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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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One of the biggest non-tropical systems I've seen. Sums up this winter so far. I sure hope the long range comes around soon.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

 

About 10-11 days or so until possible next system. You should have seen the 00z Euro ensemble last night. Looked fun.

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That's good to hear. I'm still holding out hope for later in Jan and Feb.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

 

Looks good, as of now, of course it could change. But the 00z Euro ensemble brought the trough across the south around Jan 10th or so. None of that trough getting stuck in the west stuff.

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About 10-11 days or so until possible next system. You should have seen the 00z Euro ensemble last night. Looked fun.

Ridiculously fun. When you start throwing around January 1978 as an analog for the pattern, you're talking about epic winter stuff.

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You all are going to hate me..... Absolutely perfect snowfall a bit ago. Huge huge flakes, at least half dollar size. Coming perfectly straight down. It was snowing snowballs!!!  Haven't seen flakes that big in years, if ever. It was amazing.

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It's gone back to the light snowfall now. It was great. Looks like maybe 1/2" of slush accumulation at most, but the huge flakes are always on my winter "ToDo" list and I can't remember the last year that they happened. If you looked up, you could see these giant snowflakes floating down. It was something.

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12z Euro ensemble still looks good in the extended. Ridge is going to build into Alaska and the Arctic. Trough stays over the SW until around the 10th, and then pushes east across the southern US and builds into the south/east through the end of the run which is the 12th. The control looks to have storm systems lining up under the ridge in the Pacific. 

 

Weeklies in a bit..... (which will have changed a lot since the last weeklies)

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Euro Weeklies:

 

Go out to Jan 28th this evening. We'll start off around the 10th when it has the troughing coming across the southern US. The entire US then has lower than normal heights with an emphasis on more trough developing across the western US around the 18th or so. Appears the ridging near Alaska will break down and be replaced by a trough, so the Weeklies don't think the upcoming 'pattern change' locks in and we go back to a somewhat similar Dec look. -AO that eventually goes back positive. +PNA that goes to neutral. 

 

 

EDIT: Temps look generally around normal on average. Maybe warming up at the end of the run towards the later part of the month. Temps are probably influenced heavily by snowcover. 

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So according to the weeklies there is no sustained pattern change coming?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

 

For a couple weeks, then it wants to revert back to GoA trough with a ridge over or east of Hudson Bay. We'll see though since it was a dramatic change from the weeklies on Thurs anyway. The change back is in week 4 or so anyway. The weeklies just don't think the upcoming -EPO/-AO sticks around more than a couple weeks.

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I just noticed the new Euro parallel run has updated. This run goes out to 46 days. It breaks down the ridging over Alaska towards the end of Jan due to the trough moving east into the GOA, but the trough in the GOA backs to the west again and the ridge builds again over Alaska at the end of the first week of Feb. Troughing pretty much stays over the southern US the entire run though after the first week. 

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00z GFS now showing another storm in the day 10 range with good solid cold air hanging around. Looks to be ejecting out of SW TX and laying a hefty band of snow on days 11 and 12 through our area. This was on twisterdata so not too sure about it but I think it's worth noting for sure given all the models agreeing on something big around this timeframe.

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I just noticed the new Euro parallel run has updated. This run goes out to 46 days. It breaks down the ridging over Alaska towards the end of Jan due to the trough moving east into the GOA, but the trough in the GOA backs to the west again and the ridge builds again over Alaska at the end of the first week of Feb. Troughing pretty much stays over the southern US the entire run though after the first week.

The ensemble mean on that for snow looks pretty tasty for our area considering it is likely north and west biased.

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Looks like another warm up coming to me by the weekend, close to 50 again lol. Too far out on models to trust anything at this point and the way things have been, just one big storm! Just one is all we need, last season was crap at just average. You guys buy into the 150 to 300 percent above normal snowfall mets and long range forecasters were thinking lol?

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