OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I will say the transverse banding around the central dense overcast is pretty sweet on satellite right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This website really need a banner with Steve's SOS spotlight to go up everytime flooding is expected. http://www.wpwa.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'll say this, the thread title has grown on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 best part was ray and Kevin schooling all of you once again on huge storms I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Someday we will see well known Mets with balls, backseat drivers and Monday morning qbs dominant the conversation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I will say the transverse banding around the central dense overcast is pretty sweet on satellite right now. Bumpity bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'll say this, the thread title has grown on me.Kevin still doesn't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Bumpity bump. Not routing any airlines over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I see radar and satellite imagery and I see the heaviest rains setting up show further northwest than the coastal plain like the GFS showed, could actually mean the model is too far east with the pattern to begin with up north and this might in turn bring Joaquin into a closer position to New England, especially ACK and CHH. I think the EURO is not the right solution, but it should be closer to the EURO than say the GFDL and HWRF. I would take a track closer to ACK than not. Just my two cents. I think once Joaquin begins to take an northerly track he will catch up with the 0-5 knots of wind shear environment and rapidly intensify once his EWRC is done with. This should preclude a category five hurricane in the Bahamas. I'm confident that we have observed the peak intensity. The vast majority of the time, once the ERC hits, they are "skunked" for the duration of their lives, and never fully recapture their pre ERC vigor. But to have any chance, you must have an absolutely pristine envt, and by 24-36 hours when this is done, it will have already interacted with the mid latitude festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I didn't do that well with this. I was awful with regard to intensity, and as far as track, I should have stuck with my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Kevin still doesn't get it It's too bad the NHC's CT bound track from earlier was never going to happen, he could have been interviewed by Ryan's station and coined the name "the 2015 Tolland Express." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm confident that we have observed the peak intensity. The vast majority of the time, once the ERC hits, they are "skunked" for the duration of their lives, and never fully recapture their pre ERC vigor. But to have any chance, you must have an absolutely pristine envt, and by 24-36 hours when this is done, it will have already interacted with the mid latitude festivities. great observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Am I going to be alive for the next 1938? I'm getting ridiculously impatient. Is a regionwide blowdown really so much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 great observation It will become a bigger boat, though.....no doubt about that. ERCs are great for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I didn't do that well with this. I was awful with regard to intensity, and as far as track, I should have stuck with my gut. This stuff ain't easy. I was destroyed on intensity. I figured Cat 1 maybe. For track I just blindly followed the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 It will become a bigger boat, though.....no doubt about that. ERCs are great for that. seems that typhoons recover canes not so much, probably because of the space in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How much stock do we put into the NAM at 33 hours out? Talk about a significant change from the 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Am I going to be alive for the next 1938? I'm getting ridiculously impatient. Is a regionwide blowdown really so much to ask?some will say we are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It will become a bigger boat, though.....no doubt about that. ERCs are great for that. This will act to increase swell generation and resulting coastal impacts such as washovers. Bill in 08 did a tremendous amount of damage to beaches around here never having come close to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 This will act to increase swell generation and resulting coastal impacts such as washovers. Bill in 08 did a tremendous amount of damage to beaches around here never having come close to landfallJoaquins I K E, 31 is now higher than Rita's, 29 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How much stock do we put into the NAM at 33 hours out? Talk about a significant change from the 18z NAM... none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM picked a good time to seek attention, shifted way west thru 48h, may kiss NC/VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 none The NAM coup is coming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Interesting lack of local chatter about the noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just when I'm done with J comes the NAM to suck me back enough to keep watching I need a life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 lol looks like landfall in SC at 57h on 0z NAM... what a waste of electricity vs. coup of the century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I've sacrificed enough sleep for this magnificent beast, couldn't GAF about what the Nam's showing. I sleep peacefully tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I know the NAM is awful, so maybe some more informed can chime in and help me out...is it typical to have THAT wild of a swing? At 18z it took the system due North, and now it takes it straight into SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah, did NAM initialize/run weird or something? Yes it's the NAM, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I should probably log off Twitter soon before I have a full Joaquin related meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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