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9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-MODELS


Rjay

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Very typical EURO stays the course & others jump towards it. Then EURO may head slightly west and boom final outcome. Now this is tropical season so we're still a long way out, but i'm not excited at all. What I am excited about though is that this is the first 00z EURO run I've stayed up for....WINTER IS COMING

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Very typical EURO stays the course & others jump towards it. Then EURO may head slightly west and boom final outcome. Now this is tropical season so we're still a long way out, but i'm not excited at all. What I am excited about though is that this is the first 00z EURO run I've stayed up for....WINTER IS COMING

 

I'd still be careful taking Euro verbatim for this setup is unique. There are a lot of moving parts at play here, and as mentioned before, we're still 48 hours outside the Euro's "deadly range". Of course, the Euro can 100% verify and no one here would be shocked. 

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Very typical EURO stays the course & others jump towards it. Then EURO may head slightly west and boom final outcome. Now this is tropical season so we're still a long way out, but i'm not excited at all. What I am excited about though is that this is the first 00z EURO run I've stayed up for....WINTER IS COMING

It was starting to suggest what other solutions have except it was way too late and too east for it to do enough.

I hope we'll know more by tomorrow and Friday. Joaquin SW movement is also throwing a monkey wrench into the entire process.

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Hearing from a couple pro mets that the last few Euro runs were missing a bunch of data from the Pacific as well as West Coast. Not clear what impact, if any, this would have.

Can anyone confirm?

Sent from my LG-V410

I know it has some weird phantom energy over the Canadian maritime.

 

Gfs

gfs_z500_mslp_atl_13.png

 

Euro

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_4.png

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I would still like to see another model run or two before calling this threat completely dead, but it is certainly on life support.

 

The Euro would have to shift west between now and Friday 12z to make that happen since it's

the leader which the other models have shifted to. I never stop watching a tropical cyclone

until it actually is confirmed that it's heading away from the coast. Once the acceleration north

and northeast starts on Friday, we should be nearly certain of the final outcome.

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The Euro would have to shift west between now and Friday 12z to make that happen since it's

the leader which the other models have shifted to. I never stop watching a tropical cyclone

until it actually is confirmed that it's heading away from the coast. Once the acceleration north

and northeast starts on Friday, we should be nearly certain of the final outcome.

 

Agreed, still a very delicate setup with alot of moving parts, wise not to completely let our guard down just yet.

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Both the 0z UKMET and the 6z GFS broke to what the Euro had been showing all along.

This is what usually happens when the Euro locks onto a solution and doesn't wavier.

It's amazing.   When the Euro didn't flip at 12z yesterday, I had a feeling that the other models would start to move to its solution.  Not over yet, but looks like Euro has the right idea.  When the storm went much further SW (and delayed a move north), plus the monster intensity of the storm everything changed.

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Joaquin is drifting and is modeled to continue to do so on the GFS and ECMWF. That gives time for the ridge to move sufficiently far off eastern Canada to allow a weakness between ridges to become available to allow it to avoid landfall.

 

It is separated/cut off from the flow  , it is alone waiting for a hook up. 

Don ,  it is amazing that this would be pulled out by the weaker trough to the east  like the ( Euro UKIE GFS ) 

now all see .

It would be an amazing win for the Euro . And DT ( cough , cough ) .

 

The stronger NEG tilted trough coming into the SE misses this on the guidance and just can`t tug it west fast enough before the tug east . 

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