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August 1st-7th Severe Weather Threat

HillsdaleMIWeather

By HillsdaleMIWeather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

Owendale tornado in southwestern Huron was verified as a EF-1.

 

Also APX's summary is pretty good http://www.weather.gov/apx/2015Aug2recap

Very good summary.

 

 

  • The largest hail reported was 4.25", or the size of a softball, seven miles north of West Branch at 4:55 pm. The large hail was reported by trained spotters and members of the public. There were several reports of damage to vehicles and other property. At the time of the event, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect for all of Ogemaw County, issued at 4:33 pm. Additional reports of 1.00" to 2.00" hail were received from law enforcement, emergency managers, trained spotters and the public across multiple locations in northern Michigan.
  • The 4.25" hail observed seven miles north of West Branch was the largest documented hail stone ever to impact northern Michigan since records began in 1950 and the largest since 1998 when a 3.50" hail stone was recorded in Arenac County.

 

Wow.

hail%20-%20West%20Branch%20-%20Shelly%20

hail2%20-%20West%20Branch%20-%20Shelly%2

largest%20hail%20stone(3).png

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

Posted
Posted

Not in our subforum, but I thought it was an interesting shot from Cranston, RI.  East Coasters always have to be different:

 

attachicon.gifCranstonRI.jpg

I wonder how old that tree was. It has to be very old because I'm sure it takes a while for a tree's roots to cover the whole yard. Can you imagine the sound it made when it was falling over? Holy crap

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SchaumburgStormer

SchaumburgStormer

Posted
Posted

I wonder how old that tree was. It has to be very old because I'm sure it takes a while for a tree's roots to cover the whole yard. Can you imagine the sound it made when it was falling over? Holy crap

Yeah, you have to think that it was very old, enough to completely carpet the yard with roots tough enough to rip out the sod. That, or they just had the yard sodded last year, lol.

 

Regardless, cool photo as the grass looks like carpet rolled up; but likely a b*tch to clean up and not covered by insurance.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

no kidding. You guys have killed it too, heck of a job. Nobody's ever talking about how LOT dropped the ball or armchair quarterbacking you guys. You leave no room for it. And this ain't no football game, it's life or death. You should be proud.

Sent from my iPhone

Thanks for the thoughts. Always been proud to be a part of the NWS, but even more so in a season like this.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Closeup of a rather large wedge in Ontario on Sunday. Lucky thing it was only an EF2.

The tornado was only 200 metres or 650 feet wide

Spun up quick on the ground for 7km. No tornado warning. It demolished two houses, but everyone is OK. Precariously close to Palmerston, but it only affected Teviotdale which is a crossroads hamlet of maybe 5 houses.

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Tim from Springfield (IL)

Tim from Springfield (IL)

Posted
Posted

FWIW we might as well add this weekend to the thread--the latest SPC D2 does have a slight risk from roughly Galesburg, IL westward across the southern 2/3 of IA, far north MO, back to central NE--including a small hatched area in SW IA.  Plus a marginal threat at present in the heart of this subforum for Sunday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

SPC AC 071730   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL   PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO   THE MIDWEST...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH   PLANS...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...   ...SUMMARY...   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL   PLAINS TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH   PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES.   ...SYNOPSIS...   ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE   SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...A PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY STRONG CORRIDOR   OF RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT   BASIN/ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES   ON SATURDAY.     ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST...   AN MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH   LATE TONIGHT...AND THE REMNANTS THEREOF WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED   ACROSS EASTERN NEB/IA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. MCV-AIDED SUBSEQUENT   REDEVELOPMENT/REINTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IL. HOWEVER...A   MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO   OCCUR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS   EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA AND POSSIBLY NEARBY NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO   IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW-AIDED SURFACE TRIPLE POINT. ON THE SOUTHERN   EDGE OF EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...A   MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO STRONG   DESTABILIZATION /2000-4500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ DURING THE AFTERNOON.   WHERE STORMS DEVELOP/INCREASE...A BAND OF SEASONALLY STRONG   MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE   OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO RISK...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY AN   EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/RESULTANT EFFECTIVE FRONT ASIDE FROM   RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS/SRH WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL. A MIXED   MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT OVERALL   FORCING WILL TEND TO BE MODEST/ AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING BOWING   SEGMENTS MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO   IL. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ENHANCED RISK/ MAY BE   WARRANTED IN THE DAY 1 TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEB/IA AND   POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO PENDING EARLY-SATURDAY DETAILS. [ . . . ]D3: DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0230 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE   MIDWESTERN U.S....   ...SUMMARY...   A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS   THE MIDWEST.   ...SYNOPSIS...   A PERSISTENT LONGER-WAVELENGTH/BACKGROUND UPPER FLOW PATTERN --   FEATURING A WRN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE/ERN TROUGH -- IS EXPECTED TO   PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. DAY 3...THOUGH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE   FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED WITH TIME.  THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS   A LOW JUST OFF THE SWRN CANADA/NWRN U.S. COAST ADVANCES GRADUALLY   SEWD...WHILE A TROUGH OVER ONTARIO BEGINS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE   GREAT LAKES.     AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THE PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY   WEAK/NONDESCRIPT THROUGH THE PERIOD.   ...THE MIDWEST...   A CONTINUATION OF THE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO OVER THE CENTRAL   U.S. IS EVIDENT THIS PERIOD...AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PRIOR   TO -- AND CONTINUING INTO -- THE START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD ARE   EXPECTED WITHIN THE FASTER BELT OF FLOW AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF   THE S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE ALOFT.  WITH THAT SAID...ONE AREA WHERE   SOME CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE RISK COULD EVOLVE APPEARS TO EXIST   ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AN ONGOING AREA OF   CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE IL VICINITY EARLY...WITH STORMS   ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES THROUGH THE DAY.    WHILE DOWNSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION TO   SOME DEGREE...CONTINUED BELT OF ENHANCED /30 TO 40 KT/ WNWLY   ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW   STRONGER STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING   HOURS.   ..GOSS.. 08/07/2015
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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

