Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Severe weather potential July 18-20


RyanDe680

Recommended Posts

A very narrow window early this afternoon for storms to pop up here.

 

The convective temperature per the 12z DTX sounding is 85*F, assuming a dewpoint of 69*F. WE're in that ball park now. MLCAPE values have risen to 2000 J/KG with LIs of -7.

 

Had full sunshine most of the morning, but a low CU field has rapidly filled in in the last 15 minutes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 196
  • Created
  • Last Reply

MD out for northern OH. Graphic says watch likely by 20z, the actual text says watch possible... 40%, and their discussion says watch likely by 21z. 

 

mcd1482.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHWEST
PA AND FAR WESTERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191811Z - 192015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A STRONG WIND AND HAIL
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
NY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWEST IND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV OVER WEST-CENTRAL
IND AND IN A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN OH INTO NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY IS MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITH
TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST AND MAY
EVENTUALLY CROSS LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORM MODE AND STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015


ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON 41408357 41728249 42118080 42497966 42987807 42797772
42187754 41727766 41197834 40897910 40278113 39998344
40258417 40968408 41408357 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z DTX sounding... :facepalm:

 

 

 

18z BUF sounding...

 

 

The DTX sounding shows some nice potential for severe storms with that 45 kt wind vector under 500mb. It seems as though there will be nothing to show for it. Minor blip on radar near Wyandotte (Michsnowfreak)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a tornado warning just SE of Cincinnati about an hour ago... the supercell is still going and has maintained broad rotation but no tornado warning at the moment. I managed to take some pictures of the tornadic supercell when it was looking pretty serious. I was about 30 miles northwest of the cell, looking southeast.

 

UKhcm6c.jpg

3RcMwjd.jpg

gYnFGzn.jpg

iacUliq.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't know how CLE issued a severe warning on the cell south of Tiffin Ohio. Garden variety cell with no reports was just a waste of time

I saw a wind damage report from Hancock Co. DCAPE was strong and those cells they warned had some decent cores for a while so the warning seemed warranted albeit marginal.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The DTX sounding shows some nice potential for severe storms with that 45 kt wind vector under 500mb. It seems as though there will be nothing to show for it. Minor blip on radar near Wyandotte (Michsnowfreak)

 

For the Detroit area, this just hasn't been our season for severe weather action.

 

There have been several opportunies in which the instability was there and the dynamics were there, but they can't seem to happen in conjunction at an ideal time of day.

 

We're past the prime climatological time for severe weather (although in the past couple of seasons, August has been fairly active), so the chances of getting in on anything from here on out are steadily diminishing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the Detroit area, this just hasn't been our season for severe weather action.

There have been several opportunies in which the instability was there and the dynamics were there, but they can't seem to happen in conjunction at an ideal time of day.

We're past the prime climatological time for severe weather (although in the past couple of seasons, August has been fairly active), so the chances of getting in on anything from here on out are steadily diminishing.

I'm rather surprised that things didn't go here in NE Ohio today...we had just is much instability but just slightly weak dynamics and shear to go along with better frontal timing but it just didn't work. Maybe the MCS across southern Ohio helped limit things along the front up here.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models did a pretty terrible job with today's setup.  They had consistently shown much better instability further north, but have since squashed it well to the south.  Looks like a non-event for IA and the northern 2/3rds of IL now.  Looks like a snoozer of a pattern the next several days compared to what we've been spoiled with lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two EF-0's confirmed by LOT for Saturday...

 

0219 PM TORNADO 2 NNE HARVARD 42.45N 88.60W  
07/18/2015 MCHENRY IL NWS STORM SURVEY  
 
SATURDAY 7/18/2015 BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO. PATH WIDTH 50  
YARDS. PATH LENGTH 0.1 MILES. MAXIMUM WINDS 70 MPH.  
SPOTTER REPORTS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION AND  
RADAR DATA USED TO DETERMINE DETAILS.  
 
0238 PM TORNADO 3 WSW HEBRON 42.46N 88.48W  
07/18/2015 MCHENRY IL NWS STORM SURVEY  
 
SATURDAY 7/18/2015 BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO. PATH WIDTH 50  
YARDS. PATH LENGTH 0.1 MILES. MAXIMUM WINDS 70 MPH.  
 
SPOTTER REPORTS AND RADAR DATA USED TO DETERMINE DETAILS.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two EF-0's confirmed by LOT for Saturday...

We were close to getting on the Hebron one but I'd say the marginal time on ground, rating and size are reflective of how much of a sloppy mess things were congealing into. Visibility was junk too.

Still interesting that they were able to get out there and actually find the paths of these two weaklings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...