A Summer September to remember

[powderfreak]

Remember when this was our Sunday Monday LR. I was pumped for a warm weekend. Euro 7-10 is whack

 Mike Ventrice posted the old lR on Twitter. I have to give him credit before the whiny biatches say something

 

That image probably will be correct if its just a snap shot, lol.  If its valid at 6z Sunday... we'll be +5 to +10F at that time.  Normal low is in the 40s, and we'll likely be mid/upper 50s with rain.

[Ginx snewx]

NYC's warmest September was in 1961 at 73.5, with 1881 and 2005 only 0.2F behind and nothing else closer than 72.3.  '61 was hot at the start (94 and 95 on 1-2, great for our 2-a-day FB practices) and featured 92/92/94 on 10-12.  The month had 8 days reaching 90 and 12 with minima 70+.  It also had some cool spells, racking up 30 CDDs while the other two contenders had 3 and 6 respectively.

 

Edit:  Thru Sept 9, this year is running 1.5F warmer than 1961, with 6 days 90+.

They will need to average 66.7 the rest of the month to break the record

[powderfreak]

BTV has their mind on winter.  Unfortunately, temperatures will be just a little too warm to support snow.  Darn.

 

Hey but we got the fall's first mention of "snow" in an AFD . 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT FRIDAY...A DEEP WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...LUCKILY TEMPS ARE WAY TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW. MOST OF THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE ONLY AREA
SEEING QPF OF GREATER THAN 0.15 FOR THE DAY FOR THE PERIOD.

[J Paul Gordon]

Where is the talk about record breaking heat for next week coming from? Looks like above normal warm but nothing earth-shattering. 

[Ginx snewx]

Where is the talk about record breaking heat for next week coming from? Looks like above normal warm but nothing earth-shattering.

I asked yesterday but was shot.

[easternsnowman]

Where is the talk about record breaking heat for next week coming from? Looks like above normal warm but nothing earth-shattering. 

Agree I would'nt call temps 5 to 10 above normal for a couple of days earth shattering!

[Damage In Tolland]

Where is the talk about record breaking heat for next week coming from? Looks like above normal warm but nothing earth-shattering. 

From yesterday's AFD. Records are in the 80's some days... Wed-next Sat is low 80's +

 

Warmest days look like 85-88 and maybe one 90

 

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...CONSISTENT SIGNALS OF RIDGING. THINK

HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AGREE WITH THE CLIMATE

PREDICTION CENTER WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES SIGNAL

ANOMALOUS H85 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING THAT WE COULD

BREAK SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO MID- TO LATE-SEPTEMBER.

[Ginx snewx]

lol today

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING HEREAFTER...CONTINUED SIGNALS OF RIDGING ACROSS

THE AREA ENHANCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. PUSH OF

SW-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +14-16C ALONG THE W-

PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. STILL AGREE WITH CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF

ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. RECORD BREAKING? THINKING HIGHS UPWARDS

OF THE MID-80S WHICH FALLS SHY.

[dendrite]

From yesterday's AFD. Records are in the 80's some days... Wed-next Sat is low 80's +

 

Warmest days look like 85-88 and maybe one 90

 

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...CONSISTENT SIGNALS OF RIDGING. THINK[/size]

HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AGREE WITH THE CLIMATE

PREDICTION CENTER WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES SIGNAL

ANOMALOUS H85 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING THAT WE COULD

BREAK SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO MID- TO LATE-SEPTEMBER.

9/26/07 pushed 20C at H85. BDL had 93F (34C) that day. So you're going to want to see about 17C with good mixing. I think they'll fall just shy.

[Ginx snewx]

I think they'll fall just shy.

lol see above

[Ginx snewx]

PFs inside runner

AROUND SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS SYNOPTICALLY SIMILAR TO AN INSIDE-RUNNER

WINTER-WEATHER SETUP. INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN IS PROGGED AS DIFFLUENCE

PROCEEDS ABOVE THE CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT

OF HIGH THETA-E AIR TROWALING BACK TOWARDS A FAVORABLE DEFORMATION

ZONE BELOW THE LEFT-FRONT-QUAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET OVER UPSTATE

NY. WITH NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RIGHT-FRONT-QUAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-

JET AND DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE OCCULUSION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS

LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT-MODERATE WITH STRONGER FORCING WITH THE CLOSED

LOW TO THE W. SOME HINT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY LIKELY WITH COLUMN

COOLING...AM STILL LEANING TOWARDS A SWEEPING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN

SETUP AHEAD OF AN INITIAL WARM FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW.

TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF SUNDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY

MORNING...CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL FORCING KICK ACROSS

THE NE CONUS. ENHANCED ASCENT ABOVE A CONTINUING CYCLONIC BRANCH OF

THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DECENT VENTING ALOFT YIELDS THE

LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. THOUGH NOT BENEATH THE BETTER DEFORMATION WHICH

REMAINS N OF OUR FORECAST REGION...ANOTHER LIGHT-MODERATE RAINFALL

SETUP IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY SO WITH SIGNALS OF A MATURATION TO

DYING PHASE OF THE OCCLUDING LOW OVER UPSTATE NY AS A NEW LOW

PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS AT THE TRIPLE-POINT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S NEW

ENGLAND. SOME ACCOMPANYING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE HIGHER

THETA-E AIR CONTINUING TO TROWAL BACK INTO THE CLOSED LOW. MEAN

VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG. A HIGH SHEAR WITH LOW INSTABILITY SETUP

SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED. CIPS ANALOGS THOUGH DO NOT HIGHLIGHT MUCH

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WITHIN THE TOP ANALOGS TO THE

FORECAST OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

[Damage In Tolland]

9/26/07 pushed 20C at H85. BDL had 93F (34C) that day. So you're going to want to see about 17C with good mixing. I think they'll fall just shy.

To me Thurs and/or Fri will be 87-90 at usual spots. We'll see machine numbers come up as we get closer. Those ideas on here we've seen of 77-81 and dews never above 60 all week will be taken up

[J Paul Gordon]

To me Thurs and/or Fri will be 87-90 at usual spots. We'll see machine numbers come up as we get closer. Those ideas on here we've seen of 77-81 and dews never above 60 all week will be taken up

I wouldn't hold my breath. 77-81 is just warm and dews around 60 no big deal either. Maybe it will happen, but it still looks pretty much like warm but not exceptional.

[powderfreak]

Where is the talk about record breaking heat for next week coming from? Looks like above normal warm but nothing earth-shattering.

BTV has been mentioning possible record heat in AFD's...not your area but not too far either:

&& Long term /Monday night through Friday/... as of 244 am EDT Saturday...a dry...sunny...and very warm period of weather is expected for much of next week...with some near- record high temperatures possible. Large deep layer ridge will begin to build into the region Monday night and persist through much of the week before it gradually begins to break down and shift southward Thursday/Friday.

[powderfreak]

I wouldn't hold my breath. 77-81 is just warm and dews around 60 no big deal either. Maybe it will happen, but it still looks pretty much like warm but not exceptional.

You also have to start realizing that normals and records are going down quickly in September. Record heat for some areas may not mean 90s. Records are now in the 80s in spots outside the Torch zones. I personally don't think we get records next week but NWS has been mentioning it, so that's where folks are getting this idea.

My normal low next week will be 45F, so it's still a way above normal pattern especially if dews keep temps up 55-60F.

[moneypitmike]

Cringe-worthy track with this upcoming system if this were two months from now.  In mid-September, who cares?

[tamarack]

They will need to average 66.7 the rest of the month to break the record

 

Which is probably less than 2F above normal for that period - seems doable. 

Edit:  I'd be a tiny bit sad to see that too-hot-for-football (but we practiced anyway) month get dethroned.  Same as when 2010 took down 1966 as NYC's hottest met summer.  I've some vivid memories of how blazing the heat was that earlier summer, especially late June thru late July, and that it was a double play - driest JJA as well.  (And how the NE drought of the 1960s ended with a bang on Sept 21 that year, with a 5.5" rainstorm which ended with a crackling TS.)

[weathafella]

Which is probably less than 2F above normal for that period - seems doable. 

