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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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12 Z NAM came in drier for today's snow. (Looks very healthy on radar however.)

Tomorrow night...pounds the Balsams with very heavy snow/great orographic enhancement due to the 40 knot 850 mb SW wind flow as a CAD develops all the way SW past Jackson County. It might change to a mix by 15Z at ridgetop as the winds increase further to has much as 60 knots but more out of the SSW at cloud level but remaining SE below the ridge line. It changes back to snow by 0Z.

Note: The sun is suddenly out in the Balsams with a brief break before the main area of precip arrives.

is there a warm layer between 850 and 700?
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The 12Z center of mayhem is where I grew up near Front Royal, Virginia/Shenadoah National Park with totals near 40".

 

I was born and raised right here in WNC, however when I first joined the military they sent me straight to Washington, DC for security duty. I was a country boy lost in that big 'ol city so Front Royal became my home away from home. I'd jump on I-66 with a tent and spend the weekends up on Skyline Drive. 

 

I have fond memories of that area.

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I was thinking about a storm chase to the mountains near Front Royal to help my parents out there but have a rather busy schedule already planned not to mention my tires on my Outback are rather worn and not really up for extreme Winter driving.

That area historically has picked up snows of similar magnitude due to its favorable location next to the Blue Ridge(which captures the moist Easterly winds) and it would be no surprise to me if that area ends up being ground zero for this event.

I know they were in a great spot in 96. You think this could be bigger than 96 for them?
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I know they were in a great spot in 96. You think this could be bigger than 96 for them?

Maybe but the storm will need to stall a bit so that the wrap around moisture can linger longer in the same area.  With the strong High to the NE, it might just do that.

 

Note: As of 11 AM...snow has redeveloped in the Balsams.

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is there a warm layer between 850 and 700?

 Yes but closer to 850..and it is much thicker/warmer as you move SW beyond the Balsams as is normally the case.

 

Really, I have no idea what form the precip will take on the front end of this next storm. For instance, the very highest peaks might just be above most of the melting layer so still get mostly all snow. Another scenario...only the most east facing ridgeline gets the heavy snow due to local cooling of the column due to upslope..where areas to the NW get a mix or rain.(Note: There is really 2 upslope components to this system...low-level upslope out of a SE direction below cloud level and SW upslope at/above cloud level.)

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST...EVEN VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN
REMARKABLY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING A SLIPPERY DUSTING OF SNOW DESPITE
THE DRY SUB CLOUD AIR. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM ARE NOW
PRESENTING MORE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH A NARROW WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WET BULB PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW UNTIL MID
LEVELS DRY OUT THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN QPF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD/SLIPPERY ROADWAYS IMPACT...HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO
STEPHENS COUNTY IN NE GA...THE UPSTATE MOUNTAINS...AND THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO UPGRADE GRAHAM COUNTY TO A
WARNING WITH 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW TOTALS QUITE WIDESPREAD AS THE HEAVIER
RATES MOVES IN WITH THE REFLECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST.

 

CZLUi2TWQAEKs4P.jpg

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OK folks, time to talk impacts from the Friday storm.

 

A few questions have come up around the office and I am wondering what you all think in response.

 

1. Will this be a heavy wet snow, or will it be fluffy?  That is, if we use the GFS (for now) and assume 10" of snow, will that cause power outages?  Or if the Euro verifies, say 16" of snow, will that cause power outages?  If it's a fluffy snow it's probably a non-issue.

 

2. Winds.  We haven't talked much about this, but it's a big storm system.  If winds blow while it is snowing, it may prevent anything from sticking to power lines and trees, resulting in much less power outage issues.

 

Thoughts?  Is this a December 2009 replica, or something entirely different?

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OK folks, time to talk impacts from the Friday storm.

A few questions have come up around the office and I am wondering what you all think in response.

1. Will this be a heavy wet snow, or will it be fluffy? That is, if we use the GFS (for now) and assume 10" of snow, will that cause power outages? Or if the Euro verifies, say 16" of snow, will that cause power outages? If it's a fluffy snow it's probably a non-issue.

2. Winds. We haven't talked much about this, but it's a big storm system. If winds blow while it is snowing, it may prevent anything from sticking to power lines and trees, resulting in much less power outage issues.

Thoughts? Is this a December 2009 replica, or something entirely different?

looks like a heavy wet snow probably with some mixing at times. I think as the upper low comes thru ( hopefully thru north georgia ) then it should be more powder.
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OK folks, time to talk impacts from the Friday storm.

A few questions have come up around the office and I am wondering what you all think in response.

1. Will this be a heavy wet snow, or will it be fluffy? That is, if we use the GFS (for now) and assume 10" of snow, will that cause power outages? Or if the Euro verifies, say 16" of snow, will that cause power outages? If it's a fluffy snow it's probably a non-issue.

2. Winds. We haven't talked much about this, but it's a big storm system. If winds blow while it is snowing, it may prevent anything from sticking to power lines and trees, resulting in much less power outage issues.

