Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 845
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around. 

I think the shear is supposed to relax within the next 12-24 hours so guessing it will wrap around once that happens.  Looks good on satellite already

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recon noted an eye wall forming that's about half open.

Sent from my SM-G925V

Wow. That is pretty impressive then. Gotta think there will be changes tonight in the modeling as I don't think any models had this thing at 990 by this point.  Anyone know if the 18Z suite will have the recon data digested?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow. That is pretty impressive then. Gotta think there will be changes tonight in the modeling as I don't think any models had this thing at 990 by this point. Anyone know if the 18Z suite will have the recon data digested?

A bigger stronger storm will start to effect its own environment. So I would wait for later runs as it starts to do so.

One thing that could inhibit it is it is moving slow and will start to upwell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Appears OKX has trimmed expected rainfall amounts by half from what they were this morning:

 

StormTotalQPFFcst.png

Not really surprising given that the general model consensus has come down quite a bit from yesterday. Still 1.5-2.0" of rain is nothing to sneeze at. Could even see locally higher amounts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...