Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS


dailylurker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run.

The differences were always very small. I don't necsarilly think it only has to do with the hurricane. If for some reason the trough digs more than expected etc you could go back to other solutions. Plus as a cat 4 it has helped build ridging aruound itself so its not necessarily feeling the pull east by the low south of Bermuda. There are a number of legitimate solutions that are not OTS still on the table. I guess we are in an age of modeling it shouldn't go back to a hit but still.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW... Steve DiMartino on Twitter: "As I stated, if Joaquin passed 75W, then this storm track must be adjusted back to the west."

https://mobile.twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/649763187986984960

 

Does he still think DC is going to get 12"+ all snow on 2/14/07?

 

The NAM is like the Nationals, just playing out the season, throwing in a fist fight here or there, not letting you know what is coming next. But like the Nats, they both suck, and they're both done being useful.

 

NAM and Euro are like Papelbon and Harper.  One chokes and the other is the MVP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run.

For a hurricane? I completely disagree that this was the ultimate nail-biter in a lifetime. No Hurricane watch was ever issued, whereas there have been plenty of warnings/watches issued for other hurricanes that didn't verify.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS a tad west so far thru 15

You guys probably think I'm joking but I'm not. Coming west.

 

 

 

For a hurricane? I completely disagree that this was the ultimate nail-biter in a lifetime. No Hurricane watch was ever issued, whereas there have been plenty of warnings/watches issued for other hurricanes that didn't verify. 

Back before we had advanced standards and models. We use the current baseline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a noticeable shift back west overall.. and depending on where it settles hard to say it's the last IMO. Nail biter no, but this storm fits the pattern in a whole lot of ways still. If that weakness was not so pronounced to the east it would likely be a US hit even without a perfect trough. Depending on how fast it does or doesn't break down and how far west it is to start.. still worth watching.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a noticeable shift back west overall.. and depending on where it settles hard to say it's the last IMO. Nail biter no, but this storm fits the pattern in a whole lot of ways still. If that weakness was not so pronounced to the east it would likely be a US hit even without a perfect trough. Depending on how fast it does or doesn't break down and how far west it is to start.. still worth watching.

Way more than worth watching. Look at the phase starting at hr54.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_10.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...