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John1122

Fall 2015 Pattern Discussion

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Meteorological Summer ended 9 days ago. The weather is definitely looking fall-like over the coming week, with many areas looking likely to see the 40s for lows and upper 60s to low 70s for highs. 

 

I don't know if we'll see 30s as the GFS is hinting at (I've seen 30s in late September here) but do think upper 40s/low 50s will be wide spread.

 

 

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I feel with the TS/Hurricane, maybe some discussion is warranted. Looks like most of this stops in the mtns, some downsloping in the valleys, and some needed rains on the Plateau. Amounts in the Piedmont look overdone much like the blizzard that never happened last winter. But with a tropical system half of what is modeled would be pretty bad. Let's hope that does not come to fruition for our friends across the mtns.

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I feel with the TS/Hurricane, maybe some discussion is warranted. Looks like most of this stops in the mtns, some downsloping in the valleys, and some needed rains on the Plateau. Amounts in the Piedmont look overdone much like the blizzard that never happened last winter. But with a tropical system half of what is modeled would be pretty bad. Let's hope that does not come to fruition for our friends across the mtns.

Have you seen the 6z GFS? Brings the band into our area and crushing KTRI with up to 10 inches of rain.

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Have you seen the 6z GFS? Brings the band into our area and crushing KTRI with up to 10 inches of rain.

The Euro isn't on board with a landfall solution and it's within 5 days.  If this was winter we all know how this would play out, right? lol  So it's the Euro against the world.  I am taking bets.  Where do you guys/gals place your chips?  

 

In all seriousness, I would love to hear one of our mets thoughts on this one.  I say you can't discount the best model in the world, and even though it's on an island it probably has at least a 50% chance of verifying with it's OTS solution.

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Euro should prevail, and not just because it is the Euro. That said, the Mid Atlantic and NC are still going to get hammered by heavy rain and flooding associated with the stalled and juicy front fed by a tropical tap.

 

Relative to Sandy the Euro and GFS traded tracks for Joaquin. Ironically, despite opposite tracks, the reason is the same. GFS has a faster deeper more progressive mid-latitude trough, just like it did approaching Sandy. In 2012 the GFS trough booted the storm out to sea. Euro correctly steered Sandy in under the New England high press. This year Joaquin is positioned differently, approaching from farther south. GFS trough pulls it west. Euro more subtle trough influences Joaquin later, and after it is set sail at sea. Although the Joaquin tracks are reversed compared to Sandy, the physics is the same. GFS may overdo a mid-latitude trough; and, the Euro has a good chance of prevailing.

 

If the Euro indeed prevails it will be an impressive coup over the HWRF. Clashing with the GFS is no surprise, but the HWRF is a more formidable foe.

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MRX has decided to go with the GFS and is saying 2-5 inches of rain Friday night - Saturday night. It'll be interesting to see what happens to say the least. If the GFS scenario occurs, Western NC and the Far Eastern areas here will probably see a good bit of flash flooding. 

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Euro should prevail, and not just because it is the Euro. That said, the Mid Atlantic and NC are still going to get hammered by heavy rain and flooding associated with the stalled and juicy front fed by a tropical tap.

 

Relative to Sandy the Euro and GFS traded tracks for Joaquin. Ironically, despite opposite tracks, the reason is the same. GFS has a faster deeper more progressive mid-latitude trough, just like it did approaching Sandy. In 2012 the GFS trough booted the storm out to sea. Euro correctly steered Sandy in under the New England high press. This year Joaquin is positioned differently, approaching from farther south. GFS trough pulls it west. Euro more subtle trough influences Joaquin later, and after it is set sail at sea. Although the Joaquin tracks are reversed compared to Sandy, the physics is the same. GFS may overdo a mid-latitude trough; and, the Euro has a good chance of prevailing.

 

If the Euro indeed prevails it will be an impressive coup over the HWRF. Clashing with the GFS is no surprise, but the HWRF is a more formidable foe.

Money.

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0z and 6z GFS trended to the Euro's OTS solution. The Euro has scored a lot of wins before but this one will be its biggest win. Virtually no other model was even close to the Euro. I still think it has a chance to get captured and hit land. It is very close. Regardless it won't matter too much for the Carolinas with respect to rainfall.

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My job site is out by Parksville Lake on the Ocoee river. TVA has dropped the lake level 2 feet today. I assume in preparation for the need for flood storage. Although the mountains may keep the crazy foot plus totals out of TN, I'm worried about the potential for training convection causing flooding on a more isolated basis.

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0z and 6z GFS trended to the Euro's OTS solution. The Euro has scored a lot of wins before but this one will be its biggest win. Virtually no other model was even close to the Euro. I still think it has a chance to get captured and hit land. It is very close. Regardless it won't matter too much for the Carolinas with respect to rainfall.

It is so far outside the NHC cone of CYA by 72 hours on the Euro I doubt there is much chance of that...but as you said, it won't matter for the rainfall that is coming. Almost all of our upper tribs are on the edge of big precip totals so we will be watching this very carefully.

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It is so far outside the NHC cone of CYA by 72 hours on the Euro I doubt there is much chance of that...but as you said, it won't matter for the rainfall that is coming. Almost all of our upper tribs are on the edge of big precip totals so we will be watching this very carefully.

TVA just pouring water down the Holston. I always know they are concerned when they are making room in their reservoirs up here.

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Looks like FFC has expanded their FFW to all of the TN border counties. I'm expecting MRX to expand the FFW to include their entire CWA tonight. The moisture train is clearly not having any problems crossing the mountains so far. There will be a sharp cutoff on the southern edge, but I think most of SE TN will be north of it.

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Looking like the first frost/freeze is coming down the pike this weekend. Lows should be in the 30s for most areas, especially north of 40 Saturday night. If the GFS is true, it may frost Thursday morning in my area and lows in the 20s are possible Sunday morning in Northern East Tennessee/SE Kentucky/SW Virginia.

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Looking like the first frost/freeze is coming down the pike this weekend. Lows should be in the 30s for most areas, especially north of 40 Saturday night. If the GFS is true, it may frost Thursday morning in my area and lows in the 20s are possible Sunday morning in Northern East Tennessee/SE Kentucky/SW Virginia.

Shows us getting down to 40,when is your avg. first freeze?

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Control last night is looking like what the weeklies have been hinting at around the 26-27 of the month,other than timing issues.A slow moving cold front,ridge to the east,system coming out the Gulf that rides it with a - tilted trough.Potential is there for some heavy rains and flooding

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The GFS is getting similar to the Euro,not as progressive.Still much can change but a good plume of moisture is looking to get pulled up,we could use the rain right now especially in the NW parts of the Valley that are in a moderate drought.

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Cool down not as quick as I expected. My station is at 50.2F, was expecting to get down to near freezing. Maybe not.

If you didn't that cold it probably was from the HP to the east bringing up southerly winds,at least that's what effected us over here.

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