JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What happened in 82-83 and 97-98 for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Pull us off the cliff JoMo. Throw us a bone or something! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Wow. Looking at 97-98, you would think it was this year. Identical storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don Sutherland continues to hold out some hope. Check out his latest post in the main forum thread. I backed away from the cliff a little bit...for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Pull us off the cliff JoMo. Throw us a bone or something! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A There's still Jan and Feb. and March. Need a storm system to track to our south and have just enough cold air around to give us snow. Look at what happened in SW Kansas yesterday, it was basically a blizzard with marginally cold air around, and we reach our coldest time of year in Jan anyway. There's actually a bit of snow or frozen precip on the 12z Euro on Dec 23rd into Christmas eve on the 12z run for parts of our immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The weeklies today will go into mid-Jan. It will probably look like what the CFS has been going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yah I still think we will get lucky sometime in Jan or feb. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 The weeklies today will go into mid-Jan. It will probably look like what the CFS has been going to. Is that the suppression we're looking for to keep these things from cutting to the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Is that the suppression we're looking for to keep these things from cutting to the lakes? It's working on a better look. Retrograding the troughing back west which is moving the ridging in Canada farther north and west. This will allow systems to come underneath, eventually, and it's a cooler look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's working on a better look. Retrograding the troughing back west which is moving the ridging in Canada farther north and west. This will allow systems to come underneath, eventually, and it's a cooler look. Well, fingers crossed then. Something's gotta give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Euro Weeklies: There's been some changes in the weeklies which go out to Jan 14th today. +AO and -PNA look to remain this run. Stormy in the west, all the way up into and well north of Alaska, with storm systems occasionally coming out into the Plains through the end of Dec. Looks like the troughing will end up back farther west into the SW US during the first week of Jan. I could see things warming up as ridging occurs ahead of that. Here's the change though. From about Jan 7th to the end of the run, there looks to be ridging over the NE PAC, up into Alaska. This is much different than the storminess that has sat there. This looks very much like a probable -EPO, which will probably build and dump cold air into the US. The only problem is, it's possible it dumps it into a big trough in the west and then it bleeds east with time. The control run is all over everywhere and hard to follow any type of stable pattern. EDIT: Temps look to generally average above normal until around the first week of Jan, then the cooler/colder air starts bleeding east from the western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Moving on to February. Still cancelling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Long time lurker. But I've noticed that when fall starts you all are super positive. Every year. However, by the time the first of December rolls around (still fall) you all cancel winter. At least wait until winter starts. It snowed in May a couple years back in this area. We can't have a historic winter every year. Two good storms and your at or above average. Give it some time. It's way to early to cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Tulsa finished Autumn with a temperature of 64.1. 22nd warmest in Tulsa's records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Long time lurker. But I've noticed that when fall starts you all are super positive. Every year. However, by the time the first of December rolls around (still fall) you all cancel winter. At least wait until winter starts. It snowed in May a couple years back in this area. We can't have a historic winter every year. Two good storms and your at or above average. Give it some time. It's way to early to cancel winter. Welcome MUWX! Didn't see your post earlier. You are right. I know it's only mid-December. I just get frustrated at seeing the winter's potential and not seeing it materialize. I'm seeing more signs of things to hope for in January and February though so there's a positive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Long time lurker. But I've noticed that when fall starts you all are super positive. Every year. However, by the time the first of December rolls around (still fall) you all cancel winter. At least wait until winter starts. It snowed in May a couple years back in this area. We can't have a historic winter every year. Two good storms and your at or above average. Give it some time. It's way to early to cancel winter. No snow before Christmas generally puts me in a bad mood. This warmth is just awful to someone that eagerly waits 9 months out of the year (dodging tornadoes) for the 3 or so months when it can snow. Now that we are in the season that it can snow, every day that passes is another day closer to the end of when it can snow. It would also be different if the models were showing something besides warmth, or just passing cold shots. But it would appear that there won't be a pattern change until at least early-mid January, and that's subject to change and it's uncertain if it will even happen. Give me one good snow before Christmas and I can wait the rest of winter for other snow chances. Make me wait, and I get impatient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Here's hoping Thurs evening! A slight chance of flurries before midnight. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 I agree with your above post JoMo. I think you've pretty much nailed my frustrations as well. Once January first rolls around, I'm on a 75 day countdown for the "normal" snow season. I still think snow will come but we have a good way to go to get there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Here's hoping Thurs evening! A slight chance of flurries before midnight. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 24 Sometimes these upper waves kick out stronger than expected and there's enough forcing to give us more than flurries. Especially those that come out of southern KS and sweep across. It could be nothing, but right now it's the only thing we've got for a while. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I'm the sort of weirdo who would trade every trace of snow for an entire season for snow falling Christmas Eve or Christmas morning. Even just an inch. However (and I probably say something similar a lot of years), Christmas is all about tradition, and our tradition around here is for bare ground and mildly chilly temps. Also, it's nice for folks traveling to be with family. I remember so many people around here unable to be with loved ones during the 2009 blizzard. Almost felt guilty about that in light of how amazing that storm was for me. All this is obviously compensation meant to keep me from the Grinch-mode, but let's make the best of things and hope Xmas at least trends a few degrees closer to seasonal averages. But hey, if it's 75 outside, I'll just crank the AC to 60 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC is still full steam ahead on colder. JMA weekly has updated as well. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Still shows the backing west of the Aleutian low and developing of the southern stream. Euro weeklies this afternoon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC is still full steam ahead on colder. JMA weekly has updated as well. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Still shows the backing west of the Aleutian low and developing of the southern stream. Euro weeklies this afternoon..... Must be in for one heck of a cold January and February then. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Must be in for one heck of a cold January and February then. Lol Hey all , I've been watching/reading/ lurking for a couple of months now in anticipation of positive snow possibilities that have not materialized YET . I hope this map is the break-through we have all been waiting for. I,m in the bah-humbug mood currently due to lack of cold/snow . But I am still holding out hope for the white stuff in any amount . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 For the JAMSTEC to be right, we'd have to have a very cold late half of Jan and all of Feb. I don't see that happening at this point. We're not getting much help with a -EPO (because it's an El Nino) or a -AO because the PV is so strong. El Nino does tend to beat on the PV over time and it may wear down, but it might not be enough, or it might end up being too late in the season to benefit from it. The CFS v2 is going to beat out most of the other models when it comes to Dec. The subtropical jet that usually cuts across the southern US has largely been a no-show which has kept the storm systems out to the west or to the north. We should see that develop by late Jan into Feb. No guarantees though as the models keep pushing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Is anybody on the ground in Northwest OK today? I am curious if any of those (mostly light) returns are actual snowflakes that are reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Is anybody on the ground in Northwest OK today? I am curious if any of those (mostly light) returns are actual snowflakes that are reaching the ground. According to observations, they are. And in SW KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Going out to Jan 17th today. +AO and a neutralish PNA look.....Ridging looks like it's going to start building into the GOA by the start of Jan. This ridging looks to strengthen and persist through mid-month. A possible -EPO look. Troughing will develop over the SW US, and persist through mid-month. It's a better look as actual colder air would come into play with any ejecting systems coming out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Man I hope so. Tks for updating. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Man I hope so. Tks for updating. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Yeah, it's not the greatest that could be, but it's a better look than what we've had. The coldest air is still going to be over the west, but it'll try to come east from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Anyone here follow Jim Flowers? He's thinking Arklatex storm around January 1. Will be interesting if we can get cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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