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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


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This looks borderline catastrophic for areas on the western fringes of metro OKC south-southwestward toward Verden, Anadarko, Carnegie, etc., which likely already have on the order of 0.5" accretion this evening. For the immediate city south and east, it's a real nailbiter: it's obviously going to be a significant ice storm, but whether it winds up deserving mention alongside something like December 2007 will hinge on the placement of the heavier band tonight, as well as whether we crack 32 F tomorrow afternoon. Something at least on the order of December 2013 seems fairly likely over much of the area, particularly NW of I-44, though.

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Twice in 2007 but it was farther east. Some 1-2" freezing rain amounts over this area in one of the storms.

 

Oh yes. You guys had a very significant ice storm that year right? I believe an area north of Springfield had 2+". I believe models did a reasonable job with that one if I remember correctly.

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Oh yes. You guys had a very significant ice storm that year right? I believe an area north of Springfield had 2+". I believe models did a reasonable job with that one if I remember correctly.

 

Yep.

 

Jan%2013%202007%20icestorm.jpg

 

Followed by this at the end of the year.

 

ice_map_121007.png

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
849 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 AM ICE STORM ENID 36.40N 97.88W
11/28/2015 GARFIELD OK EMERGENCY MNGR

.75 TO 1 INCHES OF ICE ON POWER LINES AND TREES.
 

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I am on the northwest side of Oklahoma City (but not as far out as El Reno, which seems to have been the bullseye so far), but I can confirm widespread 0.5 to 0.75" of ice here. I am not exaggerating when I say the majority of trees around here are either fully down or have lost at least one large limb. It's been a few years since our last truly bad ice storm and that coupled with the leaves still being on the trees has caused some serious attrition.

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Things look to be progressing in the same direction as the weeklies from last Thursday. Still expecting a warmup until mid-Dec when things should start changing.

 

The 12z CFS v2 sub-monthly this morning had a different look than usual and was very cold starting just past mid-month for much of the nation and remained colder than normal through Jan 13th. I'm assuming this is -EPO driven, with the Aleutian low position moving farther west allowing the ridge to build into Alaska.

 

The new CanSIPS should be out tomorrow evening.  

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I know I've been very quiet the past few weeks but I have nothing really to add to what JoMo has had to say. Really anxious to see what happens when the pattern reloads after mid-month and the brief 'torch' burns out. I've read several pages of writings that still suggest that the PV should split at the end of December or Early January so things are still looking decent for great things down the road.

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Weeklies took a step back from what I was hoping to see......

 

Goes out to Dec 31st today. Looks like the general El Nino pattern will continue with the emphasis for storms/cold being in the western and especially southwestern US. Storm systems will either roll across the south, or end up tracking west of us. PNA looks to be neturalish with the +AO staying put. Doesn't look like there would be much -EPO help either, so it's a mild look overall I believe.

 

Will have to wait a bit for temps.

 

UPDATE: Temps looks warm, if the control is right then it's toasty a lot of the time. Coldest weather along the front range and points west. 

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So this isn't looking to good of a winter season again so far :(. Last year it was just average and boring. I read a lot of blogs and writeups from mets saying this winter was going to be well above normal for snowfall etc. lol. I guess time will tell. Man I really hope christmas is cold, that writeup you did JoMo sounds discouraging :(.

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So this isn't looking to good of a winter season again so far :(. Last year it was just average and boring. I read a lot of blogs and writeups from mets saying this winter was going to be well above normal for snowfall etc. lol. I guess time will tell. Man I really hope christmas is cold, that writeup you did JoMo sounds discouraging :(.

 

It'll improve in January. Feb might be ok as well although I'm worried everything may end up too far south. I was hoping we'd get some improvement in late Dec, which is still a possibility. I wanted to see storm after storm with enough cold air for snow like 2002, but that run was targeting mostly the western US. 

