wncsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Per Model discussion/early ensembles..think the heavy snowfall is placed too far to the SW. Per this Euro Map..should be clear that even a modest adjustment back to the NE will drastically lower snowfall locally. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-962-0-49426000-1453228758.jpg Should be fun to see how this turns out. The EURO ensembles are lock step with the Op almost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Per Model discussion/early ensembles..think the heavy snowfall is placed too far to the SW. Per this Euro Map..should be clear that even a modest adjustment back to the NE will drastically lower snowfall locally. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-962-0-49426000-1453228758.jpg Should be fun to see how this turns out. Which early ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EURO ensembles are lock step with the Op almost...Was just going to say. I think we do need to be very cautious of this setup as this has a high risk bust potential. As of right now it's hard to go against the euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EURO has a pretty darn good record when it comes to big storms.. look at Sandy.. Joaquin.. Jan 96.. and many more.. The GFS/ or its earlier cousin struggled mightily with those events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Which early ensembles? See WPC discussion. Note also that NWS Greenville is hedging on whether to include the new Euro solution and still offers more of the mixed variety of precip for the mountains. http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KGSP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm never looking at this current run of the Euro again. I had to walk outside at work get in my car and yell and dance for about 5 or so minutes. That was an insane run of the euro. And it has support from other models as well. Next 48 hours are going to be fun to watch for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW, NWS GSP is calling for 1-2 inches in Asheville tomorrow. That might keep us cooler than what models are showing for the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW, NWS GSP is calling for 1-2 inches in Asheville tomorrow. That might keep us cooler than what models are showing for the big storm.It could bUT don't see it as a big deal. The ground is frozen solid already. At least here in Haywood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good balanced professional discussion here in the Mountain thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think this is less of an issue that it used to be. Satellite ingest is rather good now as satellite data has been upgraded over the years. That being said, Euro is still superior at satellite ingest than others. I'd say the model solution won't change much even after it has been sampled by the RAOB network. That's a very good point you raised there. It could bUT don't see it as a big deal. The ground is frozen solid already. At least here in Haywood. I think you guys are going to do well. At least for us in Asheville, I think this minor snow might be enough to push us over the hump with temperature of the lower 5,000 feet for down the road in addition to the history of global models underestimating the strength of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think the biggest difference with the euro is the confluence in the NE and less with the s/w sampling. I too am skeptical of how cold the euro is in the southern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z EPS snowfall avg for KAVL is right around 12"-13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think the biggest difference with the euro is the confluence in the NE and less with the s/w sampling. I too am skeptical of how cold the euro is in the southern mtns.Yeah I have seen several systems like this go both ways. Most recently the Dec 18 2009 storm. We where suppose to change to rain after only getting 3 to 6 inches of snow but it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 To me everything is still on the table. I do believe the more north you are the better you are. I'm not sold on anything but tomorrows system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good balanced professional discussion here in the Mountain thread.Yep good discussion from our mountain peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm saving the euro op and ensemble meteograms for later when they bust! There is no way I get 12" of snow down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah I have seen several systems like this go both ways. Most recently the Dec 18 2010 storm. We where suppose to change to rain after only getting 3 to 6 inches of snow but it never happened. 85, do you mean the Dec 18 2009 storm? I don't remember a big snow right before the Christmas storm that year. If the 09 storm is what you are referring to it was one of the most awesome storms I've been through. We hadn't had a whopper since 93 & we got it all. Looked like a war zone with fallen trees, abandoned vehicles, thunder snow, & a 54 hour power outage at my house. 16" of wet paste & then a additional 2" of powdery flow snow for a total of 18". I remember it started as snow changed to rain for a half hour went back to snow & all hell broke loose! Anyway back to this storm I am not qualified to make predictions but I like the look for most of the Mnts. I think the very far SW Mnts may have some issues but overall I think this is the best chance for a big event since I left. Remember guys don't hang your hats on one model run. Look for trends in the models. I'm excited for you guys and will be doing some vicarious living thru some of you! Someone in NC is going to jackpot with this! Good luck to all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Probably the best route to go around here, but nobody will ever accuse Jason Boyer of hyping snow in Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Probably the best route to go around here, but nobody will ever accuse Jason Boyer of hyping snow in Asheville. What's up Jason? What was his drivel on the upcoming systems? I think most tv mets are handcuffed by station execs. If not there are some Real winners on the air! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW, NWS GSP is calling for 1-2 inches in Asheville tomorrow. That might keep us cooler than what models are showing for the big storm. I think they are being overly generous for Asheville and not generous enough for the Balsams. Dry air and downsloping off the Balsams will limit snowfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Noticed you guys to the south have a WWA. Nada here. Enjoy! I love it when anyone in the mountains get snow. Only managed a high today of 16.3. Back down to 13.8 now. It's still breezy as well. Going to be another cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think they are being overly generous for Asheville and not generous enough for the Balsams. Dry air and downsloping off the Balsams will limit snowfall there. Yep I agree. I think an inch in Asheville would be a huge win but downsloping is going to kill this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What's up Jason? What was his drivel on the upcoming systems? I think most tv mets are handcuffed by station execs. If not there are some Real winners on the air! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hey Don ! He mentioned the Euro, but he said any real moisture would be gone before the change to snow. I think he is knowledgeable, and I understand the need to be conservative.( I think he overdoes the conservative angle though) One thing he does that drives me crazy is when he speaks of Asheville and then mentions the mountains as if they are in a separate location. Argghh !!! I hope it's a big one. I wish you were here to enjoy it(hopefully) with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey Don ! He mentioned the Euro, but he said any real moisture would be gone before the change to snow. I think he is knowledgeable, and I understand the need to be conservative.( I think he overdoes the conservative angle though) One thing he does that drives me crazy is when he speaks of Asheville and then mentions the mountains as if they are in a separate location. Argghh !!! I hope it's a big one. I wish you were here to enjoy it(hopefully) with us. I agree, I grew up here in the 50's and 60's, 70's and Asheville was always considered the Mtns. then you had the higher elevations. I don't know why channel 13 started saying Asheville and then in another breath but the Mtns will get snow, Asheville was and in my book has always been in the Mtns. Anything from Old Fort west is the Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think they are being overly generous for Asheville and not generous enough for the Balsams. Dry air and downsloping off the Balsams will limit snowfall there. Yep I agree. I think an inch in Asheville would be a huge win but downsloping is going to kill this flow. Yeah, that was my first thought when I saw GSP's graphic. I was wondering where they were getting 2" from considering most mesoscale models are showing less than an inch. Downsloping will always limit snow totals in the city if the storm is coming from W or NW, but y'all know that already. EDIT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, that was my first thought when I saw GSP's graphic. I was wondering where they were getting 2" from considering most mesoscale models are showing less than an inch. Downsloping will always limit snow totals in the city if the storm is coming from W or NW, but y'all know that already. EDIT: Will be crazy if that banding stays strong into the southern foothills. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Will be crazy if that banding stays strong into the southern foothills. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Most models show it staying together through the mountains. Tomorrow should be a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tonight's nam is pretty amped for tomorrow. I think someone could see some decent totals tomorrow with this little system coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 HR 21 off the 00 run Tonight's nam is pretty amped for tomorrow. I think someone could see some decent totals tomorrow with this little system coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 HR 21 off the 00 run A nice look even for the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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