Amped Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Reminds me of Don, it's making bugs dizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The LLC is really cruising. This is very interesting! I'm not sure how the moon phases factor in to developing cyclonic systems... there would most likely be some effects though perhaps not forecast-relevant. Looking at the water vapor and infrared images, the location and behavior of this circulation are very hard to notice! The convection behind it looks very substantial but as the forecast is saying, it may be integrated with other gyres; tomorrow will help us to see what shape the system really is in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again......... Not sure we can crown any model given how inconsistent all of them have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The LLC is really cruising. That looks more like an eddy spinoff to me, albeit a strong one. Might be the old LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again......... This does make some sense! There is convection and circulation but fewer tropical traits than one might expect at this stage. I think the following is accurate but i would rather indicate that it is just a bit more uncertain than i feel is necessary to present where the storm is very much active right now. I have not looked at water vapor returns from previous years' Cape Verde type systems but Erika is very much appearing at least to be the westernmost portion of a TUTT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not sure we can crown any model given how inconsistent all of them have been. Fair point. For the past few days, it seems every time the GFS goes weak, the Euro goes strong and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again......... It seems like over the years middle range systems like this once they get nearer to near terms they always get corrected s like that and that's what's really happening this thing. It's gotten corrected so much it's intermingling with the islands and that usually is toxic. We'll see if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well they totally screwed that analysis and forecast up, that's for damn sure. Doesn't make a huge difference but surprising in a bad way. I do not see several swirls, there is 1 clearly defined center on radar and satellite. If they're getting confused by mid-level vortices in convection that's kind've sad. Yes, the National Hurricane Center is "confused by mid-level vortices in convection", but you've got it on lock based on your radar analysis. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 In any event the GFS rams the center right into Hispaniola and the system seems to regenerate North of Haiti in about 24 hours. Based on current trends, I will be very surprised if the COC is able to avoid a direct landfall, so to speak, on the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. As a result, it greatly diminishes my confidence in Erika's subsequent prospects for either significant intensification (if the COC can remain intact) or possible regeneration. At this point, I'd put the probabilities for Erika's survival through the DR and/or Haiti at an even 50%. The broad size of the overall circulation is the main reason I might lean more towards it's ultimate survival, as a TC, past Hispaniola. All that being said, the reality is that no one truly knows just how detrimental interaction with Hispaniola will be on Erika, and how quickly she may recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Based on current trends, I will be very surprised if the COC is able to avoid a direct landfall, so to speak, on the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. As a result, it greatly diminishes my confidence in Erika's subsequent prospects for either significant intensification (if the COC can remain intact) or possible regeneration. At this point, I'd put the probabilities for Erika's survival through the DR and/or Haiti at an even 50%. The broad size of the overall circulation is the main reason I might lean more towards it's ultimate survival, as a TC, past Hispaniola. All that being said, the reality is that no one truly knows just how detrimental interaction with Hispaniola will be on Erika, and how quickly she may recover. Hopefully it helps clean up the multiple vorticies so we can start from a fresh slate over the warmest waters in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GGEM on the weak into FL bandwagon....... The UKMET also. The fat lady is warming up her vocal chords.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GGEM on the weak into FL bandwagon....... I wouldn't quite group the GGEM in yet. It keeps the center very close to the coast and intensifies the system as it moves North dropping 10-20" of rain all along Florida and into GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Hopefully it helps clean up the multiple vorticies so we can start from a fresh slate over the warmest waters in the world. I genuinely like your "glass half full" perspective, if Erika can't avoid significant interaction with Hispaniola. It's arguably one of the worst places in the world (certainly in the NATL basin) for a TC to make a direct hit; for both the well-being of the citizens in the two countries and that of the TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Almost like a multi-vortex tornado. Several vorticies spinning up and dying off until one of them comes in, deepens the pressure and bombs it out. I've seen videos of this happening and I've seen videos where the tornado can't get its act together and it just dies out. Most likely the case with Erika if it runs through Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelathos Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If the radar based LLC is rapidly moving west, then is it not ejecting itself from the rest of the system? In previous years this has been the indication of a collapse of the tropical system. If it survives such changes to its structure, would it reform further south towards the NHC placement? I assume that would move the forecasted tracks further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If the radar based LLC is rapidly moving west, then is it not ejecting itself from the rest of the system? In previous years this has been the indication of a collapse of the tropical system. If it survives such changes to its structure, would it reform further south towards the NHC placement? I assume that would move the forecasted tracks further west. I don't think anyone, including the NHC completely understands exactly what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The 00z HWRF is better than 18z which was a complete disaster, stalled off the coast Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like landfall Sunday night near Miami at 45kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like landfall Sunday night near Miami at 45kts. and rainfall of 4-8 inches would be consistent with what the Islands received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 2am Discussion DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika waslocated near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erika ismoving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward thewest-northwest is anticipated later today, and this general motionis expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, thecenter of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next severalhours and move near or over portions of the Dominican Republic latertoday.Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)from the center. St. Thomas recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph(78 km/h), and a Puerto Rico Seismic Network station at YabucoaHarbor in southeastern Puerto Rico recently reported a wind gust of47 mph (76 km/h).The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting the VirginIslands and portions of Puerto Rico, and will continue for the nextseveral hours. These conditions should spread westward acrossportions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, andthe Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Tropicalstorm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas by lateSaturday.RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible acrossportions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, andthe southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could causelife-threatening flash floods and mud slides.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.$Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GFTI, et al. are on crack if they think Erika passes directly over Pico Duarte and the tallest mountain range in Hispaniola, then goes on to become a Category 4 storm. Hell, she would be lucky to be pissing droplets after that pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Good consensus that whatever survives the islands will affect Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 "This chick is toast!" - Peter Venkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GFTI, et al. are on crack if they think Erika passes directly over Pico Duarte and the tallest mountain range in Hispaniola, then goes on to become a Category 4 storm. Hell, she would be lucky to be pissing droplets after that pass. It's not quite by itself although I would gather that all of these models come from the same mold so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 People need to remember that there is literally no core for Hispaniola to disrupt... Erika is much more likely to survive or regenerate just based on that alone. Plus, it very much depends on where exactly a TC crosses Hispaniola as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 People need to remember that there is literally no core for Hispaniola to disrupt... Erika is much more likely to survive or regenerate just based on that alone. Plus, it very much depends on where exactly a TC crosses Hispaniola as well. At this point it looks like it will do directly over the heart of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's not quite by itself although I would gather that all of these models come from the same mold so to speak. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html GFDL GFDL Hurricane Model Forecast Track/Intensity GFDI Previous GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr GHMI Previous Intensity-Modified GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr GFDT GFDL Forecast Using a Different Vortex Tracking Algorithm GFTI Previous GFDT Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr GFDN Navy-Initialized Version of the GFDL Hurricane Model GFNI Previous Navy-Initialized GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr GFDE Extrapolated GFDL Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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