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9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

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Big question that still has to be considered is will Joaquin fully take the bait of the upper low a la 00Z GFS, or stay a little farther east of it and ride farther north up the coast? You may remember Edouard from 1996 that was forecast by global models to clobber the Mid Atlantic but kept riding 70N instead, avoiding full interaction with a digging trough to the west. Will depend how far west Joaquin gets before turning north I guess.

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Seems like they're being conservative until a HH plane can get in there. If I had to bet, the pressure is likely around 985 right now. It seems like the shear is done for the time being. It's a hurricane for sure, but I guess we'll have to wait until 5AM.

Exactly. May also be a less experienced and greener forecaster on the overnight shift. Nervous to be to Gung go.

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It's irrelevant. Media outlets will get the 5AM update as a hurricane in time to broadcast .

Exactly. It'll be upgraded at 5:00.

 

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was

located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Joaquin is

moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this

general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move

near or over portions of the central Bahamas Wednesday night or

Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and

Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),

mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

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