FWIW we might as well add this weekend to the thread--the latest SPC D2 does have a slight risk from roughly Galesburg, IL westward across the southern 2/3 of IA, far north MO, back to central NE--including a small hatched area in SW IA. Plus a marginal threat at present in the heart of this subforum for Sunday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

SPC AC 071730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLANS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...A PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY STRONG CORRIDOR
   OF RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT
   BASIN/ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES
   ON SATURDAY.  

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST...
   AN MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
   LATE TONIGHT...AND THE REMNANTS THEREOF WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED
   ACROSS EASTERN NEB/IA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. MCV-AIDED SUBSEQUENT
   REDEVELOPMENT/REINTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IL. HOWEVER...A
   MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
   OCCUR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA AND POSSIBLY NEARBY NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO
   IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW-AIDED SURFACE TRIPLE POINT. ON THE SOUTHERN
   EDGE OF EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...A
   MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION /2000-4500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   WHERE STORMS DEVELOP/INCREASE...A BAND OF SEASONALLY STRONG
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO RISK...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY AN
   EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/RESULTANT EFFECTIVE FRONT ASIDE FROM
   RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS/SRH WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL. A MIXED
   MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT OVERALL
   FORCING WILL TEND TO BE MODEST/ AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING BOWING
   SEGMENTS MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO
   IL. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ENHANCED RISK/ MAY BE
   WARRANTED IN THE DAY 1 TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEB/IA AND
   POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO PENDING EARLY-SATURDAY DETAILS. [ . . . ]

D3:


 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWESTERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS
   THE MIDWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PERSISTENT LONGER-WAVELENGTH/BACKGROUND UPPER FLOW PATTERN --
   FEATURING A WRN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE/ERN TROUGH -- IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. DAY 3...THOUGH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE
   FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED WITH TIME.  THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS
   A LOW JUST OFF THE SWRN CANADA/NWRN U.S. COAST ADVANCES GRADUALLY
   SEWD...WHILE A TROUGH OVER ONTARIO BEGINS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES.  

   AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THE PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK/NONDESCRIPT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...THE MIDWEST...
   A CONTINUATION OF THE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO OVER THE CENTRAL
   U.S. IS EVIDENT THIS PERIOD...AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PRIOR
   TO -- AND CONTINUING INTO -- THE START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD ARE
   EXPECTED WITHIN THE FASTER BELT OF FLOW AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
   THE S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE ALOFT.  WITH THAT SAID...ONE AREA WHERE
   SOME CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE RISK COULD EVOLVE APPEARS TO EXIST
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AN ONGOING AREA OF
   CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE IL VICINITY EARLY...WITH STORMS
   ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES THROUGH THE DAY. 
   WHILE DOWNSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION TO
   SOME DEGREE...CONTINUED BELT OF ENHANCED /30 TO 40 KT/ WNWLY
   ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   STRONGER STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 08/07/2015

Or use the short term severe thread...

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Third tornado confirmed from August 2 2015 in Southwest Ontario.

EF2 near Lebanon, Wellington County with a 5km track.

Other tornadoes include EF2 in Teviotdale also in Wellington Countt and EF1 near Marsville, Dufferin County.

This is actually the highest number of E/F2 tornadoes on a single day in Ontario since August 20 2009

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