Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm reminded of Noel in 2007 by this storm. A home brew that whacked Nantucket and the outer Cape but nowhere else. This may be further OTS than that one, though. 4'-6' seas in Nantucket Harbor with gusts over 100mph. The Stellwagen Bank has a better chance of seeing any effects from this than ACK or anywhere in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin is intensifying according to latest satellite intensity estimates. Raw T# of 6.8. Also it says there is a pinhole eye with Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Meanwhile weenies hanging hopes on GGEM and GFDL which both crush NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ton of damage for a TS, its not just winds that can cause problems. I mean some of the most overall damaging situations besides 38 were ts effects like Diane and Connie in 55. Point being even a weak cane can be loads of trouble in an area that rarely sees them. Not disputing that...just emphasizing what a TC with some actual intensity would do to our region. Irene was weak sauce from a historical perspective. It took a slow and exceptionally favorable track for big surge in LI sound...but other than that, nothing about the storm itself was remotely notable. If we got an intense storm (like an actual hurricane), the impacts (outside the LI sound surge) would be much much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Noel in 2007 brought power outages to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not disputing that...just emphasizing what a TC with some actual intensity would do to our region. Irene was weak sauce from a historical perspective. It took a slow and exceptionally favorable track for big surge in LI sound...but other than that, nothing about the storm itself was remotely notable. If we got an intense storm (like an actual hurricane), the impacts (outside the LI sound surge) would be much much higher. A storm like 1938 would devastate our infrastructure as we know it. The surge would be one thing...but the vast majority of damage would be wind damage . people have no idea how far that would set us back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Noel in 2007 brought power outages to the area. It caused wind damage to my legs as i stood at Chatham Light on the beach clinging to a pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Do we have any NHC mets on the board who could comment on their reasoning with the cone? 66% of all forecasts end up inside the cone, 34% do not so they are showing you that 2/3 times somewhere in that cone you will see a hurricane or TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A storm like 1938 would devastate our infrastructure as we know it. The surge would be one thing...but the vast majority of damage would be wind damage . people have no idea how far that would set us back Even a storm like Bob but push it west maybe 50-75 miles would be pretty awful for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://www.abacoescape.com/PopupWebcam.html There are a few there. Looks like Rocky Bay is starting to get some size on the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not disputing that...just emphasizing what a TC with some actual intensity would do to our region. Irene was weak sauce from a historical perspective. It took a slow and exceptionally favorable track for big surge in LI sound...but other than that, nothing about the storm itself was remotely notable. If we got an intense storm (like an actual hurricane), the impacts (outside the LI sound surge) would be much much higher. A storm like 1938 would devastate our infrastructure as we know it. The surge would be one thing...but the vast majority of damage would be wind damage . people have no idea how far that would set us back yea we would be fooked and anyone wanting that really has no clue what there life would become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even a storm like Bob but push it west maybe 50-75 miles would be pretty awful for most of SNE.Gloria '85 did siggy damage and it was pretty weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not disputing that...just emphasizing what a TC with some actual intensity would do to our region. Irene was weak sauce from a historical perspective. It took a slow and exceptionally favorable track for big surge in LI sound...but other than that, nothing about the storm itself was remotely notable. If we got an intense storm (like an actual hurricane), the impacts (outside the LI sound surge) would be much much higher. Exactly what I was saying, but I was too abrasive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Gloria '85 did siggy damage and it was pretty weak Gloria was nearly a cat 2 moving at break-neck speeds. No comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No worries. Our prism is always IMBY focused. Last winter was an absolute bore for me... I almost wish it didn't happen. Meanwhile, Scott has pictures of his backyard plastered that winter all over his bedroom.Yup. We are all backyard centered. Irene was the single most costly weather disaster in Vermont history. That says something...the storm was number 1 in damage. The 1998 ice storm wasn't even close. But it wasn't in Mass.Likewise there are decades worth of winters that were better than last winter for snowfall in VT, but thats not the case in EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://www.abacoescape.com/PopupWebcam.html There are a few there. Looks like Rocky Bay is starting to get some size on the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 