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It'll improve in January. Feb might be ok as well although I'm worried everything may end up too far south. I was hoping we'd get some improvement in late Dec, which is still a possibility. I wanted to see storm after storm with enough cold air for snow like 2002, but that run was targeting mostly the western US.

I think there's a good possibility of the next one being more in the ballpark of what we're looking for. Just a hunch though.

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It'll improve in January. Feb might be ok as well although I'm worried everything may end up too far south. I was hoping we'd get some improvement in late Dec, which is still a possibility. I wanted to see storm after storm with enough cold air for snow like 2002, but that run was targeting mostly the western US. 

What was 2002 like in Joplin? I was in Kansas City and I remember that giant ice storm that we had there in 2001 which just crippled the entire city for over a week. I believe 2001-2002 was really cold and snowy/icy up that way. 2003 I was back in Jersey tending to family needs and for a few years there it was a dud minus one big snowstorm. 2006-2007 were crazy years with snow and ice when I lived in Osceola missouri though...crazy winter seasons those 2 were man! Hopefully something changes for late december ya know, I need some cold air to put me in that holiday spirit lol.

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What was 2002 like in Joplin? I was in Kansas City and I remember that giant ice storm that we had there in 2001 which just crippled the entire city for over a week. I believe 2001-2002 was really cold and snowy/icy up that way. 2003 I was back in Jersey tending to family needs and for a few years there it was a dud minus one big snowstorm. 2006-2007 were crazy years with snow and ice when I lived in Osceola missouri though...crazy winter seasons those 2 were man! Hopefully something changes for late december ya know, I need some cold air to put me in that holiday spirit lol.

 

2002-2003 was very snowy here. 

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The storm around day 11 on the GFS is starting to at least draw my interest at this time.

 

Yeah, there's something of interest around mid-month, maybe a bit later that keeps showing up but the models don't know what to do with it. Also a big -SOI spike is ongoing which is going to cause model disruption for a bit as well. 

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Looks like the new SST CA is out....

The El Nino looks to decay a little faster.

 

Comparing last months run to this months run:

 

JFM still has the Aleutian low look, with the southern stream cutting across the area... The southern stream may be a bit farther north with the Aleutian low area smaller. Pretty much just noise though.

cahgt_anom.1.gif

 

 

Temps are very similar to last month's run:

 

cat2m_anom.1.gif

 

 

Precip looks to have increased a bit and moved a bit farther north:

 

caprec_anom.1.gif

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Euro Weeklies:

 

Going out to Jan 3rd tonight. +AO looks to remain. PNA looks to go negative for a time before it goes back positive. We'll start off with the big trough in the west around mid-month and increasing storminess from basically the Arctic, Alaska and along the west coast. This morphs into storminess over the southwest, as has been the case recently. It's possible something tries to come out of the southwest around Christmas or shortly after. And then storminess reestablishes itself over the southwest into the southern US by the end of the run. Alaska looks to remain stormy but as time goes on, things may retrograde to the west. We'll see. There are large noticeable differences between the control run and the ensemble mean through the forecast period though, so there might be a large spread of solutions. 

 

Back in a bit with temps...

 

UPDATE: Temp information for Jan 1-3rd is missing, but it looks warmer than normal for much of Dec. Towards the end of the period, the temps may get cooler. The control is actually cooler/below normal starting around the 18th and it warms back up towards the last days of the month. This might be due to some expected snowfall in the area Christmas week.

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This is basically the type of temp distribution the Euro Weeklies had yesterday for much of Dec, only the more anomalous heat was located north of the Great Lakes and the heat to our east wasn't as strong but the general west half of the country cooler than normal and the east half warmer than normal.

 

gfs_T2ma_us_50.png

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The upcoming pattern starting in about a week is going to be a very active and confusing one for the models since there's a lot of energy smashing into the western US. Will it all come out as one big storm system? Will it come out as multiple waves? A mix of both? Also where does it come out? If the trend so far this season holds up, any storm(s) may pass to our north and west. Anything that passes to our south though would probably give us at least a chance of some snowfall. We'll see what happens.....

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