Edit:  I'd be a tiny bit sad to see that too-hot-for-football (but we practiced anyway) month get dethroned.  Same as when 2010 took down 1966 as NYC's hottest met summer.  I've some vivid memories of how blazing the heat was that earlier summer, especially late June thru late July, and that it was a double play - driest JJA as well.  (And how the NE drought of the 1960s ended with a bang on Sept 21 that year, with a 5.5" rainstorm which ended with a crackling TS.)

Summer of ''66. I remember the widespread 100+ 4th of July weekend. I went to Bradley beach with friends and you had to step on people's blanket to get to the water. This rather beautiful 20 year old in a little bikini stopped on ours but when she opened her mouth she sounded like the truck drivers in the neighborhood.....lol.

[Nittany88]

You also have to start realizing that normals and records are going down quickly in September. Record heat for some areas may not mean 90s. Records are now in the 80s in spots outside the Torch zones. I personally don't think we get records next week but NWS has been mentioning it, so that's where folks are getting this idea.

My normal low next week will be 45F, so it's still a way above normal pattern especially if dews keep temps up 55-60F.

 

Yeah the record high next Thursday is 84F at BTV and 80F at MPV. We should have no problem approaching those numbers. There's definitely a HUGE stepdown from this week till next in records, and Thursday is some low hanging fruit.

 

Record High for the 12th (today) is 90F, then the next several days go 92, 89, 92, 92, 84, 87, 85. No 90 degree days ever recorded at BTV after the 16th.

[J Paul Gordon]

ORH records for the time frame are near 90F and predicted highs are more than 5F below that. I'm still having trouble seeing records being broken. There is no doubt it is warmer than normal (which I guess is called a "torch" by many on the board). It just doesn't seem all that extraordinary to an old guy like me. Last week was a different story. 

Anyhow, lets get used to it. By December 10F+ anomalies will mean highs between 45 and 55 around here. Most folks will be jumping for joy. (Not me, but heck it will sure cut the heating bills)

[Ginx snewx]

ORH records for the time frame are near 90F and predicted highs are more than 5F below that. I'm still having trouble seeing records being broken. There is no doubt it is warmer than normal (which I guess is called a "torch" by many on the board). It just doesn't seem all that extraordinary to an old guy like me. Last week was a different story. 

Anyhow, lets get used to it. By December 10F+ anomalies will mean highs between 45 and 55 around here. Most folks will be jumping for joy. (Not me, but heck it will sure cut the heating bills)

since 2011 excepting 2012 have you noticed the seasons being 3-4 weeks out of whack, warmth lingers cold lingers, summer and winter with smaller number weeks of spring and fall? Probably anecdotal but seems that way to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

Th,Fri, Sat all look like 88-90 at BDL/TAN +20 to +22 850's

[Ginx snewx]

Th,Fri, Sat all look like 88-90 at BDL/TAN +20 to +22 850's

GEFS and  Euro Ens and this is for NYC, where did you get those numbers?

Euro Ens
Date [UTC]	        Mean	       	Std. Derivation
12.09.2015 12		11.4 °C		± 0.5 °C
13.09.2015 12		13.8 °C		± 0.9 °C
14.09.2015 12		5.6 °C		± 1.3 °C
15.09.2015 12		13.7 °C		± 0.9 °C
16.09.2015 12		14.3 °C		± 1.2 °C
17.09.2015 12		13.7 °C		± 1.1 °C
18.09.2015 12		14.4 °C		± 0.9 °C
19.09.2015 12		15.8 °C		± 1.4 °C
20.09.2015 12		15.1 °C		± 2.5 °C
21.09.2015 12		10.4 °C		± 3.6 °C
22.09.2015 12		9.9 °C		± 3.3 °C
 

