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Ghosts, Ghouls, Pumpkins, Autumn Chill?: October 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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Check out News12 Rich Hoffman's FB post with video of multiple waterspouts off of Westhampton earlier this morning.

https://m.facebook.com/News12MeteorologistRichHoffman

The year of the waterspout on Long Island. Still the highlight of my summer when I caught the one off long beach in sept. It's on newsday now too. Couple guys at the silly lilly fishing station took the pics. Steve D was credited by news 12 though

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Freeze watch up for north of NYC

-

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW
  JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

* TIMING...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED DUE TO
  THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
 

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So we're back to the warm/dry pattern according to the 12z gfs.

It's bone dry for the entire run with a large ridge in the east.

Same ol pattern.  We get these little isle of cold or wet, but it's largely the warm dry pattern than started in July at least in terms of sensible weather.

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Same ol pattern.  We get these little isle of cold or wet, but it's largely the warm dry pattern than started in July at least in terms of sensible weather.

That ridge is so strong that it almost pushes the developing tropical system into Texas or NE MX before the ridge eventually slides East and then it gets caught up in the incoming trough. I am fairly confident that whatever develops will end up merging with this frontal boundary and bring substantial rains to the North and East of wherever it tracks. 

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Eventually our luck will end as we are probably approaching the tipping point.

Still we are able to get these isolated anomalies like last February that throw things off temporarily.

It is interesting however that the hottest periods have gotten hotter (relative and departure wise) and the coldest periods have gotten colder over the past 15 years.

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all that cold last winter yet nyc or even ewr couldn't get below 0

It used to happen a few times per decade. I think 2004 had the best shot. The longer we go without cracking zero the less chances we have of ever cracking it again IMO.

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Freeze watch posted here in Union, so practically areas to my west are under it. While areas just to me east are not. I'm literally on the edge as usual.

Route 22 is a good pointer as to areas that radiate better than other in union county. Once east of mountainside, the mountains disappear on the west side of 22 and the landscape becomes way more urban.

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