mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Agnes definitely is the benchmark for rainfall in these parts. Wish I was old enough to have seen it. I remember hearing that Ellicott city washed away during Agnes.I remember it well, but where I lived in Glen Burnie at the time had no problems. But every little stream turned into a raging river so every road that had even the smallest water under or beside it flooded and closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Any warm spot in IR images is probably just tropopause-penetrating convection. A GPM overpass (satellite radar) didn't have any bands wrapping around the west side at 2140Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's hard to tell, but water vapor looks like it's moving due west. Ian mentioned passing 75w.....it may be there by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh Oh, DRY AIR No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Agnes definitely is the benchmark for rainfall in these parts. Wish I was old enough to have seen it. I remember hearing that Ellicott city washed away during Agnes. Damn near washed away. Downtown area was underwater two stories tall if memory serves me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Any warm spot in IR images is probably just tropopause-penetrating convection. A GPM overpass (satellite radar) didn't have any bands wrapping around the west side at 2140Z: Yea, it's not stacked also. Still very disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yea, it's not stacked also. Still very disorganized. Ya a likely hurricane at 11pm is disorganized, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not all updated but clear cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yea, it's not stacked also. Still very disorganized. Be careful using GPM to proclaim this very disorganized. Based on that image, the intense band is clearly lined up with the east side of the low level vortex. The MLC may still be somewhat tilted to the SSE, but if you overlay this image with IR, you see the LLC and MLC is very close to being aligned. Again, it's not perfect, but the shear is not completely gone either. This storm is definitely getting its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Up to 2.27" and a flash flood warning was just issued. It is absolutely pouring. Buses tomorrow around Frederick will be late for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not all updated but clear coneWould these models have the new sfc ob info from 0z? If so then they are becoming more tightly coupled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 These models are really beginning to look like this may be a possibility. Still a long ways off, but if model alignment continues overnight and tomorrow, we may see something dramatic unfold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like we won't be seeing the NAM runs for a lil while NOUS42 KWNO 292256ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD2256Z TUE SEP 29 201518Z NAM UPDATE...THE 18Z NAM FORECAST HAS PROGRESSED...GENERATING PRODUCTS OUT TOT+57 BEFORE FAILING AGAIN. OUR TECH SUPPORT, ALONG WITH THEMODEL DEVELOPER, BELIEVES THE ISSUE IS DUE TO HOW THE MODEL ISHANDLING WATER TEMPERATURE NEAR TS JOAQUIN. THEY ARE CONTINUINGTO WORK TOWARDS A RESOLUTION ON THIS ISSUE. WE WILL KEEP YOUPOSTED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE. READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah but out of all 12z model runs it looks like Euro was closest to the current position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Poor NAM... It broke itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 78/76 at Hatteras 8pm Ughhhhhh Misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Misery close to that here too @74 *9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 21z SREF mean at hr 81 has landfall near OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Check out the rotation west of BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Poor NAM... It broke itself.It was broken well before 18z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Check out the rotation west of BWI Frederick is getting destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Check out the rotation west of BWISeen well herehttp://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Frederick is getting destroyed. You have that right. It has gotten crazy over here. The rain is so loud, lightning and wind. My station is currently at 4.64" of rain and it is still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You have that right. It has gotten crazy over here. The rain is so loud, lightning and wind. My station is currently at 4.64" of rain and it is still coming down.Youzers. God speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You have that right. It has gotten crazy over here. The rain is so loud, lightning and wind. My station is currently at 4.64" of rain and it is still coming down. Wow, I thought we were at like 3. 20 minutes to go and 5" is almost a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It was broken well before 18z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Youzers. God speed. Over 5" now. Actually 5.15". A lot of lightning waiting for the backside to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 FDK just gusted to 40 mph and had a nice wind shift to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And it's done for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And it's done for today. Yes glad to hear the rain has slowed down. Currently at 5.70". Flooding will be bad here. School bus routes should be interesting tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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