnight afd:

 

GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU ON

MON. THE GFS HAS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THRU FROM THE NW WITH

LITTLE GULF OR ATLANTIC IN FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG FRONT MOVING

IN FROM THE WEST WITH STRONG GULF INFLOW. SURFACE AND H85 TEMPS

WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH

MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND AND KEPT POP

IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE BASED ON

SURFACE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST

WITH CHANGES LIKELY AS IT APPROACHES.

Hello Don...Thanks for alerting me about the Monday system...I looked at Wunderground's in-house model, Best Forecast, and it's calling for 4 - 8" on Monday/Tuesday here

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I really don't post but have a question for you guys in the Mts. I will be traveling from Raleigh to Western Carolina University on Thurs. for a campus tour with my daughter. Will I be O.K. for the drive? Thanks!

You should be fine! Thursday looks to be the only calm day around here this week and they keep the highways pretty clean so I wouldn't worry too much.

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Bet Buladean is getting hammered.

Heck ya!  I drive a school bus for the school where I teach and when school is open, the kids always text me about their road conditions before I leave out in the morning.  One kid on Hughes Gap road said he had 6"   That may be a little overdone but probably spot on!

 

Iron mountain is tough on a summer day let alone a NWF snow storm. Yikes.

Oh yes.  About 5 years ago, we dismissed school a lil too late.  About 2/3 thru my route, I was looking at 4" of snow on NC 226 so I stopped and the remaining kids help me chain up the school bus.  All kids were taken home with no problems but I got the strangest looks from stranded motorists at the top of Iron Mtn where I turned around...Lol

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Agreed flow looks very good. I would like the winds to get up a bit more though so the French Broad River Valley could get a bit of accumulation.

I'm new to the mountains so what are some things to look for when dealing with a flow event?
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Yes as usual west asheville only getting flurries.  we have gotten some descent accumulations out of this before but so far not a whole lot happening, grassy surfaces are white but we can't seem to get the snow to come down heavy enough this time, maybe this evening will produce a little more.   maybe Sunday night Monday timeframe we can get a better system going.  :snowwindow:

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I'm new to the mountains so what are some things to look for when dealing with a flow event?

I like to look at the size of the fetch of moisture that is inbound, then I analyze the relative humidity at 700mb and then the adjacent winds at that level. 80%+ RH and winds of 25+kts should be enough to get flakes to valleys around 2000'. Without those high winds though, an abundance of moisture is required to get flakes out of the mountains. Hope that makes since.

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I like to look at the size of the fetch of moisture that is inbound, then I analyze the relative humidity at 700mb and then the adjacent winds at that level. 80%+ RH and winds of 25+kts should be enough to get flakes to valleys around 2000'. Without those high winds though, an abundance of moisture is required to get flakes out of the mountains. Hope that makes since.

Yeah it does! Thanks a lot
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Yes as usual west asheville only getting flurries. we have gotten some descent accumulations out of this before but so far not a whole lot happening, grassy surfaces are white but we can't seem to get the snow to come down heavy enough this time, maybe this evening will produce a little more. maybe Sunday night Monday timeframe we can get a better system going. :snowwindow:

Looks like a little banding setting up now over our valley fritschy, hopefully the rates picks up soon.

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Just on the other side of the hill from you guys in Erwin, TN.  Technically a valley location, it's been "ripping all morning here" with temps in the mid 20s.  Mountain locations on the TN side are well over 6 inches by this point.  Estimated 4-5 here in the valley.

Where did Snowless in Carrolton go?  Hope the old boy is all right.  Best of luck this makes it to your side today and tonight!

post-1186-0-92282700-1455031646_thumb.jp

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