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Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS


dailylurker

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Not operationally, but a bunch of people are working on it in the research community.

It's a pretty difficult statistic to predict, though, as we've seen across the area. Variables range from how the utilities trimmed trees to when was the last weak-tree-clearing event (Derecho for us) to wind direction to soil conditions. Sandy beat Isabel handily at IAD wind-wise and beat Isabel's gusts at DCA, but there was of course nowhere near the level of outages as Isabel. 

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It's a pretty difficult statistic to predict, though, as we've seen across the area. Variables range from how the utilities trimmed trees to when was the last weak-tree-clearing event (Derecho for us) to wind direction to soil conditions. Sandy beat Isabel handily at IAD wind-wise and beat Isabel's gusts at DCA, but there was of course nowhere near the level of outages as Isabel. 

 

I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC during Isabel, where the power lines are underground.  That storm is the *only* time in the ~8 years I lived in that area where my power went out (for approximately 12 hours).  I wonder if the heavy rains shorted something out.

 

Of course, since moving to MoCo, the power goes out with a rustle of leaves!  Well, that's not fair, and that has improved compared to a few years ago when it sure seemed that way!

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It's a pretty difficult statistic to predict, though, as we've seen across the area. Variables range from how the utilities trimmed trees to when was the last weak-tree-clearing event (Derecho for us) to wind direction to soil conditions. Sandy beat Isabel handily at IAD wind-wise and beat Isabel's gusts at DCA, but there was of course nowhere near the level of outages as Isabel. 

 

All of that makes it interesting research.  That's a lot of info to put into a model, but there are certainly ways to come to a reasonable estimate for those things which are hard to get quantifiable measurements on (tree trimming, tree-clearing events, etc.) and definitely ways to get good estimate on soil conditions and the like.

 

It's like trying to model patterns of life.  There are so many different pieces of the puzzle to put together, but a quality product would be incredibly useful, so that's a good reason to put the research in.

 

On topic: Ummm...I hope we don't get too much rain.

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Well...

 

I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. 

It's going to be a pretty impressive meltdown by either to Euro or everything else. Having the UKMET on our side has to help the argument for an E coast impact but Euro is really holding tight here. I would have expected a bigger move towards the E coast camp tbh. Pretty much a model war. 

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I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC during Isabel, where the power lines are underground.  That storm is the *only* time in the ~8 years I lived in that area where my power went out (for approximately 12 hours).  I wonder if the heavy rains shorted something out.

 

Of course, since moving to MoCo, the power goes out with a rustle of leaves!  Well, that's not fair, and that has improved compared to a few years ago when it sure seemed that way!

Potomac flood and debris stopped 50 feet short of my home after Isabel. Neighbors and friends lost everything except clothes on their backs in that storm. My worst power loss here was post derecho.

Went thru a few typhoons in the Philippines last few years. Seeing a poor and developing country get hit is eye opening.

Tropical systems are fascinating and fun to track. I prefer the eastern envelope of solutions to verify. But as others have said it doesn't matter what you root for, it will do what it does. Hope everyone comes thru ok, here and if you have coastal property or other interests in the line of fire.

Really bad timing on top of the recent rainfall.

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It's going to be a pretty impressive meltdown by either to Euro or everything else. Having the UKMET on our side has to help the argument for an E coast impact but Euro is really holding tight here. I would have expected a bigger move towards the E coast camp tbh. Pretty much a model war. 

 

This is pretty cool.  It's hard to discount so much guidance bringing this thing into the East Coast, but the Euro has been a rock with this kicking-out-to-sea scenario for the past...what...four or five runs?  The king v. the plebes...

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This is pretty cool.  It's hard to discount so much guidance bringing this thing into the East Coast, but the Euro has been a rock with this kicking-out-to-sea scenario for the past...what...four or five runs?  The king v. the plebes...

 

Precisely why NHC has taken a consensus of both with their track/cone. Not as far south, and not completely OTS. 

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Hugging the Euro when it's on its own (especially when its on it's own vis-a-vis the UKMET) is generally a bad idea.

After Sandy, its hard to ignore the EC... but then again, after the "Blizzard that wasn't" back in January, its also hard to sign off on it when its by itself.  It may be handling the interaction better than the rest, but its hard to say just yet.  Better to get people thinking about it and start raising alarm bells now, than to wait until the EC jumps on board. 

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Well...

 

I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. 

 

I think we all need to see a couple more 500 mb runs.

If you check out where I placed the solid arrow, the 500 mb flow is blocky in nature.

Ida is way east and not much of an influence.  This is of course contingent on the

GFS having a clue.

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post-714-0-73374400-1443637489_thumb.jpg

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