Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Big rains for our area are toast on the NAM-we struggle to get .50 Big high in SE Canada pressing down with dry air.... S NJ does well with a couple inches, but sharp gradient. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It does, late capture. 84 hr 18z NAM has it moving NW, but not near land yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You guys are so much smarter then the NHC. I mean all those idiots with big degrees. Why anyone would listen to them!!! We do not need a direct hit for this to do tremendous coastal damage You are right about doing damage from a coastal beach erosion/flooding issue even if OTS but in reality if you look back the trends were there to see at least 36 hours ago. The issue being some people refusing to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does any model put this storm passed 75 west and if not what are the effects of this outcome?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 To my understanding, they are not much different in altitude than the geosynchronous orbital satellites. So I would expect it to be negligible. Geo's orbit at at 35-36K kilometers. Polar orbits are 700-800Km. There is very little difference as you stated in the heights of the Sats we reference. A very cool site for those interested. http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov/predict/ Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 While you are correct Ufasuperstorm, Joaquin is coming back NW in that final frame at 84... so it would APPEAR that the NC to NJ area would need to watch closely... but yes its the 18z NAM... so yeah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 To my understanding, they are not much different in altitude than the geosynchronous orbital satellites. So I would expect it to be negligible. Geo's orbit at at 35-36K kilometers. Polar orbits are 700-800Km. There is very little difference as you stated in the heights of the Sats we reference. A very cool site for those interested. http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov/predict/ Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Awesome link, thanks Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 5pm NHC track now shifted east of the 2pm not that anyone expected anything different!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And GFS is OTS again. Someone would have posted if it hit the EC. Now 3 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS 18z now misses even Canadian Maritimes as it quickly exits stage right into North Atlantic next week. http://t.co/23khQbIB9U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM shifted west again, GFS East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM shifted west again, GFS East. Well, it is the NAM after all. By Saturday, it'll have the storm in the UK. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I actually think we're still pretty far from the final outcome given how far West Jaoquin continues to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I actually think we're still pretty far from the final outcome given how far West Jaoquin continues to move. Just like how all the models never had this storm strengthening this fast, this strong. I also believe we are far from a solution, one thing could shift the whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does anybody have a link of longitude and latitude of the Hurricane in motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is definitely just wobbling or drifting very slowly over the past several hours. And still appears to be strengthening slightly based on the CDO feature on satellite. Eye has definitely tightened. The Bahamas are getting absolutely destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 18z GEFS mean is wetter. I bet a lot of the members bring the ULL through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is definitely just wobbling or drifting very slowly over the past several hours. And still appears to be strengthening slightly based on the CDO feature on satellite. Eye has definitely tightened. The Bahamas are getting absolutely destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Was just going to post regarding the gefs. Interesting. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Was just going to post regarding the gefs. Interesting. Sent from my LG-V410 Probably just noise. Imagine if the GGEM scored one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It would be funny in a very sinical way if it went right into Florida Here's a good question for you, what's stopping it from just going West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here's a good question for you, what's stopping it from just going West?The same trough that should be tugging it North. If the trough doesn't dig as much and Joaquin can get far enough South it could theoretically miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Did anyone else hear that joaquin may be a cat 5 per latest recon flight? Preliminary report coming out. Cant say i would be surprised. But just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Did anyone else hear that joaquin may be a cat 5 per latest recon flight? Preliminary report coming out. Cant say i would be surprised. But just wow! Truly incredible storm. fun to track, but thank goodness it appears OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina. Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The same trough that should be tugging it North. If the trough doesn't dig as much and Joaquin can get far enough South it could theoretically miss. Oh okay. Seems like a lot of variables to take into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina. Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina. Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands ...or any number of other high-end Category 4s in the Atlantic. But "another Igor!" wouldn't be nearly as dramatic, would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina. Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ryan Maue per twitter saying Cat 5. Ugh Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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