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9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

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Was just reading the 5 am discussion,and thought it was interesting since of the things they pointed out:

onditions are expected to be

conducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin

moving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The

hurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET,

and ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global

models show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC

forecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has

Joaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be

moving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which

should result in slow weakening.

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That feathery outflow to the north reflects the lower shear today. Conditions appear ripe for intensification with an anticyclone getting established, not to mention that's total bathwater down there.

 

The ULAC, extreme latent heat release, and steady intensification lead me to believe that this could be a Category 2 by this evening. 

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The ULAC, extreme latent heat release, and steady intensification lead me to believe that this could be a Category 2 by this evening. 

Wouldn't be surprised at all. To my eye, the satellite presentation is improving from the overnight. Some sustained towers with the coldest tops we've seen so far showing up. Don't know the scale exactly, but a few white flecks popping on the GOES rainbow floater.

 

Edit: Still has work to do to close the eye wall.

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The one factor which makes me think the operational Euro "may" have some merit with its out to sea solution is the orientation of the mid level ridge. While quite potent, it's located at a longitude such that the door can open slightly for a weakness over the Atlantic. The mid level ridge is located further west than the antecedent pattern for Sandy, which featured more ridging near Newfoundland/Nova Scotia. One can clearly see the alleyway toward the east coast in the following 500mb mean, but I can also see the possibility of stage-right exit through the weakness.

 

 

5v0qbl.png

 

 

2s8k5mc.gif

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The one factor which makes me think the operational Euro "may" have some merit with its out to sea solution is the orientation of the mid level ridge. While quite potent, it's located at a longitude such that the door can open slightly for a weakness over the Atlantic. The mid level ridge is located further west than the antecedent pattern for Sandy, which featured more ridging near Newfoundland/Nova Scotia. One can clearly see the alleyway toward the east coast in the following 500mb mean, but I can also see the possibility of stage-right exit through the weakness.

5v0qbl.png

2s8k5mc.gif

I agree there is and probably will be an escape. But the damage is done wave wise. This is a severe coastal event

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Not to mention, no other models have really at all shifted to the east at all either.... In fact I recall reading in one of the recent hurricane discussions, the Euro had shifted west by 150 miles.

How can you say that it's probable that this will escape East? The Euro is all by itself, an outlier to most of its own ensembles.

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