BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Starting to look reminiscent of last event hires_tprecip_syracuse_61 (1).png It's really tough to trust that model as well. .2" in a spot of Erie projected to get 1-2'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Starting to look reminiscent of last event hires_tprecip_syracuse_61 (1).png I thought last event was forecasted well. 10-18" or so total accums. The forecasted 24-30" by NWS was uncalled for IMO. I like this event better for your area, but again NW winds are just impossible to pin down and many times become nowcast events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm thinking we will have that "Weird" looking band that we've had with the past event, look at the latest HRRR for reference i think it has the right idea but will see.. Got a link? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Here comes the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The nws had the band to far north with the last event..Spotter reports out of fulton anywhere from 5-9"..They weren't totally off with snow totals, just location.. .CAYUGA COUNTY...4 S STERLING 32.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSVICTORY 24.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thunder and Lightning tomorrow in the heaviest bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The nws had the band to far north with the last event..Spotter reports out of fulton anywhere from 5-9"..They weren't totally off with snow totals, just location.. Will just say Fulton To Oswego/Mexico/Syracuse will get 2'+ storm totals by the middle of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Got a link? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Will just say Fulton To Oswego/Mexico/Syracuse will get 2'+ storm totals by the middle of the week. These single band (with upper lake connections) are quite rare down near SYR.....it really goes to show how important the connection is....otherwise, we usually go multiband any more than 300 or 310... Looks like 2-3' for a few lucky ones around my parts by Thurs.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I will check SR models again when i get home from work in the morning..Nam products do not like me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not impressed at all off Lake Erie. No one sees anywhere near 2 feet. Max of around 15-16" around Perrysburg, southtowns see less than 6" and city and northern burbs see less than 3". It's just not a good set up at all for them, it's just how this winter is going. Hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 News me so model buries all of monroe west to Niagara county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not impressed at all off Lake Erie. No one sees anywhere near 2 feet. Max of around 15-16" around Perrysburg, southtowns see less than 6" and city and northern burbs see less than 3". It's just not a good set up at all for them, it's just how this winter is going. Hope I'm wrong Why do you downplay every event? Not every lake effect band is going to produce feet of snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 News me so model buries all of monroe west to Niagara countyyeah, I'm not buying a 15 mile wide swath of 2 foot snow through mid and southern Monroe while leaving the lakeshore communities with 2-3". But I like the southern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Does seem a bit south but idea is monroe county in general is looking good for a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Normally maybe a marginal warning. But looks like a 3 lake connection. So potential is there for something special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally home and actually had a chance to really look at the models. I misunderstood why people thought Monroe and Orleans should be under watches and now agree they should have been, sorry if I seemed like an ass. It's definitely a very nice setup for the Southern shore, upstream connections will really dictate this event when it comes to band placement in Monroe and Orleans. Wayne to Oswego are a slam drunk though. A very juicy system which usually does well for us who need the short fetch. I'm in a very hit or miss location in West Central Monroe, Geo Bay is the only thing that saves me sometimes. But I will love to watch and locally chase this event regardless of what happens IMBY. A nice welcome home after spending a week in St Lucia...haha. Side Note: When will the NWS start using higher resolution polygon warnings? Monroe county is a perfect example for this event. There could be an 20 inch difference between NE to SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally home and actually had a chance to really look at the models. I misunderstood why people thought Monroe and Orleans should be under watches and now agree they should have been, sorry if I seemed like an ass. It's definitely a very nice setup for the Southern shore, upstream connections will really dictate this event when it comes to band placement in Monroe and Orleans. Wayne to Oswego are a slam drunk though. A very juicy system which usually does well for us who need the short fetch. I'm in a very hit or miss location in West Central Monroe, Geo Bay is the only thing that saves me sometimes. But I will love to watch and locally chase this event regardless of what happens IMBY. A nice welcome home after spending a week in St Lucia...haha. Side Note: When will the NWS start using higher resolution polygon warnings? Monroe county is a perfect example for this event. There could be an 20 inch difference between NE to SW. I think I've become jaded on pure lake effect in Monroe. It's been a long time since we've had a really great event that wasn't partially synoptic. AND I actually live on the lake shore! Hopefully, this is the one that comes thru. I remember in the early 2000's, we had 2 or 3 winters that cut the county in half from north to south in regards to snowfall- true