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Drought busting rains PRE event


dailylurker

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 yeah, that idea is certainly on the table too.   I see that there are severe t-storm warnings up now in southeast PA near the back edge of the heavy rain there (close to the pseudo-comma head), so I'm guessing that something similar is happening up there.

 

 

Might be wake low or something. There was some spin to that activity and a very sharp cutoff. Strong pressure gradient possible somewhere in there.

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this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours.

Good winds for me too but earlier since I am in VA. Near the end I started worrying about what was happening. Lightning and very gusty. I am in Purcellville. You can do the long loop and see some spin on the radar band

It was windy on the edge. Kind of cool though

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this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours.

I was watching radar at the time and I do think there might have been a weak tornado that formed just northwest of Laural and moved NNW about 5-7 miles. There was a weak couplet with that storm at the time.
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I think those are pretty much the only solutions at this point.. either into NC/VA or a more Euroesque look which is the east one.  Given the current state of the storm and the apparent setup it's still pretty hard not to favor the west play. At this point it's also harder to totally ignore that the HWRF keeps targeting the same general are the early global ops are. 

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So sounds like a bit west and stronger, but no dice on landfall.

If I have this correctly, that puts all the major globals and spaghetti models except for a few ens and op euro on the side of an east coast impact. I know which side I'm on...

Yeah, but we all know how many times the EURO has differed on east coast winter storms only to be correct, and there were more ens members east 0z than 18z
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Would bet that Euro is wrong but the possibility of a coastal track that jogs northeast instead of into the Mid Atlantic might be credible on balance of all guidance (which would still be a significant storm but no disaster in this subforum, possibly not in Long Island either if it stays south of Montauk Point in that scenario.)

 

However, would say the Mid-Atlantic landfall is the leading option at maybe 50% now, the Long Island or out to sea options more like 30% and 10% chances. Another 10% should be assigned to outcomes where the storm only lasts 2-3 days or moves inland in the Carolinas or Georgia.

 

And within that 50% envelope, risk of the storm intensity being cat-2 or higher is probably 50-50 if not higher so that gives a cumulative probability of 25% to 40% for a major impact storm in this region.

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