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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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Sometimes you just gotta dance with who brung ya. OUN has advisories up for a swath of southwest OK for 1" to 3" of snow. They just extended it a couple of counties eastward, though not quite to OKC. Eh, maybe we'll see enough to whiten the ground in these parts.... and I'd take it.

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I've read quite a few blogs/posts/articles about how the warm up should be very temporary

 

We'll see, but I'm not getting my hopes up for anything. Some years are just stinkers and we've had a couple of good above normal snowfall years, so not surprising if we have a really bad year to average it out. 

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But it's not like phases 7/8 did us any good this yr, either.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

It brought the cold. Can't get snow when it's 65. Active El Nino flow was just mistimed. We could still get a couple snows if things do end up coming together through mid-March. But an all around great winter is kind of off the table at this point. 

 

Next winter could probably be anything, but I doubt it will be a strong El Nino or La Nina. 

 

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And the GFS can pull stuff like this on ya.......

 

Last nights 00z GFS run had a trough moving through, nothing precip wise here in the area, precip located down across central AR and points south. Not a big deal.......

 

500mbrelvortconus.png

 

 

 

Today's 12z run has a closed low over NE OK and the system winding up...

 

500mbrelvortconus.png

 

 

 

 

And now suddenly you've got snow in Kansas, Northern MO and it could wrap back into SE KS, SW MO, and far NW AR. 

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We may not get any of the white stuff but at least it is now in the NOAA forecast is for a 50% chance of light snow / flurries this afternoon and then again on Tuesday night and again on Thursday per Wunderground  they be forecasting a 90% chance Tues night with total 1"  .    This is the best news I've heard all winter... so far . :lmao:

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Winter cancel until December 2019 at the earliest.

Seriously though, keep an eye on the previous rainy overrunning parts of the pattern that are showing up toward the ends of the model runs. This will bring one of the best chances of a prolonged winter event if we are to have one.

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The Thursday system has my interest for now. If it comes a bit father south like the GFS has it could see a transition to snow for awhile.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

The 12z Euro is farther east with the snow but the western extent of the band is just off to your east, so I'd say it needs watched.

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