LES events. At that time, I had a dialogue with Nizolio from Buf NWS about doing what Erie County does and cutting the county in half for warnings. He said those years were outliers, and now I agree. Northeast Wayne and S Oswego are, as you said, a slam dunk! As is Syracuse- like the last event. I'm surprised NWS has placed their fcst certainty at moderate for Monroe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Another ripoff zone developing?? lol This is only till mon early afternoon but something to keep an eye on.. 2.5k hi rez canadian hrdps_qpf_syracuse_49.png Hi rez Canadian obviously can't be trusted at this range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Rgem by Mon night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You know what I find funny, the simple fact that people think these meso models and these Hi-res models can pick up on the simple nuances and tiny fluctuations within the boundary layer, which ultimately dictate the bands placement and movement. I've been watching, forecasting LE events since being a student at OSU in Oswego and never, not once, has any model hit the placement, intensity and movement exactly as it happens at they are merely tools to use, then determine the outcome. That's why their called forecasts. Know this, the current pattern is ripe for significant LES throughout the lower lakes area the next few days. There will be a large area of 10-20" totals throughout the warning area's and lolli's of 24-30" within these areas, that normally receive more of white stuff, than the rest of us!! Good Luck to all who are in any warnings or advisories as its an awesome set-up for many of us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Perfect example! What happened to the band that was supposed to develop on a WSW flow, off Erie that was being forecasted, shortly after midnight?? I seriously think KROC is in a nice spot for this particular event as there should exist a pretty powerful connection to Huron and GB so its not out of the question to see the South Shore under a pretty strong band, sometime tomorrow. Whether it stays there or moves, is up to the BL winds but we'll see I suppose. My area is in the screw zone, as it was the last event a couple days, ago when 18-24" was forecasted here and we wind up with 9-11". The placement was off by about 20 miles or so to the South, and the same thing can happen again and it probably will but if it did I would not be surprised in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hope it happens! Kroc is due some snow. I stick with my statements, tough scenario for south shore west of Wayne. The fundamentals are great for Sodus to Syracuse region. I'll be happy to eat me hat on this one. Sorry things don't look to pan out for my Buf friends. Ski country looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Side Note: When will the NWS start using higher resolution polygon warnings? Monroe county is a perfect example for this event. There could be an 20 inch difference between NE to SW. They are testing them this year off Lake Ontario... I don't see a link yet on the NWS homepage for the current event... But here is what they look like from the last one... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Like the south trend on models. Monroe in my opinion will have a warning later today. Advisory maybe warning orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 NYZ003-171645- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.160118T1200Z-160120T0000Z/MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER331 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNINGTHROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...* LOCATIONS...MONROE COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THELAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER.* TIMING...FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAYEVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 13 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOSTPERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERYDIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY POORVISIBILITY.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTYWITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OFLAKE EFFECT SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.&& Has definitely taken a shift Southward but there isn't much of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If it drops any further, Oswego will be under advisories and Monroe under Warnings, lol ! It all depends on where the HP to our South moves which will dictate the Southern extent of the band. As far as everything else is concerned, all systems are a go but we also have to remember were still 18- 24hrs away from any real band forming so lots can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 One thing that really gets to me is the inconsistency between the generated output and what they actually say, for instance, the forecasted total map I posted says 4-6" for KROC but in their watch discussion, they say 7-13" which is doubled, No? Actually, from further observation, I notice that the map has a wicked gradient running from actually nothing along the Southern portion of the cty to 18-24" in the upper most NW corner of the County so depending on where you live will dictate your accumulations in Monroe Cty! Goes any further South, the whole County will be under the gun thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 One other quick point, I know its OT, but look at how close we are to a full phase of that Northern Stream disturbance dropping SE and the other traversing the GC and about to make the turn NEward up the coast! Man that's close and that's all I gotta say about that. What a horrible waste of frigid air and a STJ juiced up system!! All because, well not all, but its that disturbance over CO that's screwing things up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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