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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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To start we need a NE PAC low over/south of the Aleutians instead of a ridge, that would be a start. We are seeing a shake up around New Years and then I hope we start seeing pac low develop. Weakened PV will help in coordination. We need everything that is blue and red/yellow to swap...so a true flip in the pattern.

Jomo - agree/disagree?

f45766eeb039eb90f30571e4ea31ffd4.jpg

 

 

That would help, but I'm not sure it's going to happen. The CFS had been indicating the Aleutian low position backing to the west, which would have been better, but recent runs don't really indicate that and keep Alaska into the SW stormy and I'm not seeing much PV weakening at this time.

 

cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_5.png

 

mrgolf had a good point. the MJO is currently in the 'warm' phases, but it's expected to end up around 7 before it dies. If it comes back out in the warm phases, we're pretty much screwed. 

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The 12z Euro parallel run had the snow/frozen over SE MO and NE AR. Quite a difference from the operational run which was over W KS to N KS. Hopefully this system sticks around for something to track at least.

 

Today's 12z operational Euro had a run that looked like yesterdays parallel 12z Euro run.

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

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Around 15 or so Euro ensemble members have frozen precip somewhere in or very near our area with that system.

 

The ensemble mean in the longer range (15 days) have the expected changes developing. Trough in the west goes away and there's more zonal or ridging developing across the west as the troughing near Alaska moves farther west. And it looks like some lower heights over us and across the south in general start developing.

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00z GFS is starting to sniff out a change. It went pretty hard towards the 12z GEM control run in the extreme long range when it comes to the -EPO developing late. 

 

And that's a great track on the 00z GEM for the storm, just wish it was colder and farther south.

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You know what I think, it seems like most of our rain makers so far since summer have been huge flooding storms. It's like we havent even gotten many smaller storms it seems like all of them have been monsters, maybe just maybe it will be cold enough eventually and one of these big storms will produce a hefty ammount of snow/ice. I am more worried about ice this season though, it seems eerily similiar to other ice storm winters I have been through. Yea I dont follow models like you guys do, I go on my instincts and what I have seen over my life in winters....how they panned out and how each is similiar. Or maybe I am just getting too damn old haha.

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You know what I think, it seems like most of our rain makers so far since summer have been huge flooding storms. It's like we havent even gotten many smaller storms it seems like all of them have been monsters, maybe just maybe it will be cold enough eventually and one of these big storms will produce a hefty ammount of snow/ice. I am more worried about ice this season though, it seems eerily similiar to other ice storm winters I have been through. Yea I dont follow models like you guys do, I go on my instincts and what I have seen over my life in winters....how they panned out and how each is similiar. Or maybe I am just getting too damn old haha.

Ice is kinda in the back of my mind as well. The key going forward will be trying to get enough of a ridge back over the western US and Canada to kick this pattern off the west coast and southwest US. Should be able to inject more cold into the pattern then. If it doesn't soon, winter is a write off but I think our region still has a decent chance of coming out of this funk.

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I'm not too good at this pattern we have yet but if I lived anywhere from just east of Tulsa to Durant, OK, I'd at least be considering the possibility of a disastrous ice event at this point. Can't wait til this thing gets handled better. One way or the other, it's going to be a pretty amazing storm I think.

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Western OK, TX Panhandle, Western and parts of central KS. The area that will more than likely get ice/snow. 

 

Euro Weeklies this afternoon to see if it completes the pattern reshuffle and if it sticks around or goes back to more of the same that we've been having after a brief change.

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Euro Weeklies:

 

Going out to Jan 21st today.... AO looks to say positive. PNA will probably be neutral to positive, and we may get some -EPO help as some point. Ridging looks to build over SW Canada and the western US at the end of the year as the Aleutian low backs to the west. This ridging pretty much stays in Canada the whole run. There's a better defined southern storm track, but it doesn't look like it clears the eastern US, so it looks like the coolest air and storminess is still located across the west, and then over to around our area, with areas to the east probably being warmer. Control run looks a lot like the ensemble mean until the end of the run.

 

Temps are around normalish to possibly a bit above, although the control temps are cooler. 

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So what you're saying is winter's still over? I hate this year.

 

Well the weeklies favor the western US as having the best shot of 'winter'. The best shot on the Plains will still be the favored W KS, W TX, W OK area. We'll have to see if the storm systems get going across the entire southern US or not. Coldest time of year, so with normalish temps and an active southern track. That might pay off at some point.

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Sounds like Dr. Cohen and his team are becoming more confident in a -AO.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

I like some of the stuff he's done with the snowcover and AO but it's really going to be a stretch to say that winter (DJF) will have averaged -AO when all is said and done on March 1. It's going to have to crash and stay put for the rest of winter and the best I've seen so far is neutral until mid-January, right?
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Only 300 more miles to go....

If we could get it just 50 miles south and east, Central OK might be in the money.... But, heck, looking at that potential snow coverage, I'd take the 300-mile shift because that would put you in the snow while still keeping us in heavy snow, too. Regardless of where it ends up, it is sure looking like a very large swath of this country is going to get dumped on. Here's hoping it's us.

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If we could get it just 50 miles south and east, Central OK might be in the money.... But, heck, looking at that potential snow coverage, I'd take the 300-mile shift because that would put you in the snow while still keeping us in heavy snow, too. Regardless of where it ends up, it is sure looking like a very large swath of this country is going to get dumped on. Here's hoping it's us.

300 is a safe number because I'm thinking there's going to be a pretty decent ice event somewhere in the mix. I'd hate to see you folks out there get hit with that mess again. Just gotta keep building the HP over the top of that thing.

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