Date [UTC]	Minimum	Mean	Maximum	Std. Derivation
12.09.2015 12	11.8 °C	12.2 °C	12.8 °C	± 0.2 °C
12.09.2015 18	11.7 °C	12.2 °C	12.8 °C	± 0.3 °C
13.09.2015 00	12.7 °C	13.3 °C	13.8 °C	± 0.3 °C
13.09.2015 06	13.2 °C	13.8 °C	14.4 °C	± 0.3 °C
13.09.2015 12	13.7 °C	14.2 °C	14.4 °C	± 0.2 °C
13.09.2015 18	10.2 °C	11.8 °C	13.3 °C	± 0.9 °C
14.09.2015 00	7.0 °C	8.7 °C	11.2 °C	± 1.2 °C
14.09.2015 06	6.0 °C	7.0 °C	8.6 °C	± 0.7 °C
14.09.2015 12	5.7 °C	6.6 °C	7.3 °C	± 0.5 °C
14.09.2015 18	6.7 °C	8.3 °C	9.7 °C	± 1.0 °C
15.09.2015 00	9.3 °C	10.7 °C	12.3 °C	± 0.8 °C
15.09.2015 06	11.8 °C	13.2 °C	14.3 °C	± 0.6 °C
15.09.2015 12	13.3 °C	14.2 °C	15.1 °C	± 0.4 °C
15.09.2015 18	14.4 °C	15.2 °C	15.8 °C	± 0.4 °C
16.09.2015 00	15.4 °C	15.8 °C	16.9 °C	± 0.3 °C
16.09.2015 06	14.2 °C	15.4 °C	16.6 °C	± 0.5 °C
16.09.2015 12	13.7 °C	14.7 °C	15.8 °C	± 0.5 °C
16.09.2015 18	13.9 °C	14.8 °C	16.2 °C	± 0.6 °C
17.09.2015 00	14.1 °C	14.8 °C	16.4 °C	± 0.6 °C
17.09.2015 06	13.2 °C	14.2 °C	15.7 °C	± 0.7 °C
17.09.2015 12	12.9 °C	13.8 °C	15.2 °C	± 0.6 °C
17.09.2015 18	13.2 °C	14.3 °C	15.7 °C	± 0.8 °C
18.09.2015 00	13.6 °C	14.8 °C	16.2 °C	± 0.7 °C
18.09.2015 06	12.8 °C	14.2 °C	16.1 °C	± 0.7 °C
18.09.2015 12	12.1 °C	13.9 °C	16.4 °C	± 0.9 °C
18.09.2015 18	12.7 °C	14.2 °C	16.1 °C	± 0.9 °C
19.09.2015 00	12.8 °C	14.9 °C	16.6 °C	± 0.9 °C
19.09.2015 06	12.8 °C	14.7 °C	16.6 °C	± 0.9 °C
19.09.2015 12	12.8 °C	14.3 °C	16.4 °C	± 0.9 °C
19.09.2015 18	12.6 °C	14.7 °C	16.6 °C	± 1.0 °C
20.09.2015 00	12.2 °C	14.9 °C	18.4 °C	± 1.5 ° 

[Damage In Tolland]

925's.. Not 850's

[Ginx snewx]

925's.. Not 850's

oh you wrote 850

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah me bad

[dendrite]

925's.. Not 850's

20C at 925...brutal.

[powderfreak]

Yeah the record high next Thursday is 84F at BTV and 80F at MPV. We should have no problem approaching those numbers. There's definitely a HUGE stepdown from this week till next in records, and Thursday is some low hanging fruit.

 

 

Oh yeah we'd certainly have no issue hitting those values.

 

I can't believe the record high at MPV is only 80F.  Man it really drops off this time of year.

[powderfreak]

ORH records for the time frame are near 90F and predicted highs are more than 5F below that.

 

Just looking at the ORH records, they seem high?  In NOWDATA is it the "Worecester Area" site through ThreadEx?

 

September 16...92F

September 17...89F

September 18...88F

September 19...88F

[powderfreak]

Yeah the record high next Thursday is 84F at BTV and 80F at MPV. We should have no problem approaching those numbers. There's definitely a HUGE stepdown from this week till next in records, and Thursday is some low hanging fruit.

 

Record High for the 12th (today) is 90F, then the next several days go 92, 89, 92, 92, 84, 87, 85. No 90 degree days ever recorded at BTV after the 16th.

 

Actually now that I'm looking at it, I see different numbers in the NOWdata...those numbers you wrote would be easy to get to on a few of those days.  But I'm seeing something different.

 

Like next Thursday it says 86F is the record high (the 17th), and 90F on Friday (the 18th)?

 

Edit:  Now I see the difference..."Burlington Area" on ThreadEx has your values, but the Burlington International Airport on NOWdata has higher values.