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Hurricane Joaquin 2015


Solak

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Yall dont need to be rooting for this one. Everyone here is smart enough to know from prior experience the amount of tree damage, power outages and misery that can come with a storm like this. And on a larger scale the flooding we had across the flats of north carolina (rocky mt, plymouth, etc) and river basins. Lord knows we all asked for rain and we got it. But this is a whole different ballgame.

Do we have results from the latest hunter yet? Just catching up on threads.

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My entire family is at the beach in Garden City, SC through Saturday. Just now checking in. OMG?? Do we need to bug out? Precip looks north on other weather sites. No warnings on weatherbug etc. I totally know you guys are amazing and local weather lags behind. Will tune in to weather channel in the morning... Holy cow!

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My entire family is at the beach in Garden City, SC through Saturday. Just now checking in. OMG?? Do we need to bug out? Precip looks north on other weather sites. No warnings on weatherbug etc. I totally know you guys are amazing and local weather lags behind. Will tune in to weather channel in the morning... Holy cow!

 

Nobody has a clue yet.  Much too early to know.  Keep tuned to the boards man. Lots of moving parts involved.  We do know that someone is going to get lots of rain somewhere though.  Regardless if the storm actually makes a landfall or not.

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I've watched you forecast enough on the winter events to trust your thoughts.  For those of us in central NC (a lot of us on this thread), what's the upper ceiling on this?  Fran?  Or what Hugo did to Charlotte.

 

Apologize for the IMBY nature of it, but if this thing is rapidly strengthening and looking to hook west over us; I want to get my preparations done before the mass rush hits the hardware/grocery stores...

Thx man. Depends on the amt of strengthening we see over the next 2 days and whether this is a VA or NC hit. That said the gfs solution maakes sense. The cane has no where to go but west after 72 hours. As far as rain, i think thats already a given.

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Brad is getting bit frustrated by all the argument of whether it will be a hurricane or transitioning system at landfall.

 

WX communication needs to keep a focus on impacts. People want to know if they are going to get hit by a car, don't care what kind of car.

 

Brad is 100% right.  There will be major impacts even if the system doesn't make an official landfall!  Historic rainfall first, wind and surge later.  I personally think the Weather Channel naming random storms has some to do with the public questions about the names/extratropical etc... maybe it was Sandy?  Who knows.

 

I do know the 18z GFS was trending on Twitter earlier... I have my trends set to the USA and not tailored to my interests.  It was asked on the Weather Channel by a Twitter user (they answered) what they thought of the 18z GFS.

 

I think the over-exposure of weather maps (false hurricane/snow/whatever) maps are causing the public to think they are all knowing and weather geeks these days.  Not that many of us (including me) don't do the same.. but as a general public.. it's getting a bit ridiculous.

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GFDL is much further SW and is actually pretty much in line with the GFS bringing the center in right over the VA/NC border...it also has it at 945 MB and 110knts this would damage/destroy the OBX north of Hatteras to a level they have never seen at least in living memory....the next fame has it as a 75 mph cane sitting right over Richmond.....

 

The real take away today though is the SW trend has been strong and may not be over, one thing the models have done is they take the storm SW to almost the Bahamas and then unlike yesterday they move it more north with far less NE motion until the door gets slammed. A few more SW jogs like that and its coming in Lookout and sitting over Raleigh by the next frame......

 

HWRF is even further south with landfall just north of Hatteras and is sitting over Columbia at 946 MB then the next frame has it over  Roanoke Rapids

 

keep in mind these two models by themselves are terrible but when they start to agree with the globals you got raise a eyebrow.....

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When does the euro srart it's run and any pbp?

 

Euro looks to most likely not be anything like the other modeling... so far.. at least.  Probably like it's past operational run.

 

Keep in mind some of the GEFS data showed away from the USA solutions too.... so gotta give the Euro a bit of credit of being right because of that.

 

Anyways, Euro moved slightly West so it is a step to the other models showing landfall in the USA.  Wait and see game.

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Euro looks to most likely not be anything like the other modeling... so far.. at least.  Probably like it's past operational run.

 

Keep in mind some of the GEFS data showed away from the USA solutions too.... so gotta give the Euro a bit of credit of being right because of that.

 

Anyways, Euro moved slightly West so it is a step to the other models showing landfall in the USA.  Wait and see game.

That's good at least because if it comes in line with the GFS going to be rainageddon.

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That's good at least because if it comes in line with the GFS going to be rainageddon.

 

Well, someone else mentioned that some ensembles still are half-way going OTS basically.. which leads the Euro solution to seem viable.  If I had to bet my life savings on the this whole thing, I would go with the Euro just because it's such a freakin' good model when all is said and done!  It gets a lot of hate for specific things.. but this time it's sticking to it's guns as said above.. and it can not be ignored.

 

Lets see what happens at 12z.

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