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Tropical Storm Erika


mappy

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12z UKIE has Erika in the Bahamas on Sunday... landfall or close to it near Cape Canaveral, FL/Melbourne, FL area on Monday 12z as its moving NW

We are sailing out of Port Canaveral at approximately 4:30 p.m. on Sunday heading to the Western Caribbean....this could be interesting.

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The advertised pattern is definitely more interesting than Danny but that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot yet. 

 

I agree. There is no glaring steering feature in place through the next week+. Ensemble h5 and mslp plots leave the door open for a wide variety of solutions. The only outlier track imo would be an into the gulf track. 

 

The slow strengthening is more of a concern than anything else. Can't really worry about impact if the storm never really gets going beyond a weak Cat 1. 

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I agree. There is no glaring steering feature in place through the next week+. Ensemble h5 and mslp plots leave the door open for a wide variety of solutions. The only outlier track imo would be an into the gulf track. 

 

The slow strengthening is more of a concern than anything else. Can't really worry about impact if the storm never really gets going beyond a weak Cat 1. 

Yes -- remember you mentioning it a few days ago too. I'm not entirely sold it will even amount to much yet given its appearance thus far and Nino climo but often it's better to get them to wait till they're closer in if you want a big hit on the US.  Would be fascinating to get the first Cat3+ strike in 80 million years during a godzilla nino. Shoot we've already reached NOAA's forecast of 0-1 major this year. :P

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I agree. There is no glaring steering feature in place through the next week+. Ensemble h5 and mslp plots leave the door open for a wide variety of solutions. The only outlier track imo would be an into the gulf track. 

 

The slow strengthening is more of a concern than anything else. Can't really worry about impact if the storm never really gets going beyond a weak Cat 1. 

 

a weak cat 1? no. i was specially told to go back to school because i cannot read models that had it at a cat1

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I could see a further west/GOM track if this stays really weak, but I agree, clear outlier right now. I want to see if the euro still sees Erika survive the trek at 12z. It'd be funny if it went from bomb to open wave.

 

Nah, don't worry about ops outside of the typical d3-4 window. 

 

It's interesting that there's actually a real chance for a US landfall with this one. HP placement and the closed 591dm ridge in the atlantic is pretty well agreed upon with the latest ens runs @ d6+ and so is the broad (albeit weak) ridging in the east half of the conus. 

 

I though last night's euro ens were encouraging (assuming a real storm survives the trip through the bahamas). With this kind of patter you would think any decent cane would have it's sights on the coast from n fl - obx. 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_7.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_atl_7.png

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You seem to be driving it...!

 

If you go back about 4 days, GFDL had a very similar storm in a very similar place... for Danny....

 

thank you. posting an awful model that shows a hurricane when both GFS and Euro have nothing is a prime example of hype and being a weenie. 

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I know we rehash this every year, but I've never really understood the whole rooting for a US landfall by a hurricane thing. I guess those that do have never really lived in hurricane prone areas to have a grasp on the devastation and suffering they cause people.

We don't root for death and destruction. We are weather enthusiasts and we realize that we have no control in the situation, so we embrace whatever Mother nature has in store for us. We study it because it interests us and most of us have felt this fascination for severe weather since early childhood.

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I know we rehash this every year, but I've never really understood the whole rooting for a US landfall by a hurricane thing. I guess those that do have never really lived in hurricane prone areas to have a grasp on the devastation and suffering they cause people.

 

 

The only thing I'm rooting for is a major up the bay and left turn at the mouth of the potomac with a 14th St bridge landfall. I'm not rooting for FL/SC/NC etc. But for my hopeful outcome they are simply in the way if the track isn't perfect. So I'll be very bummed if they get hit and we don't. 

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The only thing I'm rooting for is a major up the bay and left turn at the mouth of the potomac with a 14th St bridge landfall. I'm not rooting for FL/SC/NC etc. But for my hopeful outcome they are simply in the way if the track isn't perfect. So I'll be very bummed if they get hit and we don't. 

From personal experience with Sandy you're going to want to be at least 75-100 miles North of the center once it reaches that latitude. Getting a completely warm core system North of VA beach is a challenge in of its self. 

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We don't root for death and destruction. We are weather enthusiasts and we realize that we have no control in the situation, so we embrace whatever Mother nature has in store for us. We study it because it interests us and most of us have felt this fascination for severe weather since early childhood.

+1. And what Bob said lol.
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