yea we would be fooked and anyone wanting that really has no clue what there life would become. I'm torn on that. I think my area weathered that relatively well.. I mean, there was some structural damage, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I fully admit. I want to live thru a storm like 38. I fully understand how bad things would be, damage and otherwise.. I totally get it..but I would give just about anything to have a storm like that..Not wishing for it or harm to anyone or anything before I get accused of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Stellwagen Bank has a better chance of seeing any effects from this than ACK or anywhere in SNE I think you mean Georges Bank. Stellwagen is north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We live in a forested landscape for a reason, one being they can survive because of the infrequency of severe winds. Not quite understanding the worse than it really is though. Sort of like saying a cake snow storm with 65 mph winds is worse than it really is than a dry powder at 65. The environmental conditions determine the damage scale not some human defined wind scale. It's simple. The foliage increased damage. 50-70 mph winds wouldn't nearly do as much damage with bare trees. I try not to let that cloud my judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think you mean Georges Bank. Stellwagen is north of me. Maybe even the Flemish Cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Maybe even the Flemish Cap Lol. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's simple. The foliage increased damage. 50-70 mph winds wouldn't nearly do as much damage with bare trees. I try not to let that cloud my judgement. Pretty sure we've not had a cane with bare trees but that is pretty much common sense, don't understand what you mean about judgement clouding. There was extensive damage on the cape with 65 mph winds due to cake snow, there is more to impacts than just pure wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Gloria '85 did siggy damage and it was pretty weak Gloria was a real hurricane when it made landfall and had a much larger radius of significant winds than Irene. Irene was a 55 knot TS when it finally came ashore and had a small core left and then a secondary area of decent winds out over Cape Cod...but it was definitely less than Gloria's windfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's simple. The foliage increased damage. 50-70 mph winds wouldn't nearly do as much damage with bare trees. I try not to let that cloud my judgement.in this area the trees simply fell over from the supersaturated ground. ewr's highest gust was 50 something mph on the backside of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I fully admit. I want to live thru a storm like 38. I fully understand how bad things would be, damage and otherwise.. I totally get it..but I would give just about anything to have a storm like that..Not wishing for it or harm to anyone or anything before I get accused of that what do you thing the highest winds you ever experienced were? I am not understanding the thrill, in order to have a 38 there has to be harm, you can't escape the fact. No way to justify wanting a storm but expecting no harm. you can't separate the two. If you want to experience it then you have to accept your wish is at the expense of someone. Not saying there is anything wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Few things are more devestaing than a major Hurricane landfall in a highly populated area. It cannot be overstated how valuable the European model has been with Hurricane Sandy and now Juaquin in helping the public prepare for the worst in Sandy but also avoid an huge and unnecessary panic and large scale evacuation with Juaquin. The Euro is not infallible bur when it comes to complex interactions with tropical cyclones in the northern latitudes with huge decisions and potential lives and property on the line. The Euro is simply the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Report of sustained wind of 111 mph at Church Grove, Bahamas with gusts to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 in this area the trees simply fell over from the supersaturated ground. ewr's highest gust was 50 something mph on the backside of the storm Yeah the ground was already saturated from a ton of rain that month...I think BDL had like 6 and a half inches of rain in the 2-3 weeks prior to Irene....now add whatever rain falls from Irene before the wind gusts...so weaker winds did more damage than otherwise. A lot of places had half decent damage with barely TS force gusts in Irene. So certainly the antecedent conditions leading up to the storm can play a significant role in what the storm's impact will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pretty sure we've not had a cane with bare trees but that is pretty much common sense, don't understand what you mean about judgement clouding. There was extensive damage on the cape with 65 mph winds due to cake snow, there is more to impacts than just pure wind speed. The point is, it's a weak sauce storm. 40 mph winds knock limbs over, so should I be awe struck if a maple fell on my car in a 40mph gust? No. Just a because it knocked trees over with TS force winds shouldn't distract people to what it actually was. A TS. It knocked trees over in a heavily forested area and caused people to lose power thanks to poor location of wires wrapped around boughs of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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