JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A coworker just came into my office and asked if we should prepare to not be in the office on Monday because a hurricane is going to hit us head on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I knew you'd like that track. Unfortunately for you there's this at the end of the disco: This is what we're struggling with right now. We know the track is going to shift east, yet we'll continue to show a TC just off ACK at day 5? I'm not sure how exactly we're serving the public there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I love the reference to the NAVGEM. It's like a NYC subforum snowstorm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 A coworker just came into my office and asked if we should prepare to not be in the office on Monday because a hurricane is going to hit us head on. Been dealing with that all day, in fact that Malloy statement I posted was emailed to the entire organization at 3 pm, ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A coworker just came into my office and asked if we should prepare to not be in the office on Monday because a hurricane is going to hit us head on. I hope you said "Yes, absolutely. See you Tuesday.....maybe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I love the reference to the NAVGEM. It's like a NYC subforum snowstorm thread. Doesn't the Navy use that? LOL, this has gotten beyond ridiculous topped off by the Malloy statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Been dealing with that all day, in fact that Malloy statement I posted was emailed to the entire organization at 3 pm, ugh Can't blame them... they're followingt NHC's lead. I was also scolded by an emergency manager today after saying the most likely scenario was a miss on the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I hope you said "Yes, absolutely. See you Tuesday.....maybe" I asked her if she wanted to make a friendly wager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pretty impressive on satellite, especially the last few frames. Pretty uniform wall. "got a real purty mouth" Long Island is going to get pummeled with this latest track! (Long Island, Bahamas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can't blame them... they're followingt NHC's lead. I was also scolded by an emergency manager today after saying the most likely scenario was a miss on the air. The CEO asked me what preparations I was taking, couldn't say none so I said the SOP hurricane preps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prepare for a bloodbath of GFS bashing...that's what you should prepare for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prepare for a bloodbath of GFS bashing...that's what you should prepare for. GFS? You mean the GFSucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS? You mean the GFSucks? 18Z NAM is all in still, day 4 NW track captured under ULL, we need to start from scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prepare for a bloodbath of GFS bashing...that's what you should prepare for.What about every other model? Every single global, ensemble, tropical model all had hits. Only Euro didn't. This was a 98% debacle. Probably the worst in history for any storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What about every other model? Every single global, ensemble, tropical model all had hits. Only Euro didn't. This was a 98% debacle. Probably the worst in history for any storm How much do the tropical models rely on GFS output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18Z NAM is all in still, day 4 NW track captured under ULL, we need to start from scratch Stranger things have happened. But I'm leaning no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prepare for a bloodbath of GFS bashing...that's what you should prepare for. No getting around that it was awful, but this is a huge argument for ensemble based forecasting. At least then you would have had an idea that one, there was huge spread, and two, many of the solutions fell into two camps (out to sea and Mid Atlantic hit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18Z NAM is all in still, day 4 NW track captured under ULL, we need to start from scratch Although, I did notice the NAR was stronger on the NAM. It appears to be a multi-run trend on the GFS as well, weekend maybe not looking as sunny as it once did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No getting around that it was awful, but this is a huge argument for ensemble based forecasting. At least then you would have had an idea that one, there was huge spread, and two, many of the solutions fell into two camps (out to sea and Mid Atlantic hit). I wondered how much that would matter though, when so many models through yesterday aftn, nailed NC. I know discussions mentioned it, but I feel like many are blinded by that consensus of models. Sandy did that too. All models OTS including the tropical ones, at day 4-5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wondered how much that would matter though, when so many models through yesterday aftn, nailed NC. I know discussions mentioned it, but I feel like many are blinded by that consensus of models. Sandy did that too. All models OTS including the tropical ones, at day 4-5 or so. I went back and looked at some of the model runs from Sandy, and day 4 there was definitely consensus for the recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Presented without comment: Justin Michaels @JMichaelsNews 31m 31 minutes agoQuincy, MA New England more impacted by #HurricaneJoaquin than first thought. @NECN will get you through the storm safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wondered how much that would matter though, when so many models through yesterday aftn, nailed NC. I know discussions mentioned it, but I feel like many are blinded by that consensus of models. Sandy did that too. All models OTS including the tropical ones, at day 4-5 or so. It's just not good when you build up all the improvements to the GFS with the Sandy money, but then the Euro goes out and schools it once more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Although, I did notice the NAR was stronger on the NAM. It appears to be a multi-run trend on the GFS as well, weekend maybe not looking as sunny as it once did.Thats how Boxing Day 2010 started. First Nam, then GFS came back.. Then Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Presented without comment: Justin Michaels @JMichaelsNews 31m 31 minutes agoQuincy, MA New England more impacted by #HurricaneJoaquin than first thought. @NECN will get you through the storm safely! What a moron. I responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's just not good when you build up all the improvements to the GFS with the Sandy money, but then the Euro goes out and schools it once more. I know. More people will hug it and hug it too much until another Jan 27 debacle happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What a moron. I responded. Hey, I don't know anything but it seemed irresponsible (at best) to me. I can understand a little hype but to bring SAFETY into it rubbed me the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is way, way east at 18z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No getting around that it was awful, but this is a huge argument for ensemble based forecasting. At least then you would have had an idea that one, there was huge spread, and two, many of the solutions fell into two camps (out to sea and Mid Atlantic hit). With a bimodal distribution of possible solutions... their forecast was the worst possible one in terms of likely outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know. More period will hug it and hug it too much until another Jan 27 debacle happens again. Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model. The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model. The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system. It didn't give NYC's deformation band to ginx? And it was 24 hrs out or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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