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Met Autumn BANTER


dmillz25

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Exactly.

I disagree though about an earlier statement that it's unprecedented that it rained on top on Mt Washington.

With a big cutter sure! But this was an offshore track in November. I'd say 99/100 times its at least some snow that high up in November. It's snowed there every month of the year including July.

Just making the point about just how truly warm it has been. Even way way up. So the old "it will mix down and create it's cold" argument doesn't have as much merit as usual

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With a big cutter sure! But this was an offshore track in November. I'd say 99/100 times its at least some snow that high up in November. It's snowed there every month of the year including July.

Just making the point about just how truly warm it has been. Even way way up. So the old "it will mix down and create it's cold" argument doesn't have as much merit as usual

I see your point but it's not unprecedented to not have a cold air source yet this time of the year.

Btw here's some stats from Mt Washington.

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/normals-means-and-extremes.aspx

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I see your point but it's not unprecedented not to have a cold air source yet this time of the year.

Btw here's some stats from Mt Washington.

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/normals-means-and-extremes.aspx

Thanks for the link. Not hard to get it to snow up there. Just goes to show how important elevation is. That's why it can be 60 in LA and ripping in the mountains just to the east. I think this is the big winter inland elevated locations have been waiting for. Lots of moisture and marginal cold during the first half of winter and bam its mt. Poconos time to shine. Even at 1/3 mt Washingtons elevation. Could be the difference between pouring rain and 40 and a paste bomb and 30.

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CFS 2mT ensemble mean for our area does not even touch the normal line for the next 60 days.   The area above the normal line and the area below it, do not seem to equal out till Jan.  10.   Obviously all 60 days will not be above the normal.   I think about 15-20 might be normal or below.   November looked like this and we will end up with  6 normal to below normal days.

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0z GFS has a coastal storm for Dec 5. Looks like a paste bomb for inland areas. Might be too warm for the coast but the signal is there from all of the models for a storm around that date.

 

Yeah, just not a good setup for coastal plain snow. The cold air source is very putrid. Would need an almost perfect track and a stalled out bombing ULL for the cities IMO with this setup. Not impossible, but wouldn't be that excited. 500mb is beautiful on this run though. 

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0z GFS has a coastal storm for Dec 5. Looks like a paste bomb for inland areas. Might be too warm for the coast but the signal is there from all of the models for a storm around that date.

Anthony , it's a day 10 OP run. There's no signal found on any of the ensembles .

But we appreciate that you dropped this in the banter its where it belongs , but keep em coming.

Happy Thanksgiving to most.

Peanut Butter.

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