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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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JAMSTEC has updated. Compared to last month, we are wetter and colder.

Big shift of colder temps to the west and NW.

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

Precip increased:

tprep.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

That's a blend of 2009-10, 2002-03 and 2013-14. I'm sure there is another year or 2 you could blend for balance but I'll take that any winter. :-) Every model but one I think has trended colder and farther west except for CFSv2 and I always laugh at it. I'm loving where this is headed.

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CFS v2 seems mega confused right now. It's got a different look almost every run. Usually it changes a bit daily, but these are large changes that give a different Pacific and Arctic look each run. The models have kind of busted on what it was supposed to do in Sept so far anyway. Makes me uncertain about winter......

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CFS v2 seems mega confused right now. It's got a different look almost every run. Usually it changes a bit daily, but these are large changes that give a different Pacific and Arctic look each run. The models have kind of busted on what it was supposed to do in Sept so far anyway. Makes me uncertain about winter......

Hola. Visiting from another sub forum. As far as Nino climo, one thing that hasn't happened in our neck of the woods that typically does happen is an abrupt early end to summer. Makes me wonder if we'll get an atypical winter.

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Not sure at this point. The big fear would be a winter like 1997-1998 which was mild. 

 

I posted maps on the old thread of the 30 days ending around June 20th or so for CFS v2 runs. I just looked at the last 30 day run ending around Sept 20th and compared it to the earlier maps.

 

For Dec, the Aleutian low area took a pretty big jump north and a bit east when compared to June's run. The southern branch looks a bit weaker.

For Jan, the Aleutian low area is farther north than it was in June. Also the southern branch is a bit farther south.

For Feb, everything is a bit farther south but still in general agreement with the location of the Aleutian low. 

 

So there was a big noticeable change with December in putting the low farther north towards Alaska, and a farther north position in January as well but it wasn't as big. 

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Just doing some research on temperature trends for autumn. (Tulsa NWS) It seems that the better Nino years for cold and snow in winter featured a fairly overall cold autumn. Several were in the top 20 in fact with 2009 being the coldest. No surprise that the worst years in the list were the 2 'super' Nino years. Seems to me that we need to trend cold pretty fast or we'll only be watching winter on the news or in other regions. Maybe the start of October can flip the switch, so to speak.

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New Euro weeklies today....

 

Looks like the ensemble mean has the Aleutian low area developing in the GOA and retrograding back west to around the 'correct' position as we head through Oct. Control run has a trough over central Canada and ridging in the GOA though..... lol

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New Euro weeklies today....

Looks like the ensemble mean has the Aleutian low area developing in the GOA and retrograding back west to around the 'correct' position as we head through Oct. Control run has a trough over central Canada and ridging in the GOA though..... lol

Not looking too great. Probably going to end up tossing December which I guess was the original idea that a lot of people had anyway. Hoping the ensembles win.

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The good thing on the Weeklies today is that it doesn't look like we get a GOA trough that gets stuck there in October. Looks like it'll retrograde back to the W and NW after about the first week in Oct.

Yeah. I saw the Euro trying to throw some cold our way in about 9-10 days. I understand blocking is also trying to develop in the Atlantic. Would be cool if it did.

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GFS Ensemble and the Euro Ensemble aren't that different in the long range, and it actually matches up pretty well with what the Euro weeklies showed back on Thurs. This is a pretty decent look for an El Nino  and it would be pretty good if it would stick around. Low/troughing far enough west towards the Aleutians to pump the ridge up into Alaska and NW Canada, resulting trough downstream in central and eastern Canada with colder temps there. Even looks like there's a bit of a sag to the lines in the SW US probably indicating that a few of the members have a storm system at that time.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_60.png

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I don't have anybody else to ask but on here but what do you folks make of the crazy warmth above the Nino off the Baja? It's almost like a 2nd 'mini Nino'. I've saw some things that would say it points to a colder winter but I imagine it to be speculation mostly.

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I don't have anybody else to ask but on here but what do you folks make of the crazy warmth above the Nino off the Baja? It's almost like a 2nd 'mini Nino'. I've saw some things that would say it points to a colder winter but I imagine it to be speculation mostly.

 

According to Joe D, the warmth there leads to a colder look in the central and east, but it isn't an overwhelming signal and the El Nino itself leads to warmth in the central and east, so they kind of cancel each other out overall.

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According to Joe D, the warmth there leads to a colder look in the central and east, but it isn't an overwhelming signal and the El Nino itself leads to warmth in the central and east, so they kind of cancel each other out overall.

Cancelled out is better than warm I suppose. This winter still has no definitive signal at all yet. It really makes speculating on it quite useless for now.

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