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We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30


Ginx snewx

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SREFs had the highest QPF probabilities right over the spine of the terrain. Not so sure that's how it plays out.

 

I'm not overly enthused about that idea panning out...there will def be a stripe of large totals where the frontal boundary is quasi-stationary, but it's looking more and more like there could be some huge totals along the nose of the southerly moisture plume....but I guess we'll just have to see how it evolves overnight. Convection will make it difficult on guidance obviously.

 

Sept29_2015_940pm_Radar.gif

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I'm not overly enthused about that idea panning out...there will def be a stripe of large totals where the frontal boundary is quasi-stationary, but it's looking more and more like there could be some huge totals along the nose of the southerly moisture plume.

 

Sept29_2015_940pm_Radar.gif

This happened twice already. Models overdid frontogenic forcing near front and underplayed the area with high theta-e octane. This seems to be a warm season theme where convection screws around with model QPF distribution.

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I'm not overly enthused about that idea panning out...there will def be a stripe of large totals where the frontal boundary is quasi-stationary, but it's looking more and more like there could be some huge totals along the nose of the southerly moisture plume....but I guess we'll just have to see how it evolves overnight. Convection will make it difficult on guidance obviously.

 

Check out the NAM anomalies, throws a 5 sigma southerly LLJ into the coast mid morning tomorrow.

 

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This happened twice already. Models overdid frontogenic forcing near front and underplayed the area with high theta-e octane. This seems to be a warm season theme where convection screws around with model QPF distribution.

Not sure I'm following but i think you're telling ginx to put on his rubbers.

Pretty me here so far. Still less than .2. Should be wet when I head for Boston at 4:45.

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The convection may steal the show...still have to see how it evolves overnight, but it's happening down int he mid-atlantic. I do really like the tropical connection going all the way to the tropics...literally. The convection south of LI is probably just the beginning. That will probably go nuts as this thing moves NE later tonight.

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The convection may steal the show...still have to see how it evolves overnight, but it's happening down int he mid-atlantic. I do really like the tropical connection going all the way to the tropics...literally. The convection south of LI is probably just the beginning. That will probably go nuts as this thing moves NE later tonight.

I've been trying to decipher the movement of the batch which is undoubtedly NE.. But where exactly is the question. The coolest cloud tops and most impressive wv imagery honestly seems to be heading right for SNE.

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