Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,469
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    MiaY2k
    Newest Member
    MiaY2k
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Favorite Winter Terms, Phrases, and Images

Recommended Posts

LOL at March 6th.  Though the warning text forecast (4-8") actually did verify for me.  Barely.

 

Heh, I was in Boston for that one, we weren't supposed to get barely anything and we ended up with over a foot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QPF

 

national_200302162130.gif

 

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...
GFS AND ETA COMING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BEGINNING TMRW. SN HAS BEGUN OVR MUCH OF THE
REG...WITH -PL AND SOME -RA OVR SE ZNS. SFC RIDGE TO THE N WL PUSH
COLD SURGE DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORN. SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVR ERN OK/NW AR THIS MORN WL MOVE E OVR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BECOMING A MAJOR PLAYER BY THE END OF THE WKND. OVR THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS...THE MDLS HV BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER CLOSED
OFF SOLN WITH UPR TROF TO LIFT THRU THE OH VLY. WITH THE 00Z RUNS
THIS MORN...THE AVN HAS BEEN THE WEAKEST WITH THE UPR TROF...AND
OTHER MDLS CANADIAN SEF/ETA/UKMET SUPPORT A STRONGER UPR TROF. THIS
WOULD FAVOR A TRACK FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ON SUN TO BE CLOSER
TO THE ETA TRACK. WITH THE STGER UPR LOW WL HV A BETTER DEFINED
DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE PCPN TOTALS. JET DYNAMICS
VRY IMPRESSIVE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESP AS THE COASTAL SYS TAKES
OFF DURING THE DAY ON SUN. ALL IN ALL SIGNIFICANT SN TOTALS ARE
XPCTD OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS LLVL COLD AIR DEEPENS THRUT THE DAY...PCPN TYPE WL BECOME LESS OF
A PROB...FAVORING ALL SN. THE BIG COLD SURGE WL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A VRY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AROUND H9. THIS WL CAUSE PCPN TO SHUT
OFF FOR A WHILE THIS EVE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. WAS A LTL
SKEPTICAL OF THE AMT OF DRYING FCST BY THE MDLS...BUT CONSIDERING
THE TRAJECTORIES UPSTREAM RAOBS OVR NRN NEW ENG ARE BONE DRY. SN
TTLS TODAY XPCTD TO BE ROUGHLY 2-4 IN. NEW 06Z ETA COMING IN WETTER
THAN THE 06Z RUN...AND THE 06Z IAD SPECIAL SOUNDING INDICATED THE
PWAT UP TO 0.73 INCHES...SO MAY HV TO REVISIT TODAY/S SN TOTALS.

SFC LOW OVR THE SRN PLAINS MOVES E TO THE OH VLY BY THIS EVE...WITH
AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE WM SECTOR. DIABATIC HEATING FROM
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYS OVR THE S WL HV IMPACT ON THE QPF...AND
EVENTUAL STORM TRACK. THIS WL HV TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
OVERRUNNING PCPN CONTS ACROSS SRN ZNS...WITH SIG ACCUMS TNGT. FOR
NOW AM PLANNING ON 4-8 ACROSS THE S FOR TNGT TAPERING TO LTL ACCUM
ACROSS THE FAR N WITH CHC POPS TNGT. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TNGT
MAY BE ACROSS THE N. LOOKING AT FULL WND FRONTOGENESIS AND F VECTOR
CNVGC...WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A BAND OF SN NR THE MASON DIXON
TNGT...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DRY SLOT.

BY TMRW GOOD COLD CONVEYOR DEVELOPS AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SYS. SYS
HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION...WITH A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY NR THE NC COAST. VRY STG
UPR DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BY EVE IN SPLIT FLOW. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
CYCLONE AND ALREADY TIGHT SFC GRAD...WNDS WL START TO INCREASE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH VRY COLD TEMPS WL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
TOWARD EVE. SN TTLS ON SUN ATTM WL PLAY A CONSERVATIVE 2-4 IN THE
NORTH FOR SUN...WITH 4-8 IN THE S.


THE SN CONTS INTO SUN NIGHT..........

THANKS TO SURROUNDING WFOS AKQ/RNK AND HPC FOR COORD THIS MORN

MANNING

.MIDDLE TERM SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...
SOME MODEL DIFFS NOTED DRG THE PERIOD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ETA SHOW
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS THE CWA TO START THE PERIOD.
850 MB TEMPS AOB 0C AREA WIDE...WITH AVN NUMBERS THE COLDEST. WAA
SETS IN LATER SUN NGT WITH 850 MB LOW CTR TO OUR W. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVR LWR SRN MD SHOW A SIG WARM LAYER DVLPG ALOFT...SO WILL INDC A
CHGOVR/MIX TO IP/ZR DRG NGT. ELSW...WILL KEEP SUN NGT EVENT ALL
WHITE.

