The Winter season severity index

[Ginx snewx]

http://brilliantmaps.com/winter-severity-index/

[Ginx snewx]

[mayjawintastawm]

Interesting. Thanks for posting. Central MA (where I spent 90% of my life thus far) is almost exactly the same, numbers-wise, as Northeastern CO (where I've been the past 5 years). Average temps are almost exactly the same here, but winters are far more benign, with fewer big dumps and far less time with significant snow on the ground... in fact Denver hardly ever even plows the roads. Looking at what you get points for, I'd guess that the map is hugely temperature driven, with only a few spots having much differential impact from snow, such as the upper Lakes (more points) and the Western high deserts (fewer points). 

 

If I were the authors of the paper, I'd give big storms and snow depth more points, and low temps fewer points, unless real low like below zero F.

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting. Thanks for posting. Central MA (where I spent 90% of my life thus far) is almost exactly the same, numbers-wise, as Northeastern CO (where I've been the past 5 years). Average temps are almost exactly the same here, but winters are far more benign, with fewer big dumps and far less time with significant snow on the ground... in fact Denver hardly ever even plows the roads. Looking at what you get points for, I'd guess that the map is hugely temperature driven, with only a few spots having much differential impact from snow, such as the upper Lakes (more points) and the Western high deserts (fewer points).

If I were the authors of the paper, I'd give big storms and snow depth more points, and low temps fewer points, unless real low like below zero F.

agree

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting. Thanks for posting. Central MA (where I spent 90% of my life thus far) is almost exactly the same, numbers-wise, as Northeastern CO (where I've been the past 5 years). Average temps are almost exactly the same here, but winters are far more benign, with fewer big dumps and far less time with significant snow on the ground... in fact Denver hardly ever even plows the roads. Looking at what you get points for, I'd guess that the map is hugely temperature driven, with only a few spots having much differential impact from snow, such as the upper Lakes (more points) and the Western high deserts (fewer points). 

 

If I were the authors of the paper, I'd give big storms and snow depth more points, and low temps fewer points, unless real low like below zero F.

 

A place like ORH averages around 70 days of snow cover in a winter (and frequently several weeks of deep snow cover)...far more than most plains regions. Our region's proximity to the Atlantic prevents the insane temperature intrusions that occur in the plains, but it gives us much bigger snowstorms. It's probably a subjective task to try and weight the variables. There's really no true objective way to weight them. Temperatures can cause a lot of problems if they are cold enough, but heavy snow can be crippling in it's own right.

[ice1972]

A place like ORH averages around 70 days of snow cover in a winter (and frequently several weeks of deep snow cover)...far more than most plains regions. Our region's proximity to the Atlantic prevents the insane temperature intrusions that occur in the plains, but it gives us much bigger snowstorms. It's probably a subjective task to try and weight the variables. There's really no true objective way to weight them. Temperatures can cause a lot of problems if they are cold enough, but heavy snow can be crippling in it's own right.

We don't suffer from moisture starvation like they do in the plains and upper midwest right? While at the same we get temperature moderation from the atlantic.....New England is a trip sometimes....

[Jason Stanley]

On 9/12/2015 at 5:04 AM, Ginx snewx said:

http://brilliantmaps.com/winter-severity-index/

It seems this map is hhighly temperature driven.

[dendrite]

I guess I missed this 2 years ago. I'm surprised snow depth has that much importance in this severity index. Snow pack doesn't actively do anything to impact your life...generally speaking. Once the snow has fallen it just sits there. In a really snowy winter I can rack up the 35"+ days which are supposedly equivalent in points to a high of -30F or a low of -65F. I almost feel like there should be some sort of wind factor instead.

[tamarack]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I guess I missed this 2 years ago. I'm surprised snow depth has that much importance in this severity index. Snow pack doesn't actively do anything to impact your life...generally speaking. Once the snow has fallen it just sits there. In a really snowy winter I can rack up the 35"+ days which are supposedly equivalent in points to a high of -30F or a low of -65F. I almost feel like there should be some sort of wind factor instead.

