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Erika 2015


jburns

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Well the 5 day track is certainly a eyebrow raiser, but the models do all indicate a recurve, a very close recurve. Of course the models have been shifting west with the recurve just about every run so one or two more runs and its a hit.....likely the best chance for a land falling cane in the SE in quite some time.  

 

Here of the 06Z spaghetti plots and intensity forecast....

 

 

 

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I honestly see nothing wrong with the EURO track.  **as of now**  I think that is more than possible.  **IF** Erika can hold it together.  I trust the euro much more than GFS for synoptic features.  

 

I also think, the best spot for this to intensify, if it does make cane status, is on its approach to the Bahamas.  The area should be well ventilated from the trof split to its SW and W and the upper ridge building over the top.  

 

Right now, Erika looks pretty bad!  Its also driving west a good clip..might hit the islands.

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There are models ( GFS) that kill Erika and others that go nuts with it ( EURO), the HWRF and GFDL are also pretty agressive. Sounds like the Euro is slower since it has the storm off the coast day 10 and the GFS has it being killed north of the Antilles but then appears to bring it back over Florida and then gets nutty with it

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082506&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=187

 

HWRF is much more :lmao:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=187

 

as is the GFDL

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082506&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=187

 

The fact the NHC slowly brings it up in strength suggest they are concerned with the shear and its impact.....but its hard to ignore the models suggesting big cane too......

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New update on my Twitter and Facebook pages this morning.  Erika looking rough now, but I think its got an interesting life ahead of her.  I still think the best chances for significant strengthening will be as it approaches the Bahamas.  SE needs to keep an eye on this one IMHO  **if its still a TC at that point*

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The 06z GFS tracks Erica into the E Gulf, across Florida and then up the coast, giving NYC a close miss. I would no longer put it in the destroy Erika camp.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_45.png

 

It does show her dissipate around the leewards then reforms it over Florida or in the eastern GOM then off the east coast moving SE maybe before doing a S curve up off the east coast.....you get dizzy trying to follow it. Hopefully it will smooth out over the next few runs lol.....

 

If the Euro is right and there is a sub 950 storm off the SE coast with a blocking ridge building in off the NE coast this will end up a mega thread for sure.

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2 mins · 

Here's a 5 day water vapor loop, showing Danny and now, Erika. The pink color indicates very dry air, which probably helped kill off Danny. But that dry air is disappearing, moving west, in tandem, with the next storm.

 

 

https://video.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xlp1/v/t42.1790-2/11941446_1120799811283406_832190966_n.mp4?efg=eyJybHIiOjEzMDMsInJsYSI6NTEyfQ%3D%3D&rl=1303&vabr=724&oh=3b6e0d47b44df990fcd8e07055f92078&oe=55DCAC47

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Interesting ensemble plot that @MJVentrice  posted on Twitter this morning. Basically putting all the Euro Ensemble members together. Real question in my mind is how well does it survive the shear. Already taking a toll on the system in reference to the convection being displaced to the south as 10-20kts of shear impacts it from the north. 

post-7755-0-86006500-1440522142_thumb.jp

post-7755-0-32964600-1440522289_thumb.pn

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Seems like Erika should stay relatively weak until it reaches the Bahamas...I really think it could take off big time with that prof splitting out (in NE) and then backing SW over EGOM.  Should be sitting just SE of FL...where does it go?  I think it could get trapped.

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was it that bad?

Yep and worse! I was living in Gastonia at the time and stayed up all night watching the storm and it was rough! Tree damage like I've never seen before and we had no power for 9 days and missed about 10 days of school. Wind gusts peaked at 70-85 , I believe I have read! The forward speed was quick and that's what kept the winds up that strong over land! A memory that will last a lifetime for me!
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