Nittany88 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 True, but I think Tip jinxed us when commented earlier that none of the solutions were affecting New England. Although it may not have initialized with the proper pressure, the 0z run should have the extra data collected by NOAA earlier tonight. Interesting run, I wonder how it will effect the overall NHC track at 5 AM. "The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models, hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Verbatim, certainly. But, if the euro doesn't come west at all at 00z, then I'm definitely in agreement with Ray that this may very well just be the beginning of a cave to the OTS solution.[/quoteAbsolutely agree. If the EURO doesn't come west at all, then this is just the GFS correcting toward the EURO out to sea solution. If the EURO starts creeping west though, then we may be seeing a compromise/adjustment to something further north. Didn't Tip say no guidance had depicted a hit on SNE, well the GFS must have heard him, and answered lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like about the most "thread the needle" result as possible...barely being captured by the skin of its teeth after taking a really wide turn...and the process takes long enough to allow the block to our north to retreat/weaken and allow the storm to gain latitude. As interesting as it would be to get one up here, I'm still thinking it's either south of the Delmarva or wide right. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the EC held serve tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks Bostonseminole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think so...it's like 988-990mb when it finally comes ashore in LI. I doubt it would still have a core of sustained hurricane winds. I think severe flooding would eventually be the main story with that setup verbatim. We've been primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 A slower solution on the European would be not good for us not wanting a gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think severe flooding would eventually be the main story with that setup verbatim. We've been primed. toast coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would be cool to see how a hurricane might make it up to the SNE coastline, but keep the major stuff down south. I think Joaquin will be 120mph at 2am EDT, and could be as strong as 130mph at 5am EDT. I think a peak between 125-135 knots is possible on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 IDK...I still doubt we see an OTS solution...even on this GFS run which is further east, the trough still eventually captures the system and tugs it back east in a big way...then it takes a freaking weird ass track. Unless the ridging in the Atlantic ends up being modeled completely wring it just seems there isn't much room for Joaquin to fully escape to the east. What this scenario does though is allow for very rapid weakening to occur and the impacts really wouldn't be much more than a typical intense fall nor'easter really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm hearing the UK is ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm hearing the UK is ots. I'm looking at the lousy french maps, but it definitely doesn't look OTS to me, looks like it retrogrades into LI but it's hard to tell with the french maps. Edit: Never mind. OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would be cool to see how a hurricane might make it up to the SNE coastline, but keep the major stuff down south. I think Joaquin will be 120mph at 2am EDT, and could be as strong as 130mph at 5am EDT. I think a peak between 125-135 knots is possible on Friday. This solution blows imo. TS....no big deal. I'd rather see the intense NC/SC LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That settles it. EURO wins. Never bet against OTS in October unless it's in the GOM. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I should have stuck with my initial intuition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GEM still with a landfall in NC. HWRF looking that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That settles it. EURO wins. Never bet against OTS in October unless it's in the GOM. Night. Or unless it's October 29, 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I should have gone to bed.....EDT FTL.....Euro here we go..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Summary of 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...23.5n 73.4wabout 35 mi...55 km NE of samana cays Bahamasabout 80 mi...125 km ESE of San Salvador Bahamasmaximum sustained winds...120 mph...195 km/hpresent movement...SW or 220 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/hminimum central pressure...948 mb...27.99 inches Really impressive, 12z HWRF 9/30 was right on in terms of rapid intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z Euro OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro or not (we all remember the rare instances when it is stubbornly and spectacularly wrong), this here I think is the strongest 0z argument for a further east track... 0z GEFS shifted way east (vs. 12z and 18z mean going into Chesapeake): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro tried to bring it back but shift back NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also interestingly re: 0z Euro, it actually does something similar to 0z GFS with a very late almost-capture... track jogs northwest around 108-120 before it continues OTS into obscurity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z Euro ensembles say not even close. Maybe 6 or 7 of the 51 ensemble members show something resembling an east coast hit from looking at the individuals. The mean though is solidly in fish territory. Looking at the "low tracks" it can be deceiving because there's like an appendage of lower pressure stretching towards the coast so although the main storm is like 970mb waaayyyy out there in the Atlantic, the models are sticking another "L" right on the coast but its just like 1001mb or something. If you follow the actual tropical entity it comes absolutely no where near the coast. Man the ECMWF is still the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the Euro could be well on its way to embarrassing the sh*T out of almost all the models. It looks locked and loaded, very hard to bet against it now, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the Euro could be well on its way to embarrassing the sh*T out of almost all the models. It looks locked and loaded, very hard to bet against it now, lol the one time I wanted that model to be right in January 2015 it couldn't find its way out of a paper bag. Other than that, it generally embarrasses the competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It was over yesterday at 12z. 00z models did exactly what we thought . Massive shift east. No reason to track this anymore for anyone on the EC unless you are a surfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, it looks like we will know for sure which set of models is going to win by sometime late Thursday/Friday if they continue to stay split. The GFS has Joaquim already making the turn n/nw on early on Friday, while the Euro keeps it relatively stalled down in the Bahamas through Friday evening, and by Saturday it's moving NE ots. The longer the storm stays south, the more likely the ots scenario occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 image.gif Going to be interesting when they have to change that wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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