Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Wow, special advisory to upgrade to 135 kts, just a hair below Cat 5. Incredible.big big surf incoming. Models gagged on intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Jeez, look at Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 A stronger system should help rebuild the ridge to its North and keep it far enough West to spare Bermuda the worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Lol the GGEM, literally almost gets it to 70W before lifting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Bermuda is under the gun. Amazing that tiny spit of land has had a few majors while the east coast can't buy a hit. Surfers delight with big incoming wave action. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Bermuda is under the gun. Amazing that tiny spit of land has had a few majors while the east coast can't buy a hit. Surfers delight with big incoming wave action. Sent from my iPhone I know right, it's been nearly 3 years since our last billions dollar storm. Like this hiatus is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It has been 24 years since Hurricane Bob hit SNE and about 19 years since Hurricane Edouard made a run at us, Edouard made it to category four status north of Hispaniola. I think Bermuda will see a category four hurricane Joaquin in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Astounding euro was so superior.......euro saying the good doctor is ready for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Astounding euro was so superior.......euro saying the good doctor is ready for the upcoming winter. Yeah it was nice to see the ECM school everyone else in a way that it took 48-60 hours for the others to catch on. Hopefully it can be king all winter too. Make it worth paying $20/month for the data, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 big big surf incoming. Models gagged on intensity As did our best Mets here and at NHC, even as recently as 24 hours ago when we were commenting on the structure falling apart. It seems TC's continue to be among the most humbling of meteorology's challenges. They more frequently surprise than the winter storms or summer severe weather outbreaks we track, and our fails with the latter tend to occur because forecasts are made at much higher geographic resolution. One of the reasons the 50% GEFS members / NAM / CMC landfall solutions kept me on edge into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It has been 24 years since Hurricane Bob hit SNE and about 19 years since Hurricane Edouard made a run at us, Edouard made it to category four status north of Hispaniola. I think Bermuda will see a category four hurricane Joaquin in a few days. Well, James, I gave you some guff for the cat 5 call the other day. 155mph sustained is close enough for me. Nice call seeing that high end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Astounding euro was so superior.......euro saying the good doctor is ready for the upcoming winter. You should read the NYTimes article if you haven't already on how much money has been dumped into GFS to try to catch up, but it's still far behind. The data input, the algorithms used, GFS is inferior. Anyone know if any changes have been made to Euro since last winter? Euro - RGEM combo was a killer combo last season, the 1/26/2015 NYC 30" Euro fail being one glaring exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 There's still the GFDL lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Nevermind that was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Jeez, look at Bermuda. Sweating that turn more nne I'd bet otherwise they'll get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Shear and dry air is obviously trying to impinge on the storm but the inner core so far has remained intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I'd love to see it get so far East that it misses getting caught up the Westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I can't believe this things reached a borderline cat 5 at 155pmh. Damn. Over achiever intensity wise. Dud track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I just got back home from the win at New Haven. Would like to just post a reminder about how much the NHC blew during this whole storm. Obvious trends east, I mean furthest west was going to be a scraper and they had a track into NYC at that same point. That's a joke. Now it's about to hit Bermuda. So frustrating listening to the general public whine about how mets busted this one, when even we knew it was heading east. Someone might say "well you were one of the ones who said to wait before declaring it dead"; yeah, It's called due diligence. Making sure things are OTS before declaring the threat dead would be less ignorant than giving the general public a track from the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER directly into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I can't believe this things reached a borderline cat 5 at 155pmh. Damn. Over achiever intensity wise. Dud track wise. Considering the doom and gloom forecasts this spring, it's been a decent hurricane season. Several anomalous storms and a couple vast overperformers in Danny and Joaquin. Obviously lacking in landfalls, but quite a bit more impressive than you'd expect by looking at ENSO and at how active the Pacific has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2015 Author Share Posted October 4, 2015 Considering the doom and gloom forecasts this spring, it's been a decent hurricane season. Several anomalous storms and a couple vast overperformers in Danny and Joaquin. Obviously lacking in landfalls, but quite a bit more impressive than you'd expect by looking at ENSO and at how active the Pacific has been.hot water, should be an interesting fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Interesting cane season? Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Cane season's excitement was at it's peak this week and it was... naht anything cray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Interesting cane season? Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...... From a meteorological perspective, and in light of the abysmal pre-season forecasts, absolutely. Ana was the earliest US landfall ever, Fred was the furthest-east hurricane ever and one of only two systems to directly strike Cape Verde, Joaquin was one of the strongest October systems in recent memory... plus other enigmas like Danny's diminutive size. Like I said, if you're into red meat landfalls, you probably weren't enthralled by this season's antics. If you appreciate modest Atlantic systems for what they are, there was plenty to sink your teeth into. Plus, we had more than our fair share of TC porn from the Pacific basins to lessen the blow of the predictably subdued Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Probably a stupid question? Does the fact that the firehose currently going on in SC/NC where the American models early on had Juaquin making land fall correlate to the before mentioned models honing in on the massive amount of precip they have received? I am just wondering if precipitation modality has a piece in the models output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Man, Bermuda must be having some nasty, squally weather tonight. Passing pretty close to the nw right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 46mph gusting to 64 Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Man, Bermuda must be having some nasty, squally weather tonight. Passing pretty close to the nw right now. Just a close enough pass to make things interesting. I'm envious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 lol @ this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Wow, look at the outflow on this thing as it sails off into the proverbial sunset.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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