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We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30


Ginx snewx

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The tropical models sort of give me pause for quick OTS euro solution. They are usually something to watch when systems keep tropical characteristics which this should do. I think right now, you can't make a call with high confidence either way. I am not talking about HWRF etc...I mean the suite of guidance. 

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The tropical models sort of give me pause for quick OTS euro solution. They are usually something to watch when systems keep tropical characteristics which this should do. I think right now, you can't make a call with high confidence either way. I am not talking about HWRF etc...I mean the suite of guidance. 

 

You really can't lock in any one scenario with Joaquin at this point. GEM supports the HWRF, GFS supports the Euro. Ensembles support everything else in between.

 

It's funny to see the NHC shift the track west early in the cone and east late.

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You really can't lock in any one scenario with Joaquin at this point. GEM supports the HWRF, GFS supports the Euro. Ensembles support everything else in between.

 

It's funny to see the NHC shift the track west early in the cone and east late.

 

Yeah I think the NHC is clueless as well...and I can't totally fault them. 

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Just part of the gumbo pot of solutions. You can see what it does. Perfectly separate entity moves SW than turns north and follows H5-H3 pipeline into MA.

 

What a difference a day makes. The GFS doesn't dig as deep into the Bahamas and starts tickling north between 48 and 60 hours, the Euro makes landfall in the Bahamas and doesn't start moving north until around 72-84 hours.

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What a difference a day makes. The GFS doesn't dig as deep into the Bahamas and starts tickling north between 48 and 60 hours, the Euro makes landfall in the Bahamas and doesn't start moving north until around 72-84 hours.

If it gets act together, they sometimes don't like to go south in mid latitudes. Will be interesting.

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