USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Then that would be a disaster for the weather worldNot just the weather world. If all models begin to show ots only to snap back with a category 4/5 hurricane barreling up the EC, that would be exceedingly dangerous. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not just the weather world. If all models begin to show ots only to snap back with a category 4/5 hurricane barreling up the EC, that would be exceedingly dangerous. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A That would be something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That would be something I was down in Tampa when Hurricane Charlie was forecast to hit (my family is down south in Sanibel/Cape Coral) That was similar, they were expecting it to just pass by on it's way up the coast as a Cat 1-2, then all of a sudden at 2pm it was a Cat4 and made that sharp turn into Punta Gorda/Pt. Charlotte. That was crazy. They had about an hour to find shelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am starting to get a bit nervous... does Joaquin have a pending 3rd act? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I am starting to get a bit nervous... does Joaquin have a pending 3rd act? I really hope not, seeing that due to the senseless tragedy in Oregon, Joaquin has in one day become an afterthought to most Americans. Fortunately, Joaquin looks to be moving away, but in the case that it doesn't we aren't going to want to be like "Oh my god, we've been so focused on Oregon that we forgot about Joaquin!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 18z runs can occasionally do some whacky things. I'd wait for 00z to see if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 At this point. Watch the water vapor. Look for trough interaction. Models are secondary at this point, because we know the two scenarios. The margin between trough interaction and not is unbelievably thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was just on the NJ news website. NJ.com they have links for news stories to gas stations with generators, NJ state of emergency , how this storm is a true test for state. this is a big deal apparently for a fire drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was just on the NJ news website. NJ.com they have links for news stories to gas stations with generators, NJ state of emergency , how this storm is a true test for state. this is a big deal apparently for a fire drill. People still have Sandy in their minds. My buddy Alan put all his furniture on risers last night. Calm down Alan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 People still have Sandy in their minds. My buddy Alan put all his furniture on risers last night. Calm down Alan. They still have a total QPF precip map showing 10-12 inches of rain as the lead on the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was just on the NJ news website. NJ.com they have links for news stories to gas stations with generators, NJ state of emergency , how this storm is a true test for state. this is a big deal apparently for a fire drill. I don't know why they do this. I can understand being cautious, but some stories I read we're just nuts. They made it seems as if it was set in stone that we were going to get a direct hit from this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know why they do this. I can understand being cautious, but some stories I read we're just nuts. They made it seems as if it was set in stone that we were going to get a direct hit from this thing.Any chance to get hits they go for it. After sandy this was too easy for them to throw out ridiculous headlines that grab the average persons attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Infrared presentation seems to be degrading a bit. ERC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Infrared presentation seems to be degrading a bit. ERC? Looks that way to me. Not sure yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks that way to me. Not sure yet though. Eye wall replacement cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Any chance to get hits they go for it. After sandy this was too easy for them to throw out ridiculous headlines that grab the average persons attention. Yeah, it's all about getting attention and bringing in the revenue I guess. We'll see what happens as the course of the hurricane continues to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks that way to me. Not sure yet though. Minor amounts of land interaction but quite a lot of slow spinning over the same waters. Could be some upwelling. The SW drifting seems to have been a lot deeper than expected. I'm not entirely convinced this thing is going to hairpin turn the way the models are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Eye wall replacement cycle Yes. I know what ERC means. Thanks. It certainly looks like one is occurring but I'm not 100% positive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Minor amounts of land interaction but quite a lot of slow spinning over the same waters. Could be some upwelling. The SW drifting seems to have been a lot deeper than expected. I'm not entirely convinced this thing is going to hairpin turn the way the models are expecting. I think you might be right about that. Was it really modeled to be this far south and close to Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Impacts may not be direct but there's going to be some serious coastal impacts due to the pressure gradient alone. (Coastal flooding, erosion, minor flooding 1-3" rains) Also parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic could be looking at a foot or more of rain (not directly related but still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think you might be right about that. Was it really modeled to be this far south and close to Florida? I don't think so... but I think the latest frames show a slight drift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't think so... but I think the latest frames show a slight drift north. Yeah I think it should start to go North soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 FWIW, Nam is a NC hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 FWIW, Nam Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gifWow... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Starting to get that buzzsaw look........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif This is actually horrifying. The bahamas must be insane right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I didn't see this posted so 11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 Location: 22.9°N 74.6°W Moving: W at 3 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 130 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The water vapor loop is quite impressive. If the models weren't so locked in, I might think this storm would make a direct hit on Hatteras. A question for those more experienced, is it more the strength of the ULL in North Georgia (lack of having a negative tilt) that will fail to capture the storm or is the position and strength of the ridge in the Atlantic the reason Joaquin will escape out to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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