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9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

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It is a step down from yesterday and we can likely handle even 5" given the dry conditions especially if it's spread out over a few days.

Significant yes but not extreme so that Met might've had the right idea.

I really didn't expect the models to maintain the same solution for days. We have the rain coming in tonight but the second part is still a day 3-5 event.

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My concern for the first system was it going to far nw...looks like that's the case now. This weekend is still very much up in the air

It appears that the ridge is holding on a bit longer than previously expected. I would still watch that surface low development this afternoon over E KY and WV. The 12z NAM is still spitting out 1-3" amounts over the next 36 hours. Obviously more the further NW you go.

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There should still be a fairly substantial area of heavier rains tonight, but the focus will be to the North and Northeast of where the surface low develops. I still wouldn't consider anything a lock at this point. You can see the moisture streaming right in from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

wv-animated.gif

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We have seen this before. Let's see what the rest of the 12z guidance says. I had the same feeling yesterday as well.

Some posters have a tendency to overreact instead of letting things play out completely. You're making it sound like we're not going to see anything. 1-2" with locally higher amounts is still the overwhelming consensus. 

 

The NAM is still really wet for tomorrow and Thursday. 

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