Using some averages for my records, which include days in each 10" range (1-10 = 4 pt, 11-20 = 7 pt, 21-30 = 10 pt, 30-39 = 12 pt [60% 10, 40% 15), 40+ = 15), I found my average winter points just for snow depth was 814, ranging from 440 in 05-06 to 1,439 2 years later.  Since central Maine is in the 1,000-1,500 color, I agree that snowpack is over-counted in this system.

Next is Ft. Kent, in the 1,500-2,000 color (though I'd put my back settlement years at 970' one color more severe.)

Edit:  Ft. Kent avg is 1,257, range 765 to 1,987.  In town 1,163; Back settlement 1,376.  That location will bag far more temperature point than my current place, and in town may come out on top for that part of the equation, as all my below -35 mornings came there.

[OSUmetstud]

St. Johns takes quite a hit on mean winter temp and snow depth i guess.  Seems pretty silly.  Bonavista, NL = northern Iowa? Lolz.  

[CoastalWx]

This index is LOLZ. Looks like something made from a weenie's basement. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This index is LOLZ. Looks like something made from a weenie's basement. 

Yeah the state climatologist of AK is such a weenie. You will insult anyone.

 

Daily scores are calculated based on scores assigned to temperature, snowfall, and snow depth thresholds. The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season.

 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yeah the state climatologist of AK is such a weenie. You will insult anyone.

 

Daily scores are calculated based on scores assigned to temperature, snowfall, and snow depth thresholds. The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season.

 

Oh please, it's a winter weenie getting a chub from people like you. Of course the crusader of cold defends it.

[CoastalWx]

Honestly, is this metric or the NESIS storm thing really going to change your opinion on a winter or storm? We are basically IMBY people...are people going pop one out to a NESIS 20 or whatever the top rating is, when they only got 3"?  Maybe Kevin will come up with the summer severity index for heat, dewpoints, and faux severe.

[Ginx snewx]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh please, it's a winter weenie getting a chub from people like you. Of course the crusader of cold defends it.

People like me?, hey Scott  you are the biggest weenie in all of AmWx, go start a blizzard of 96 thread. Get your 96 hardo 

  

[tamarack]

On ‎3‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 4:36 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yeah the state climatologist of AK is such a weenie. You will insult anyone.

 

Daily scores are calculated based on scores assigned to temperature, snowfall, and snow depth thresholds. The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season.

 

I've run my 18 full winters here, using some existing data that required some averaging, so the results are probably +/-5% from doing it precisely as listed.  The annual average came to 1,922, which would be high-end for northern Maine and well above the 1000-1500 range for my area.  This mostly wooded frost pocket holds snow well, and the proportions of my score for each of the 4 indicators shows just how much minima and depth dominate.

Percentages for each indicator:
Maxima:  8%
Minima:  43%
Daily snowfall:  7%
Snow depth:  42%

IMO, any attempt at such an index should be more balanced than to have half the indicators providing 85% of the results.

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

I've run my 18 full winters here, using some existing data that required some averaging, so the results are probably +/-5% from doing it precisely as listed.  The annual average came to 1,922, which would be high-end for northern Maine and well above the 1000-1500 range for my area.  This mostly wooded frost pocket holds snow well, and the proportions of my score for each of the 4 indicators shows just how much minima and depth dominate.

Percentages for each indicator:
Maxima:  8%
Minima:  43%
Daily snowfall:  7%
Snow depth:  42%

IMO, any attempt at such an index should be more balanced than to have half the indicators providing 85% of the results.

One could say that snow cover and depth indeed has an effect on the severity of the winter especially for the non urban folks who need to tend to animals and property

 

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One could say that snow cover and depth indeed has an effect on the severity of the winter especially for the non urban folks who need to tend to animals and property

 

Absolutely.  However, for effect on daily routines, I think the snowfalls themselves deserve more of a share; currently they're less than one-sixth as influential within the index as is depth.  I'd also prefer use of daily mean temps, or a different scale for max and min, to avoid the huge discrepancy now evident.  The vodka-cold mornings make one's vehicle hard to start and freezes pipes, while the daylight cold is when we're more likely to be out where we can feel it.

Of course, as others have posted, it's kind of a weenie index anyway.