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Drought busting rains PRE event


dailylurker

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I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't care all that much about the frontal stuff. I want a tropical (or post tropical) deluge.

I feel the same way. These little. 25" events aren't putting a dent in this drought. I want to see fun weather (wind, rain, mass distruction). TWC is really hyping the weekend thing for the NE. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tuesday stuff goes west and the tropical stuff goes north. We get a shower from the front lol. Let's hope that's not the case.
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I feel the same way. These little. 25" events aren't putting a dent in this drought. I want to see fun weather (wind, rain, mass distruction). TWC is really hyping the weekend thing for the NE. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tuesday stuff goes west and the tropical stuff goes north. We get a shower from the front lol. Let's hope that's not the case.

Works for me, I'll be in OCMD, if I can get a dry Saturday night I'll be happy.
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We've seen the shear in the tropics linger with each cyclone this year and play havoc with the numerical models, both foreign and domestic. There's no reason to believe it will be different with TD #11 and the HWRF is silly to begin with which is the only model that paints anything remotely interesting. This looks like another Irene which, as we all know, was a dead ratter.

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We've seen the shear in the tropics linger with each cyclone this year and play havoc with the numerical models, both foreign and domestic. There's no reason to believe it will be different with TD #11 and the HWRF is silly to begin with which is the only model that paints anything remotely interesting. This looks like another Irene which, as we all know, was a dead ratter.

 

Um, EURO?

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TBH- I'm pretty interested in the setup/evolution. Timing is critical but it's not like we're 10 days out here. Euro and gfs close off h5 in the TN valley general area. This is key. A progressive trough won't let anything offshore join the party for our region.

If in fact h5 does close off and the block to the north does its job then things can get really interesting. Euro was obviously the far extreme scenario but something more realistic could still be plenty fun from a met perspective. Euro ens were quite wet. A couple inches of rain with 30mph gusts would make all of our days if things pull together.

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We've seen the shear in the tropics linger with each cyclone this year and play havoc with the numerical models, both foreign and domestic. There's no reason to believe it will be different with TD #11 and the HWRF is silly to begin with which is the only model that paints anything remotely interesting. This looks like another Irene which, as we all know, was a dead ratter.

Power out for 3-4 days with winds higher than Sandy. Did it suck in the DC area?

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Hmmm

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
403 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-291015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
403 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING FOR
SOME AREAS.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...PRONOUNCED WAH-KEEN...LATER TODAY. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE DETAILS OF HOW SIGNIFICANTLY...AND EVEN
IF...THAT STORM WILL IMPACT US WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. IF IT DOES IMPACT US...A PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS MOST LIKELY. BE AWARE THAT TROPICAL STORM
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR US.

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One interesting thing is there's definitely a n/s axis to most mid-atlantic hurricane hits that looks similar to the track of NHC if it was to be shifted west to go thru like Myrtle/Hat.. which is possible in the end I think here.. though I have a hard time seeing how the storm will be mega intense other than ssts are quite warm if it manages to develop well.

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Nice posts Ian. I'm pretty intrigued because there is more than a gutshot chance at having the upper level trough close off at the right time to back steering flow east enough to tuck the storm into our region without first coming inland over NC. Obviously not high prob or likely but having the chance hanging out there is fun for sure.

Cat 3 right into the mouth of the bay...lol

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   yeah, tomorrow evening into the night is such a tricky call.    RGEM is obviously wet, GFS has the heaviest to our north but still gets some decent rain into the local area, NAM is fairly dry, SREF is wet, and NAM nest implies a few heavy convective swaths.    Consensus seems to argue for decent convection in the area during that time, especially for areas north of Rt 50.

 

    what *may* be happening with the NAM to cause the drier solution is that the convective scheme triggers too early Tuesday (a common bias) and messes things up for later in the day.

 

00z RGEM 24 hr QPF over 2" at DCA and still pouring

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   brutal indeed.   looking at 500 mb, the 00z GFS is still more progressive with the big trough, and there is no way for Joaquin to get pulled back into the coast.   The 00z NAM at f84 is much further west, and Joaquin seems to be starting to move back to the northwest, and a big swath of rain is arriving here from the east.

 

 

Brutal

 

YAs2PPZ.png

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   brutal indeed.   looking at 500 mb, the 00z GFS is still more progressive with the big trough, and there is no way for Joaquin to get pulled back into the coast.   The 00z NAM at f84 is much further west, and Joaquin seems to be starting to move back to the northwest, and a big swath of rain is arriving here from the east.

the gfs has  been exhibiting a weak and north bias all season from what I understand. it does seem to be moving left slowly. I think the short term trend with the low will probably end up west. i just don't know if this is the right season to get it big enough to be more than a big rain maker.. which would be fine at this juncture of course. plus that trough means business so it's not likely to be fully tropical.. very few are by this latitude I guess.

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I think the GGEM is about to do something silly. What else is new.

It looks to get what's left of Ida involved?

lol yeah pulls Ida in and eventually clips cape cod after trying to head toward northern mid atlantic

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