Thoughts? Is this a December 2009 replica, or something entirely different?

I am thinking this is going to be a very dangerous storm HT. After the euro confirms this I am going to begin to sound the alarm on Ashevillewx. People in WNC need to take this threat very seriously.

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I am thinking this is going to be a very dangerous storm HT. After the euro confirms this I am going to begin to sound the alarm on Ashevillewx. People in WNC need to take this threat very seriously.

 

Yea good call there.  I do fully expect the Euro to hold.  Given the GEFS tending 12"+ now, I wouldn't be surprised to see 15-18" (again!) on the Euro.  We shall see momentarily.

 

I will need to get bottled water and propane to prepare for extended power outages.

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I think I have seen enough.  GEFS and Euro show nearly the same solution.  Mountains will average 12-18" of snow, very little ZR or IP (and even if that happens, it would be at the very start of the event).  Cold air damming appears to win out, especially eastern slopes.  Western areas, from Franklin to Sylva, even to Haywood county, might not be able to stay as cold.  Could be much more trouble there.  But from AVL east and north to Boone, Blowing Rock, etc., this looks big.

 

I'm all in on this one.  Let's just make sure 00Z runs don't shift significantly.  At this point though, with 36 hours to go before we start, I think it's a lock.

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I think I have seen enough. GEFS and Euro show nearly the same solution. Mountains will average 12-18" of snow, very little ZR or IP (and even if that happens, it would be at the very start of the event). Cold air damming appears to win out, especially eastern slopes. Western areas, from Franklin to Sylva, even to Haywood county, might not be able to stay as cold. Could be much more trouble there. But from AVL east and north to Boone, Blowing Rock, etc., this looks big.

I'm all in on this one. Let's just make sure 00Z runs don't shift significantly. At this point though, with 36 hours to go before we start, I think it's a lock.

Yeahh HT me today too! This one has blockbuster written all over.

Here was my FB post:

The GFS has began to fold to the European model, and for snow lovers that is great news. I believe that we are on the cusp of a very dangerous storm and today will be the day to begin preparing. The low pressure has continued to be modeled now by the Euro to undercut the Apps and reform on the SC coast and now the GFS is showing a similar path. We are talking about the possibility for feet of snowfall here in WNC with mind blowing totals in the higher elevation. Today you should be stocking up on firewood, kerosene, water, bread, and other necessities. Winds will roar after this systems moves through Saturday afternoon and that will bring down countless trees onto power lines. I am not trying to scare anyone but this has the potential to be a blockbuster storm and one that goes down in history. I am going all in and telling you to get prepared to endure a wicked storm. There is also the possibility of ice mixing in with snowfall and that will complicate things further. Once again, I believe WNC is on the cusp of a very large winter storm and now is the time to begin to prepare. I will update later today after the 12z model runs, have a great Wednesday!

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I feel safe asking a MBY question in here. Thoughts on the southern foothills. I assume this area will be fighting a stiff warm layer during the heavy period (hr 54-66) and that will produce frzn rain. I also assume snow/sleet on the front end (as shown on the NAM) and back end snow. 

General thoughts would be great.  

 

I think I have seen enough.  GEFS and Euro show nearly the same solution.  Mountains will average 12-18" of snow, very little ZR or IP (and even if that happens, it would be at the very start of the event).  Cold air damming appears to win out, especially eastern slopes.  Western areas, from Franklin to Sylva, even to Haywood county, might not be able to stay as cold.  Could be much more trouble there.  But from AVL east and north to Boone, Blowing Rock, etc., this looks big.

 

I'm all in on this one.  Let's just make sure 00Z runs don't shift significantly.  At this point though, with 36 hours to go before we start, I think it's a lock.

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I feel safe asking a MBY question in here. Thoughts on the southern foothills. I assume this area will be fighting a stiff warm layer during the heavy period (hr 54-66) and that will produce frzn rain. I also assume snow/sleet on the front end (as shown on the NAM) and back end snow. 

General thoughts would be great.  

 

Well, even the Euro shows 6-9" for your area, and many GEFS members have something similar.  What concerns me is that the onset will be ZR given the strength of the WAA (60kt 850 jet) and strong wedge configuration.  Eventually the storm track pulls the cold air in at all levels, and then you change to snow.  Basically a real wintry mess in your area...ZR, IP, then SN.  No doubt Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met.

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My personal record is about 10-11" from December 26, 2010 snowstorm in Eastern NC. This event will certainly break that record for me.

I think mine is about 32" in 24 hours.  I have seen a couple 5 inches/hour during lake effect in Michigan and in the Blue Ridge of Virginia.

 

Note: Heavy snow is now falling even in the lower elevations of Balsam/Waynesville area.

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Is the AVL dryhole a concern for this event? Few high-res models seem to show this, but I'm not sure that's the case since it's not coming from NW?

 

 

I think mine is about 32" in 24 hours.  I have seen a couple 5 inches/hour during lake effect in Michigan and in the Blue Ridge of Virginia.

 

Chasing lake effect snow is a dream of mine's :)

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