Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 First evening recon pass: 125 kt winds and extrapolated pressure of 931mb. Realtime data at http://t.co/jTdPDeAqhjhttp://t.co/rF0Xm61OO3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If this thing comes up the eastern seaboard, we are talking devastation. Sandy could be dethroned. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A With all due respect, I feel this is an ignorant comment. Completely different setup. First and foremost (and probably all that needs to be said) is that Sandy merged with another strong LP system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are people rooting for this to change path....seems in poor taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are people rooting for this to change path....seems in poor taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are people rooting for this to change path....seems in poor taste I think people want a definitive answer. It's the thrill of the chase in the meantime. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are people rooting for this to change path....seems in poor taste Says the guy who roots for heat. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With all due respect, I feel this is an ignorant comment. Completely different setup. First and foremost (and probably all that needs to be said) is that Sandy merged with another strong LP system. This has more in common with Irene then Sandy. And 931 while low is not cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think people want a definitive answer. It's the thrill of the chase in the meantime. Sent from my iPad This board is for weather enthusiasts. Extreme weather will always be cheered on by the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With all due respect, I feel this is an ignorant comment. Completely different setup. First and foremost (and probably all that needs to be said) is that Sandy merged with another strong LP system.No offense taken. I should clarify. I'm not talking about the statistical and meteorological anomaly. What I mean was the potential for formidable to extreme damage along a wide swath, and the element of being caught by surprise potentially. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 18z GEFS keeps things interesting fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina. Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands Not quite. A bad storm, but Katrina was a 175mph 902mb beast. A ways to go yet to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 18z GEFS keeps things interesting fwiw. Some members take a NW hook correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not quite. A bad storm, but Katrina was a 175mph 902mb beast. A ways to go yet to get there.I meant in terms of Saffir-Simpson. I should have clarified. Dont think this will touch that pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 URNT12 KNHC 012343VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015A. 01/23:12:40ZB. 22 deg 51 min N074 deg 25 min WC. 700 mb 2523 mD. 116 ktE. 258 deg 16 nmF. 341 deg 123 ktG. 256 deg 18 nmH. 932 mbI. 10 C / 3045 mJ. 19 C / 3047 mK. 6 C / NAL. CLOSEDM. C12N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 2 nmP. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 06MAX FL WIND 123 KT 256 / 18 NM 23:06:30ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KTMAX FL TEMP 19 C 062 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some members take a NW hook correct? Here. Have at it. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 URNT12 KNHC 012343 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015 A. 01/23:12:40Z B. 22 deg 51 min N 074 deg 25 min W C. 700 mb 2523 m D. 116 kt E. 258 deg 16 nm F. 341 deg 123 kt G. 256 deg 18 nm H. 932 mb I. 10 C / 3045 m J. 19 C / 3047 m K. 6 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C12 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 06 MAX FL WIND 123 KT 256 / 18 NM 23:06:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT MAX FL TEMP 19 C 062 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR 932. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at the RaleighWx's GEFS individ members, I count 8 of the 20 make LF in the NC to Ocean City vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Honestly, everyone along the east coast (FL to NY) still needs to be watching this. With so many ups and downs with the models this season, I'm not ready to call ANY solution yet, especially with this storm still another 24-36 hours off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Some models starting to change their tune. It aint over till the fat lady... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsHeatMiser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not quite. A bad storm, but Katrina was a 175mph 902mb beast. A ways to go yet to get there. I was going to defend Ralph here if he was referring g to surge. Katrina was a weakening 3 at landfall but the surge remained a cat 5 or very close to it, slamming into a (in)famously low lying area. Sandy's surge was incredible in parts due the the New York bight as well as the sheer size of the storm. Intensity? I have to agree this would have a way to go to get to Katrina levels. The only model I hug is the SLOSH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just when I thought I was out, it pulls me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Boy South Carolina it's going to get their asses handed to them with heavy rain anywhere from 12 to 15 inches plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Significant shift east by the 0z hurricane models. Very few now show a turn towards the United States. Looks as if this is about over. What a job by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Significant shift east by the 0z hurricane models. Very few now show a turn towards the United States. Looks as if this is about over. What a job by the Euro.uh...0z models have yet to come out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Where r u getting 0z hurr models this early? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 He's right, about 5 members go towards the coast. On mobile so can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 He's right, about 5 members go towards the coast. On mobile so can't post. OUTCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 OUTCH Anything ending with I is just an 18z run interpolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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