SFC LOW PROGGED OFF NC COAST MON MORNING...WITH AVN FURTHEST E. SFC
AND 850 LOW FCST TO TREK SLOWLY DRG DAY...AND MOISTURE DEPARTURE
ALSO LOOKS DELAYED. WILL SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MON EVENING.

QPF TOTALS SUN NGT INTO MON LOOK QUITE HEFTY. BOTH MODELS SHOW VERY
STG UVV PROGGED OVR SRN HALF OF CWA. RR 110 KT JETLET PASSES OVRHD.
ETA PUMPING ON 2 OF LIQUID SUN NGT. SOME OF THIS IN THE SERN ZONES
WILL NOT BE SNOW. HOWEVER ...EVEN IF YOU CUT THE QPF IN HALF IN
AREAS THAT WILL BE ALL SNOW...YOU COME UP WITH SOME DOUBLE DIGIT
ACCUMULATIONS BY MON. NCEP GRAPHICS SHOW A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA WITH
OVR A FOOT BEFORE ITS DONE.


TEMPS SHD HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A DEG OR TWO SUN NGT.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIDES WITH PROLONGED MODERATE TO STG
NELY FLOW FCST DRG PD.

RDH

.XTNDD /TUE-FRI/...STORM WL BE NE OF CWFA BY 12Z TUE. FLW ALFT
WLY...W/ H8 WAA POISED TO THE W AND NOSE OF UPR JET IMPINGING UPON
AREA. THUS...CLRG WL BE SLOW...BUT WL HPPN DUE TO BLDG HIPRES/DVM.
NRN STREAM SYSTM ACRS GRTLKS WED WKNS AS IT SPINS TO CNDN MARITIMES
BY 00Z THU...DROPPING WK CDFNT ACRS AREA. NOT MUCH EVIDENCE THAT IT
WL DO MUCH THIS FAR S. GFS MSTR THAN GGEM. CONSIDERING MDL BIAS...WL
KEEP POPS OUT OF FCST. OF GREATER INTEREST IS DVLPG SRN PLAINS SYSTM
WED NGT...WHICH WUD SPILL SOME PCPN ACRS AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIMEFRAME. 00Z/15 GFS RUN IS MUCH WEAKER THAN RUN 24 HRS PRIOR.
STRNGR SRN STREAM SYSTM NOW PROGGED FOR SAT. WL INTRODUCE POPS TO
END OF FCST...BUT KEEP IT AT 30 PCT TIL GDNC CAN NRRW DWN TO A
SINGLE SOLN. TKNS SCHEMES WUD POINT TO RAIN AS PREDOMINATE PTYPE
(). CUDNT RULE OUT SOME WET SNW AT NGT BASED ON MIN/T AND ULTIMATE
PATH OF LO. WAY TOO FAR OUT TO BE MAKING THOSE DETERMINATIONS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES. WL PLACE MIX IN GRIDS AT NGT AND MIXED WORDING IN ZFP
AS A STARTING PT.

HTS

.LWX...
DC...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013
MDZ014...MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN VAZ021...VAZ025>031...
VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN WVZ048>055.
MARINE...SCA ANZ530>537.

TEAM LWX

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's more fantasy than reality, l know.

Ok , back to reality...

Mapgirl jackpot

That my favorite phrase too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasn't that our biggest storm last year? :lol:

You know... you're right lol. That was a nice one. That cut off to the south had me on the edge of my seat. Lucky I made it in. 5 miles to my south had hardly anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You know... you're right lol. That was a nice one. That cut off to the south had me on the edge of my seat. Lucky I made it in. 5 miles to my south had hardly anything.

On the right side of the fall--I mean fail--line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still don't know what that is :facepalm:

 

Look at 700mb (approx 10k' up) panels on short range models (or even globals) when it's gametime. VV's (vertical velocities) are a measure of lift or upward motion in the atmosphere (negative) and sinking or downward motion (positive). Obviously we don't care about downward or positive VV values because sinking air doesn't cause enhanced precipitation. 

 

Different model sites use different colors but NCEP's are really easy to interpret. The green shading is humidity or saturation. When you see enhanced upward vertical velocities in a saturated airmass then that is the area most likely to have the highest precipitation rates. Other factors like dendritic snow growth play a big role as well. The perfect combination is enhanced vertical velocities with optimal snow growth. That's when you get the 1-2" per hour kind of stuff. 

 

Looking at the 700 vv panels days in advance is kinda useless but close in it can give you a good idea who might get the best rates and heaviest precip.

 

 

ETA: I had it backwards and edited the post. Negative values indicate rising air and vice versa. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no idea what storm this is from but I dug it up. This shows a closed h7 low near the mouth of the bay with a Sparky/Mappy jackpot zone. This would be the most common h7 map for snow in our area. LOL

 

post-2035-0-46504300-1442501008_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no idea what storm this is from but I dug it up. This shows a closed h7 low near the mouth of the bay with a Sparky/Mappy jackpot zone. This would be the most common h7 map for snow in our area. LOL

700vv.JPG

MG hits a grand slam while most of us barely touch first.

Day dampened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×