Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thanks guys! Yeah I agree I was a little conservative on the foothills. 1-2 degrees will make a big difference, I really hope you guys stay cold enough. This storm is just now getting going in the Gulf and you can already see the baroclinic leaf maturing over The TX/OK border. Looks to be in very close position to where it had been modeled setting up and it could be a tad bit north. The Gulf Low should explode over the next 6 hours. Hopefully we can get enough precip on the cold side to where we can all cash in!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

233 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN

RESPONSE...MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...AIDED BY

UPPER SUPPORT FROM SAID SHORTWAVE...WILL COMBINE WITH THERMAL

PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING

RAIN EARLY ON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS

COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WORK DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS

WILL MEET AND OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-170330-

/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0001.160117T0700Z-160117T1700Z/

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL...

MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...

WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...

CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS

233 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY

ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET OF THE NORTH CAROLINA

MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN

THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL

SNOW IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY MORNING AT THE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...THEN AROUND MID MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN

VALLEYS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO

1 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just slipped into the twenties (28.9) so don't think temps will be an issue here, just hope the moisture pans out. What time are the best rates expected to fall ?

Per latest HRRR, 6z for start of flurries...9z for decent snow..with a couple hour variation depending on location in WNC. Note..for your location..HRRR has very low QPF...the maximum is in the Balsams as only 0.1. NAM 12 is more generous with a 2 inches likely on your mtn. Which will be right? Model wind direction shows light winds at cloud base out of NW suggesting TN line solution but wind just above out of wsw suggesting Balsam mtn solution. Will see which solution verifies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's up fellas? Good luck on the current event. The one I have my eye on is the Friday Saturday 1/22-1/23 situation. A long way off but there's potential for it to be the one you have been waiting for. I'll be pop in to give some thoughts.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Agree. GFS/Euro had this current minor event for 5-6 days, so why not look forward to this upcoming Friday? Few models are going with Miller A look, so we'll have to see. I like how GEFS sided with Euro's idea of Miller A tonight, though.

 

EDIT: Also, that northwest flow look pretty decent Wednesday. Euro hit NE TN pretty good with 2-4" based on 10:1 ratio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I might have to get the gate code from you for the event next friday. As of now it's looking like rain below 5000'. The light event Wednesday might drop a few inches.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY AND PROBLEMATIC FROM

MID-WEEK ONWARD AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TWO SYSTEMS...AN

INITIAL ONE MAINLY DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER FORCING ON WEDNESDAY...

AND A FOLLOW-UP ONE DURING THE LATE WEEK THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO

BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. AS USUAL...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS DUE TO

RAPIDLY INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY. ON THE ONE

HAND...THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS OF A P-TYPE ISSUE. ON THE OTHER

HAND...THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE ACTUALLY SHOW

MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A FREEZING OR FROZEN P-TYPE. WITH THE

TREND IN THE GFS...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN

OVER THE PIEDMONT IS STARTING TO CREEP UP WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A

WINTER STORM DECLINES. IN SPITE OF OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE...IT SEEMS

MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR AS

THE LOW MOVES PAST FOR ANYTHING OTHER RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE

WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4K

FEET...WHERE THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMP PROFILES

COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND MAYBE LOTS OF IT. HAVE WARMED

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION BASED

ON THE WARM ADVECTION SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS CUT BACK QUITE

A BIT ON THE WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/MTNS.

COLD AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT

AND SATURDAY...SO THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT

WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN

BORDER. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL NOT MENTION ANY OF THIS IN THE

HWO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...